Baseball Polls and Postseason Seeding

[Sangria Wine]

We beat them head to head, we have sl. better attendance, we have been to Omaha recently, and we have a marquee player (Purke, assuming he comes back) who can draw big crowds. I just don't see A$M hosting before us right now.

BINGO

AggieFrog...the Aggie mentality is creeping up on you in your logic.

 

[AggieFrog]

BINGO

AggieFrog...the Aggie mentality is creeping up on you in your logic.

A&M hosts above TCU right now - that's not Aggie mentality, that's college baseball (go listen to Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, etc. if you don't believe me). Either A&M or Texas will be a national seed and if Rice sweeps or even just wins the series at Southern Miss they have a very good chance at a national seed as well.

TCU's best chance to host is if there are 4 hosts assigned to this region vs the usual two or three. If there's a 4th, then TCU and OU will likely be competing for it.

 

[cdsfrog]

A&M hosts above TCU right now - that's not Aggie mentality, that's college baseball (go listen to Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, etc. if you don't believe me). Either A&M or Texas will be a national seed and if Rice sweeps or even just wins the series at Southern Miss they have a very good chance at a national seed as well.

TCU's best chance to host is if there are 4 hosts assigned to this region vs the usual two or three. If there's a 4th, then TCU and OU will likely be competing for it.

no offense but you have no idea, you are predicting based on random assumptions. A&m could easily choke a lot of their games and all things being equal rpi wise or even A&M slightly ahead TCU goes in a heartbeat

Better attendance, more draw, omaha semi finals CWS last year. a few games left, well see what happens

 

[Frog79]

A&M hosts above TCU right now

Based on what? A$M's higher ranking in the polls, better attendance, stronger recent play, victories over TCU last month and last year, and recent success in Omaha? Oh wait...none of of those things are true are they??? So why should they get the bid before us? Right, there is no reason.

 

[HToady]

A&M hosts above TCU right now - that's not Aggie mentality, that's college baseball (go listen to Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt, etc. if you don't believe me). Either A&M or Texas will be a national seed and if Rice sweeps or even just wins the series at Southern Miss they have a very good chance at a national seed as well.

TCU's best chance to host is if there are 4 hosts assigned to this region vs the usual two or three. If there's a 4th, then TCU and OU will likely be competing for it.

TCU is ranked higher than A&M in every poll. TCU has higher attendance. TCU is located 30 minutes from a major airport.

I can see the fuzzy A&M math at work here.

The deciders already know that most aggie alum live in DFW and will come here. You'll be our #2.

Don't worry though, we'll give you 300 seats. And since we will never play each other (see year before last) you could get more.

 

[AggieFrog]

Watch the RPI and ignore the polls. TCU's schedule is pretty awful from here on out. The Frogs can't afford to lose given the opponents.

 

[AggieFrog]

TCU is ranked higher than A&M in every poll. TCU has higher attendance. TCU is located 30 minutes from a major airport.

I can see the fuzzy A&M math at work here.

The deciders already know that most aggie alum live in DFW and will come here. You'll be our #2.

Don't worry though, we'll give you 300 seats. And since we will never play each other (see year before last) you could get more.

I know you're just being funny (at least I hope so - if not you don't know much college baseball), but TCU has a good chance to host if there are 4 bids in this region. Teams in position to host: Texas, Texas A&M, Rice, OU, TCU, & Arkansas. TCU is currently looking up at all these teams in the RPI and the Frogs have no good RPI games left (any loss from here on out is a bad RPI loss, especially any of the last 4 games). Just playing the last 7 games harms the Frogs RPI.

 

[HToady]

I know you're just being funny (at least I hope so - if not you don't know much college baseball), but TCU has a good chance to host if there are 4 bids in this region. Teams in position to host: Texas, Texas A&M, Rice, OU, TCU, & Arkansas. TCU is currently looking up at all these teams in the RPI and the Frogs have no good RPI games left (any loss from here on out is a bad RPI loss, especially any of the last 4 games). Just playing the last 7 games harms the Frogs RPI.

You hang on to that RPI. I guess to all of you baseball "experts" out there. It's all about RPI and nothe else. I guess we'll see.

Oh and a little reminder. TCU is the premier colligate sports program in the state of Texas. In football and baseball. We'll give you girls basketball.

 

[AggieFrog]

You hang on to that RPI. I guess to all of you baseball "experts" out there. It's all about RPI and nothe else. I guess we'll see.

Oh and a little reminder. TCU is the premier colligate sports program in the state of Texas. In football and baseball. We'll give you girls basketball.

TCU is the top football program this year and was the top baseball program last year. As for the best athletic department overall, that's between A&M and Texas this year (and A&M had the best overall AD in the state in 2009-2010).

