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DMN: Will defense find rhythm against Oklahoma State?

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TCU prediction: Will defense find rhythm against Oklahoma State?​

Sarah Smith

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Oklahoma State at TCU​

When: 6 p.m. Saturday at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Fort Worth, Texas
Records: TCU 5-4 (3-3); Oklahoma State 3-6 (0-6)
Last meeting: TCU topped Oklahoma State in 2OT 43-40 on Nov. 15, 2022.
TV: FS1

What’s at stake?

This is a low-risk, high-reward matchup.

TCU remains on the brink of bowl eligibility after losing to Baylor last Saturday in a total defensive collapse. Josh Hoover operated a high-powered offense, but once again, the defense couldn’t stop the run game. All of Baylor’s scores were rushing touchdowns.

Oklahoma State started this season 3-0 and was regarded as one of the top teams in the Big 12. This narrative quickly turned for the worse as the Cowboys have won zero games since beginning conference play. This team has quarterback struggles, but threatens an upset with a successful RB unit.

The Cowboys came close to handing the then non-ranked BYU Cougars their first loss of the season, but were outscored 24-14 in the second half. OSU has lost by 10 or more points in four of their six losses.

Related:College football Week 11 predictions: Texas Tech-Colorado, UT-Florida, Alabama-LSU, more

When TCU has the ball

When all goes right for TCU’s offense, it operates like one of the best units in the country.

Against Baylor, Hoover played at a high level and didn’t fumble or throw an interception. He has 21 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions on the season.

Hoover continued to connect with Jack Bech, TCU’s leading receiver. He recorded 98 receiving yards against Baylor last week.

WR Savion Williams continues to succeed in his dual-position role, creating opportunities on the ground and through the air. Williams has been a more productive rusher than the RB room over the past few games. He’s the team’s second leading rusher with 213 rushing yards on 29 attempts and is averaging 7.3 yards per carry.

The other RBs in circulation, Trent Battle, Cam Cook and Jeremy Payne average 4.4 yards or less per carry this season.

Williams’ played QB during his senior year at Marshall High School and led the team to a district championship. His QB talent showed against Baylor, as he connected with Bech for a 6-yard passing touchdown.

TCU’s offense consistently plays at a high level and is expected to take over OSU’s defense.

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Turnovers have been a huge problem for the Cowboys to find momentum. QB Alan Bowman has recorded one or more interceptions in eight straight games. He sits at 15 passing touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

Oklahoma State’s receiving corps has been strong with WR Brennan Presley leading the room with 595 receiving yards on 62 receptions and seven touchdowns.

RB Ollie Gordon II is the source of production on offense. The 6-foot-2 RB has nine rushing touchdowns and 593 yards on 146 attempts. He averages 4.1 yards per carry.

Prediction

If the Cowboys can exploit TCU’s struggling run defense with Gordon, the Cowboys have a solid chance of picking up their first conference win. Despite TCU’s strong offensive performance against Baylor, the defense could not stop Baylor’s Bryson Washington as the team drove down the field for a game-winning FG.

It’s crucial for TCU’s defense to find its rhythm. The unit did well stopping the run against Texas Tech and Utah. With a talented TCU secondary, Bowman will have to rely more on Gordon’s rushing talent.

Prediction: TCU 31, OSU 24

Find more TCU coverage from The Dallas Morning News here.
 
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