Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

[Limey Frog]

This is lunacy, but I think I'd rather let them collect those CFP payouts and split them 2 ways than add them to the B12. I suspect the closer they get to having to basically operate like independents from a scheduling standpoint the less comfortable they'll be holding fast to this position. I'm surprised there isn't a contract clause somewhere that defines a conference as consisting of some minimum number of member institutions. Weird situation.

There is a minimum number (six, I think), but there's also a two-year waiver if you temporarily drop below. I think the idea is something like WSU and OSU play each other for a "pac 2" championship for a year or so, and play a mostly MWC slate of non-conference games. Then, after the MWC media deal expires in 2025 that whole league's membership would join the Pac. In the meantime, OSU and WSU would make their budget by splitting the existing Pac's NCAA tourney and CFP payouts two ways. It's a genius plan, really. Still, after 2026 I don't know what media payout the new Pac 14 would be worth, or whether they could maintain a full CFP payout; I doubt the latter part especially. Personally I'd let them do it, let them keep the money for now, and just treat them in future CFP arrangements as the MWC is treated now (including going down from 6 spots for conference champions to 5). Changing the arrangements right now requires unanimous agreement, but when the contract is renewed after 2026 it's all going to be made from scratch. They'll sign on to what they're offered because they have no choice.

 

[Purp]

There is a minimum number (six, I think), but there's also a two-year waiver if you temporarily drop below. I think the idea is something like WSU and OSU play each other for a "pac 2" championship for a year or so, and play a mostly MWC slate of non-conference games. Then, after the MWC media deal expires in 2025 that whole league's membership would join the Pac. In the meantime, OSU and WSU would make their budget by splitting the existing Pac's NCAA tourney and CFP payouts two ways. It's a genius plan, really. Still, after 2026 I don't know what media payout the new Pac 14 would be worth, or whether they could maintain a full CFP payout; I doubt the latter part especially. Personally I'd let them do it, let them keep the money for now, and just treat them in future CFP arrangements as the MWC is treated now (including going down from 6 spots for conference champions to 5). Changing the arrangements right now requires unanimous agreement, but when the contract is renewed after 2026 it's all going to be made from scratch. They'll sign on to what they're offered because they have no choice.

This is where I am. With all the conference realignment in recent years I'm surprised language about a P5 conference folding wasn't included to preclude this very scenario.

 

[06DallasFrog]

This is lunacy, but I think I'd rather let them collect those CFP payouts and split them 2 ways than add them to the B12. I suspect the closer they get to having to basically operate like independents from a scheduling standpoint the less comfortable they'll be holding fast to this position. I'm surprised there isn't a contract clause somewhere that defines a conference as consisting of some minimum number of member institutions. Weird situation.

Ironical that you don't want conglomerates to hurt fast food, but you also don't want those being left behind in college football by conglomerates to have rights. Not an insult. I don't care either way

 

[Purp]

Ironical that you don't want conglomerates to hurt fast food, but you also don't want those being left behind in college football by conglomerates to have rights. Not an insult. I don't care either way

Weird flex.

When did I ever suggest OSU and WSU shouldn't have rights? When have I ever stated or implied that I'm not supportive of the smaller, deserving programs having a seat at the table? And at what point have I ever suggested I'm happy about the conference realignment of the last 30 years?

Also, lamenting conglomerates hurting fast food doesn't have to include pity for the little guy. Lamenting how much culture and service level decline when conglomerates take over can happen without feeling pity or remorse for the businesses affected.

I'm impressed by how many logical fallacies you can cram into a single sentence.

 

[06DallasFrog]

Weird flex.

When did I ever suggest OSU and WSU shouldn't have rights? When have I ever stated or implied that I'm not supportive of the smaller, deserving programs having a seat at the table? And at what point have I ever suggested I'm happy about the conference realignment of the last 30 years?

Also, lamenting conglomerates hurting fast food doesn't have to include pity for the little guy. Lamenting how much culture and service level decline when conglomerates take over can happen without feeling pity or remorse for the businesses affected.

I'm impressed by how many logical fallacies you can cram into a single sentence.