 

[HToady]

TCU is the top football program this year and was the top baseball program last year. As for the best athletic department overall, that's between A&M and Texas this year (and A&M had the best overall AD in the state in 2009-2010).

Hey ag,

Here are some more Baseball numbers for you:

TCU has a 73% win rate against the big 12 this year. A&Ms has a 71% win rate. That means tha if we were in the Big 12 we would be alone in First Place!

And we would have the advantage of those fantastic RPIs!

So, if we go 5 and 2 in our last 7 games our RPI would go down. If A&M goes 2 and 5, (against the vaunted big 12) their RPI goes up!

RPI = Sagrin Ratings!

I think your true allegiance is showing....

 

[AggieFrog]

Hey ag,

Here are some more Baseball numbers for you:

TCU has a 73% win rate against the big 12 this year. A&Ms has a 71% win rate. That means tha if we were in the Big 12 we would be alone in First Place!

And we would have the advantage of those fantastic RPIs!

So, if we go 5 and 2 in our last 7 games our RPI would go down. If A&M goes 2 and 5, (against the vaunted big 12) their RPI goes up!

RPI = Sagrin Ratings!

I think your true allegiance is showing....

Against common Big 12 opponents, TCU is 7-3 while A&M is 9-3.

A&M has played a much tougher schedule overall - TCU has had 19 games against teams with RPIs above 100 vs. 11 for A&M, similarly TCU has played 15 games against top 50 teams vs 23 for A&M.

My allegiances are A&M first, TCU second - I'd love for TCU to host, but the Frogs are on the bubble right now. That loss to Houston Baptist looms large. If the Frogs have lose a game from here on out it better be to Utah and not Oral Roberts or New Mexico - there is simply no room for error at this point.

 

[HToady]

Against common Big 12 opponents, TCU is 7-3 while A&M is 9-3.

What are you talking about.? Don't you play all of the Big 12 teams????? Try 10 and 3 (since you can't play yourselves).

Remember we swept Tech? First time they were swept at home since 1969 by a non conference opponent?

Nice try. More fuzzy aggie math.

Oh yea...we beat you too.

 

[AggieFrog]

What are you talking about.? Don't you play all of the Big 12 teams????? Try 10 and 3 (since you can't play yourselves).

Remember we swept Tech? First time they were swept at home since 1969 by a non conference opponent?

Nice try. More fuzzy aggie math.

Oh yea...we beat you too.

Too bad the committee doesn't care all that much about head to heads - and I used common Big 12 opponents because not doing so makes no sense.

Look, I've followed the Frogs for 9 seasons now - I want the Frogs to win just like y'all do, but too many here don't know how college baseball works (or else folks wouldn't be using polls as justification for hosting spots). Again, TCU may host, but it depends a lot on things outside the Frogs' control. Had the Frogs not lost to Houston Baptist and had gotten one against OU they'd be in a much better position.

 

[Frog79]

too many here don't know how college baseball works

Including those who think A$M is a lock to host with no solid reason why - except that they play in the mighty Big 12 (which TCU has owned over the last couple of years - except for OU). Other than a slight edge in RPI everything else is in our favor.

 

[AggieFrog]

Including those who think A$M is a lock to host with no solid reason why - except that they play in the mighty Big 12 (which TCU has owned over the last couple of years - except for OU). Other than a slight edge in RPI everything else is in our favor.

Barring going 2-5, yes A&M is a lock. If the Ags can sweep Nebraska at home this weekend, we'll take a 2 game lead on Texas and will be playing for a national seed next week. Kendall Rogers of PerfectGame (and formerly Yahoo Sports) mentioned just that in the past hour:

#Texas and #TAMU are 13 and 16, respectively. Still think if #Aggies sweep #Nebraska, that series next week is for #Big12 and a natty seed.

If you think the top 2 Big 12 teams aren't hosting you must be on something.

Here are a few more numbers:

Record vs. top 50 (from Warren Nolan's):

Texas.......14-6
A&M.........15-8
Rice.........9-8
TCU..........10-5
OU...........11-10

Record vs. top 25 (plus TCU #26):

Texas.......5-4
A&M.........6-4
Rice.........3-2
TCU..........4-5
OU...........6-8

 

[Houston Frog]

Isn't Kendall Roger's an A&M grad?

 

[cdsfrog]

Isn't Kendall Roger's an A&M grad?

LMAO :biggrin:

good call sir

http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/baseball/expertsarchive?author=Kendall+Rogers

" He is a graduate of Texas A&M University"

 

[AggieFrog]

LMAO :biggrin:

good call sir

http://rivals.yahoo....=Kendall+Rogers

" He is a graduate of Texas A&M University"

He is but he's no A&M homer.

