1. The KillerFrogs

Annual Statistical Analysis (Football)

Discussion in 'Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum' started by HG73, Dec 21, 2019.

  1. Time again for my expert number crunching to determine who is to blame for me having no bowl game to watch.
    These numbers compare us with baylor. They tied for the conference championship yet our numbers are eerily similar. Just a few stats that cut out all the noise.

    All figures are per game and conference play only. No Stephen F, San Antonio and Rice to pad their stats.

    baylor TCU
    57 net yards 59
    11 victory margin -0-
    1.4 turnover margin .1
    84% red zone defense 90%
    53% red zone def. TDs. 61%

    All the other stats were so similar they weren't worth mentioning. We had great kicking, missed one FG all year.

    We moved the ball and stopped people about the same. They got 1.3 more net turnovers per game. Average victory margin seemed to be the result of their measurably better red zone defense. That surprised me.

    After all that, bu was 4-2 in 3 point games (at the end of regulation). Both losses to OU. We were 1-3 in 4 point games (end of regulation). 1-4 including smu.

    Probably the biggest difference was they had a senior QB and we had a freshman. But oh so close.

    Hope this helps. If you don't agree with me, I don't care.
     
  2. Man +1.3 turnovers per game looks huge to me
     
    Frog Wild likes this.
  3. careful, he told you that if you don't agree with him that hg73 doesn't care

    oh, i do agree that a +1.3 turnover margin is huge, especially when you consider how much turnovers helped tcu beat texas and also kid the frogs in some losses
     
  4. Hard to imagine the turnover margin isn't pretty significant. As a side note, they didn't play with a SR QB. Brewer is a JR.
     
  5. Yep, that's a killer. Hard to overcome. baylor had to kick a 52 yard FG to take us to overtime, among other lucky breaks at the end of that game. We intercepted them on the last drive but their tackle was offside which nullified the play. And we lost to OU by 4 up there. We were so close to having a good team this year.
     
  6. There was a big difference in offensive efficiency between us and Baylor this year that isn’t reflected here. They were nearly a yard per play and over .1 points per play better than us. But I agree the two teams are much closer than their records reflect.
     
  7. It's a game changer. If you win the turnover battle you are probably going to win the game and I'm guessing that is true at every level.
     
  8. Stats are one thing but my eyes saw something different. We were a very very average team this year. I’m not sure we were that close to being anything different.
     
  9. Yes they're better offensively but that's offset by our D. Net yards per game virtually identical.
     
  10. Negative. Baylor gave up .6 fewer yards per play than we did.
     
  11. Couldn't get out of our own way. Receivers dropped everything. Defenses had the standard treatment for a freshman QB, stack the box and run blitz every down. Long season.
     
  12. Baylor’s offense was ranked #27 in yards per play. We were #93. Their defense was ranked #17 in yards to play allowed. We were #48.

    I think you’re being very selective in picking which stats to analyze. Yards per play gained and given up is probably the most revealing stat in terms of how consistently good or a bad a team was.
     
  13. Accusing me of being selective would imply that I put any effort at all into this. I did not.
    Thanks to you I have already spent more time verifying the numbers than I did compiling them.
    These numbers are team numbers per game. Conference games only. baylor and OU had 10 conference games, everyone else had 9.
    Now honestly, I only compared us to baylor. Maybe all the teams were that close statistically, I don't know. And again, don't really care.
    Just trying to make some sense of a disappointing season.
     
  14. I think the difference between 6-6 type teams and 10-2 type teams is a lot smaller than some people think. In fact, I think it is smaller than 10-2 to 12-0 as each step gets progressively harder. I do agree with the OP that an experienced QB can be what gets you from 6-6 to 10-2. Just look at 2016 TCU vs. 2017 TCU.
     
    HG73 likes this.

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