I was only pointing out that I, me personally, found irony in your back to back posts. I don't care about fast food or schools left out of conferences. No attempts at flexing. I'd probably cramp up.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

FYI, when I say payout, it’s not just bowls.
In 2023 the full academic performance pool paid approx. $80m per conference.
Spit that 2 ways + bowl money and it fixes their budget prob in short order.
The future payouts are planned to increase to $100m+ per conference with the 12 team CFP.
There is a crap load of money at stake, which is why I believe the B12 might be asked to save the day & expand. Funded by ESPN @ $22m thru this contract cycle.
Of course the B12 could probably bargain/leverage for more reward/$$$.
They could also just say no, but idk if Yormark wants to make any enemies right now.

 

[Boomhauer]

I was only pointing out that I, me personally, found irony in your back to back posts. I don't care about fast food or schools left out of conferences. No attempts at flexing. I'd probably cramp up.

Liked for Profile pic

 

[Purp]

FYI, when I say payout, it’s not just bowls.
In 2023 the full academic performance pool paid approx. $80m per conference.
Spit that 2 ways + bowl money and it fixes their budget prob in short order.
The future payouts are planned to increase to $100m+ per conference with the 12 team CFP.
There is a crap load of money at stake, which is why I believe the B12 might be asked to save the day & expand. Funded by ESPN @ $22m thru this contract cycle.
Of course the B12 could probably bargain/leverage for more reward/$$$.
They could also just say no, but idk if Yormark wants to make any enemies right now.

Sounds like ESPN is the one wielding the most power here. If I'm Yormark I "try" to get my conference presidents to do this deal, but when too many vote no I've neither made no enemies nor made a bad deal for my constitutents.

Good for Beave and Wazzu for finding a very spectacular silver lining. I bet Cal and Stanford might wish they had stayed now.

 

[McFroggin]

FYI, when I say payout, it’s not just bowls.
In 2023 the full academic performance pool paid approx. $80m per conference.
Spit that 2 ways + bowl money and it fixes their budget prob in short order.
The future payouts are planned to increase to $100m+ per conference with the 12 team CFP.
There is a crap load of money at stake, which is why I believe the B12 might be asked to save the day & expand. Funded by ESPN @ $22m thru this contract cycle.
Of course the B12 could probably bargain/leverage for more reward/$$$.
They could also just say no, but idk if Yormark wants to make any enemies right now.

If both schools were given $22 million to be in the Big12, the Big12 would say no. They don’t provide enough value long-term. The bribery to diminish the Big12 future value to accept these schools could be $10 million/school every year through the current contract plus the 2 new schools $22 million.

 

[Big Frog II]

I don't think OSU and WSU have bad TV value at all. My biggest problem with them is their distance. OSU is not that bad to get to, but WSU would be a nightmare.

 

[McFroggin]

I don't think OSU and WSU have bad TV value at all. My biggest problem with them is their distance. OSU is not that bad to get to, but WSU would be a nightmare.

While you might not, the media powers that be do. ESPN and Fox aren’t interested.

 

[Limey Frog]

FYI, when I say payout, it’s not just bowls.
In 2023 the full academic performance pool paid approx. $80m per conference.
Spit that 2 ways + bowl money and it fixes their budget prob in short order.
The future payouts are planned to increase to $100m+ per conference with the 12 team CFP.
There is a crap load of money at stake, which is why I believe the B12 might be asked to save the day & expand. Funded by ESPN @ $22m thru this contract cycle.
Of course the B12 could probably bargain/leverage for more reward/$$$.
They could also just say no, but idk if Yormark wants to make any enemies right now.

But it's only for three years before the new CFP contract would be negotiated. So they make $50M a year for three years, then things will correct. I don't think that's worth expanding for, personally. But if the economics work out I could live with Wazzup and Oregon State more than Cal and Stanford. It wouldn't be a disaster.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

If both schools were given $22 million to be in the Big12, the Big12 would say no. They don’t provide enough value long-term. The bribery to diminish the Big12 future value to accept these schools could be $10 million/school every year through the current contract plus the 2 new schools $22 million.