Perhaps you'd prefer Aaron Fitt of Baseball America:

From 5/2 chat

Aaron Fitt: I still think TCU is behind the 8-ball when it comes to hosting, especially after losing another game against Oklahoma in midweek. But it has a chance to make a statement against Oklahoma State this weekend. If the Horned Frogs can sweep that series, they might vault past OSU and Oklahoma and Rice in the hosting discussion in that part of the country. Just winning two out of three will at least keep the Frogs in the discussion. Right now, those four teams are competing with each other for host sites, and it's hard to separate them from each other. The next three weeks will be crucial.

From 5/9 chat

Aaron Fitt: The Frogs showed a lot of gumption this weekend, for sure. I watched the Sunday game on TV, and I was impressed with TCU's offense, which did a really nice job driving the gaps and staying patient. That was a must-win series for TCU to have any shot at hosting, and now it's right in the mix, although competition remains thick for those last few spots (Oklahoma and Arkansas might still have an edge over TCU because of the RPI, and OU's head-to-head edge over TCU). Maxwell and Purke returning is obviously critical for TCU to make another deep run — not because Miller and Mitchell (who is a stud) aren't capable starters, but because the staff lacks depth without Purke and Maxwell. If you can then move Miller and Mitchell into bullpen or NO. 4 starter roles in the postseason, you're in much better shape, I think.

 

[masterfrog]

Two things everybody seems to be leaving out of the equation:

1) We can host a regional without being the #1 seed in the regional.
2) We can be the #1 seed in a regional without hosting the regional.

Both of these things happen with some regularity in the NCAA baseball tournament.

 

[AggieFrog]

Latest Baseball America stock report from today.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/college/2011/05/stock-report-week-12-2/

NATIONAL SEEDS

SECURE TEAMS: Virginia, Florida, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Arizona State, Oregon State

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Florida State, Texas

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): North Carolina, Georgia Tech, Southern Mississippi, Texas A&M

No change from last week. The Seminoles strengthened their position somewhat with a series win against Central Florida and a midweek win at Stetson. North Carolina and Georgia Tech are nipping at Florida State's heels for the second national seed spot in the ACC. The Yellow Jackets actually have a better conference mark (18-6) than either team, while UNC (16-8) has the same ACC record as FSU and won the head-to-head series against the Seminoles. All three teams are in the top nine in the RPI, and UNC has the best record against the top 100 (30-10, while the other two teams are both 23-12), so this situation is still very fluid. But the Tar Heels have the most difficult remaining schedule of the three, with a series at Georgia Tech and a home set against Virginia. Of course, that schedule also affords UNC an opportunity to solidify itself as a national seed—it controls its own destiny in this discussion, but it's not an easy road. Florida State's 3-1 record against Florida this season remains its trump card, for now at least. It's also possible that three of those teams could land national seeds, especially if one of the three SEC heavyweights falters or if Texas stumbles.

The Longhorns held their ground with a road series win at Nebraska, leaving them a half-game ahead of Texas A&M in the Big 12 (though they technically trail by percentage points). The season-ending series between the two clubs will go a long way toward determining if either is a national seed; that series is a must-win for the Aggies, who have slipped to No. 18 in the RPI and the outside of the national seed discussion in recent weeks.

Southern Miss is the darkhorse. The Golden Eagles shot up seven spots to No. 10 in the RPI after sweeping UAB last weekend, and they still control Conference USA, with a two-game lead over Rice. The Golden Eagles need to win their last two series—at Houston and against Rice—to overtake one of the teams ahead of them for a national seed. Right now the biggest flaw in USM's resume is just an 0-2 record against the top 25 in the RPI, but a series win against the Owls could help remedy that shortcoming.

REGIONAL HOSTS

SECURE TEAMS: The 12 teams listed in the national seeds discussion above

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Stetson, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Cal State Fullerton

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas Christian, Clemson, Rice, Oklahoma State, Miami, Stanford, Fresno State

One change from last week: Arkansas replaces Fresno State as a host. After taking two of three from Florida, Arkansas padded its record against the top 25 in the RPI to 10-8, which compares very favorably to other host candidates in its region like Oklahoma (4-8), TCU (4-5) and Rice (3-2). TCU's series win at Oklahoma State, followed by a midweek win against Baylor, improved the Frogs to 10-4 against the Big 12 this season, giving their hosting chances a major boost. But TCU needs Oklahoma to slip up, because the Sooners still own a 2-0 record against TCU and a stronger RPI (No. 15 vs. No. 26).

Rice, meanwhile, climbed nine spots to No. 14 in the RPI after sweeping a series at Houston. If the Owls win their final two series, including a road set at Southern Miss in two weeks, they might be hard to deny. But competition is thick for host spots in that part of the country.