DMN: SMU and TCU's annual clash will serve as key non-conference litmus test

Soft schedule? While TCU’s non conference schedule is not murderers’ row, it has been a solid non con schedule. Soft, would not be an accurate description. Does the writer follow college basketball?

 

Depending on what source you look at (kenpom, CBS Sports, TeamRankings.com, Sagarin), we are, at best 150, at worst 300+ non-conference SOS.

There is a reason this SMU line is so close, and it's not because of Moody Madness. It's because we haven't proven anything at all yet, and it's a rivalry game.

 

I'm quite shocked we haven't had a visit from our SMU basketball "expert", talking trash and entertaining us.

 

Just like last year, our schedule will look a lot better come March. A couple of these schools we have already played have a decent chance at winning their league.

 

actually frogs haven't exactly played a murders' row in their first 6 games this year regardless of the metric used to measure it.

best two teams are most likely fresno state and lipscomb. one was a tough win and the other was a solid loss.

players are finding their roles, you have some experienced players returning to form and some new players adjusting to the system. i do think this team does get better and can finish in the top half of the big 12, but i have read some people talk about competing for the conference title and i just don't see that from this team right now.

dixon put the schedule together for a reason and i am happy to watch things unfold, but it has not been a challenging schedule to this point, really doesn't significantly ramp up prior to conference play, and i wouldn't think about putting it in the top half of the out of conference schedules to date when you look at who teams like texas, kansas, tech, isu, osu, and ou have and will play prior to big 12 play.

 

This team will be playing their best basketball in February. This is going to be a litmus game for the team with it being the first road game. This team could finish anywhere from 3 to 7 in the conference but I know the future is bright.

 

My point being that Cal Bakersfield is loaded and a NCAA tournament team or NIT. Lipscomb is the same to go with Fresno ST. Eastern Michigan should challenge for the MAC crown. That is a decent for non conference so far. Add in SMU and USC and it gets even better.

Yes, a coach will schedule non conference games to where he think his team can win the majority of them. The key is making them challenging enough to push his team and not kill SOS. This season’s non conference schedule is solid, and TCU teams going back to CND prior to Dixon, would have struggled to be a .500 team with this non conference schedule. No Prairie View A&M’s on the schedule.

 

He took a small swipe at me in another thread. I told him that's fine but have your shinebox ready.

 

Preseason is to get the team ready for conference play, especially in one like the B12. We are still in the early stages of building a program, too. I don't know why fans here are so obsessed with the SOS of non-conference play. If they had their way in football we would go into conference 0-3 and beat up every year, but they would say "yeah, but look who we played!".

 

What SOS rankings list have you found that has us anywhere close to the top 100 non-conference SOS ?

 

I never said it was a strong non conference schedule, but it isn’t a soft one either. It is the best non conference schedule TCU has played in quite awhile. That is my point.

 

Frogs by 8.

(Hopefully sans Curt)

 

Ok. Your first post said "it has been a solid non conference schedule", implying that you're talking about so far.

And my point is that, so far, it has been very, very soft by any respectable sources list (Jerry Palm, KenPom, Sagarin, Teamrankings). Anywhere from 150 to 300+ SOS rank so far. Just go look for yourself at any of those sources that I listed.

 

one thing to remember is sos does matter in tournament selection

 

Whatever, if you think it is soft. What do you think of TCU’s non conference schedule over the last two decades? Those were soft scheduling. This is solid and respectable. 4 out of the 6 teams TCU has played are considered post season worthy for NCAA’s or NIT. Again that seems not like soft competition.

As for numbers, they don’t mean much at this point. As we get towards the final 1/3 of TCU’s season, I will concern my self a little with a stats cruncher’s work, but not at this time. For Sagarin’s numbers, a half season needs to be played before they start accurately reflect a SOS.

 

Yes, but those SOS formulas usually need at least a half a season before they start giving a more accurate reflection.

 

i agree that all of this nothing, but speculation at this point and i do agree with those who say pre-season schedules are set up for a variety of reasons.

i don't agree with comparing them to prior pre-season schedules as any type of validation simply because if the schedule isn't as soft as schedules in the past doesn't mean it is a quality schedule. as you pointed out that will play out over the season.

my concern about the schedule really isn't about sos in regards to the tournament. it is that tcu at times has struggled in some areas i think will be key come conference time against teams that we are overall athletically superior.

i understand there is a big difference between individual basketball skills, a team cohesively running a set offense or defense and athletic skills. consider a few years back when tcu struggled to stop south dakota state's offense a few years back. some of those issues carried over and were much more significant when the level of opposition talent got better that season.

the fear is the ability to handle perimeter pressure applied by these defenses only gets magnified come conference time. the lack of any of established big aside from samuel rears its head against kansas or texas' athletic bigs or the poor defensive effort against lipscomb.

i am ready for someone to reply back and say we should just cancel the season or that i think i know more than dixon. nor do i think tcu should have a schedule similar to the one texas is playing pre-conference.

the schedule was set for a reason, but i also think we won't have a very good idea what this team can truly be until the get into conference play because of the pre-season schedule.

 

Agree.

I think remember Dixon saying that the NCAA committee was no longer was going to use RPI but a new system that rewarded quality of opponents, won vs loss record are taken into account, but quality losses no longer help like they used to. Unless I am remember it wrong. I just something changed.

 

Unless we significantly underperform record-wise, noncon SOS won't be a huge deal if we don't lose terrible games. B12 SOS should be super high, offsetting it.