$22m is ESPN’s share of the B12 media contract, which is what they’d be on the hook for. FOX is likely out
I doubt the B12 would offer more than $10-$12m to the schools. I believe Cal/Stan. got approx $10m for the first 7 years
I agree they would probably be dilutive in the next media negotiations.

It’s only one possibility, anything can happen in this situation.
The last 6 mos of realignment has been completely unpredictable, and realignment is just getting started.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

But it's only for three years before the new CFP contract would be negotiated. So they make $50M a year for three years, then things will correct. I don't think that's worth expanding for, personally. But if the economics work out I could live with Wazzup and Oregon State more than Cal and Stanford. It wouldn't be a disaster.

From a different angle, it’s $300m over 3 years that would be paid to every P4 school at $4m each, plus $40-$50m to the Group aggregate, instead of just two schools.
And from ESPN’s vantage point, it’s a giant waste of their money, when they could just spend $175m to move them to the B12.

Nobody wants the PAC to survive, as they will cost everyone $millions.

 

[Limey Frog]

From a different angle, it’s $300m over 3 years that would be paid to every P4 school at $4m each, plus $40-$50m to the Group aggregate, instead of just two schools.
And from ESPN’s vantage point, it’s a giant waste of their money, when they could just spend $175m to move them to the B12.

Nobody wants the PAC to survive, as they will cost everyone $millions.

I thought the same basic mathematics would direct them to destroy the ACC instead of paying for three schools no one wants to watch, but they haven't yet. The Big 12 needs to think about the future: we don't want to be going to market in 2032 with too many mouths to feed that aren't worth paying for.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

I thought the same basic mathematics would direct them to destroy the ACC instead of paying for three schools no one wants to watch, but they haven't yet. The Big 12 needs to think about the future: we don't want to be going to market in 2032 with too many mouths to feed that aren't worth paying for.

Oh I agree. I’m not saying we should take the P2, I’m just saying the B12 will soon be asked and somewhat pressured to accept them.

It would be bad for a number of reasons. Not only the next media deal, but 18 is a bad number schedule wise, and I doubt anyone wants a 6 PAC (& possibly BYU) voting bloc in the B12.

 

[NORMLFROG]

Oh I agree. I’m not saying we should take the P2, I’m just saying the B12 will soon be asked and somewhat pressured to accept them.

It would be bad for a number of reasons. Not only the next media deal, but 18 is a bad number schedule wise, and I doubt anyone wants a 6 PAC (& possibly BYU) voting bloc in the B12.

The voting bloc thing is huge IMO. You’re just asking to destabilize the Big 12 just as we’re catching our breath.

NF

 

[Sangria Wine]

Educate me as to why the PAC2 can’t just use some of their money to assist/offset buyouts for the most desirable assets in the MWC? Expand to a minimum number of schools to maintain conference status, collect the funds that are obligated from basketball, etc and live to see another day. The brand would seem to have some value even if everybody else left it for dead.

 

[Sweat Equity]

I was only pointing out that I, me personally, found irony in your back to back posts. I don't care about fast food or schools left out of conferences. No attempts at flexing. I'd probably cramp up.

To be fair, I unintentionally derailed the thread by bringing up fast food. I thought by "bowls" we were talking abt Boston Market's Market Bowl, which you can order here. (I thought this might be helpful, despite ... I know, I know ... being a career vegetarian.)

Now we are back on this topic, you can get $3 off a bowl purchase by signing up for their "Rotisserie Rewards" program, here.

(The catch: You have to find an functional Boston Market.)

 

[Limey Frog]

Per Kyle Whittingham, Utah is pretty much in the Big Ten already. Lolz.



To be fair, he's only really saying in general terms that a big upheaval is coming and the present alignment isn't likely to last long. Hard to say he's wrong there, but by the same measure how can you be sure he's right?

[This, by the way, speaks to the "voting bloc" point NF made above. It's one thing to have Utah and Arizona State join the conference reluctantly with a massively inflated and unrealistic sense of their own institutional worth. It's quite another to invite a situation in which a bloc that makes up almost half the league is led by such morons.]