The Spun: College Football Analysts Predict Michigan vs. TCU Score

[Ron Swanson]

I watched that game. You should go and do some historical research on Urban Meyer. OSU fans have a love hate relationship with him. One of Meyer's flaws was being too married to his system which is a QB running the ball too many times. That is why I pointed that OSU was the "best team" with Cardale Jones as QB. OSU also lost to Michigan State in a similar manner. In fact OSU lost again to Clemson the following year. As good as JT Barrett was as a power spread runner, he was capped by his limited throwing ability. OSU was a different team with a passing threat. This was the big inflection point that Ryan Day fixed by going after QB's who at least in college were pass first. This peaked with Justin Fields who was also a great runner. Though Fields seems to have issues with the different concept of open in the NFL which is one step instead of three.

I am no fan of OSU football as they are my biggest rival. But if TCU and OSU had met with Cardale Jones, it would have been paste. What is actually more shocking is that OSU failed to win the NC in 2015 with all those people back. Take a look at the careers of the major players for that two year period. Bosa, Elliot, Thomas, Decker, Apple, and Lawson have had long NFL careers.

Not one team in the country was “pasting” that TCU team. It’s possible that OSU team beats us in a close one (I think we would’ve beat anyone we played) but there’s no way we are getting pasted.

I’m guessing you didn’t watch a lot of TCU football that year. We were killing everyone we played towards the end of the season.

 

[texasrobster1997]

I believe this is an incorrect characterization of what actually happened. The game did not 'get out of hand' in the 4th quarter as you imply. It is true that Michigan did not dominate the "entirety" of the game. The first half was a highly competitive. However, the entirety of the second half was dominated by Michigan not just the 4th quarter.

In the 3rd quarter Michigan out gained Ohio State 160 yards to 17 yards, held them to a single first down and outscored Ohio State 7 to 0. The ball was on the Ohio State 16 as the 3rd quarter ended and the ensuing TD quickly scored as the 4th quarter began. In the 4th quarter Michigan outscored Ohio 21-3 and out gained Ohio State 201-130. Ohio State's 6 second half possessions yielded the following results: Punt, Punt, Punt, FG, Int, Int.

Ohio State's competitiveness in the game effectively ended at half time.

Go Blue!

Meh…
Total yard difference for the game was like 30 in Michigans favor. They were behind at halftime and had the advantage of two turn overs. It was a great game but this was not as much of a beat down like the score suggests. I also think rivalry games are not good predictors of future outcomes. As some have suggested, it’s a moot point anyway since we will play soon enough.

 

[hfhmilkman]

Not one team in the country was “pasting” that TCU team. It’s possible that OSU team beats us in a close one (I think we would’ve beat anyone we played) but there’s no way we are getting pasted.

I’m guessing you didn’t watch a lot of TCU football that year. We were butt everyone we played towards the end of the season.

I will strongly disagree. 2014 TCU was a very good football. Probably very similar to the 2015 Michigan State football team that upset Ohio State in the November gales of the upper Midwest. Yet that 2015 MSU team got face planted by Alabama. Why? Because at the rarified peak of college football, its about how much NFL talent you have on a team. Its one thing to bushwhack during a week to week schedule. Its a completely different situation when your playing with several weeks of preparation in a environment with ideal weather like no weather. In that case, the superior talent if overwhelming wins. This is why SEC teams try to stockpile as many 5 stars as possible. If you look at every National Champion they were either completed loaded football team(2021 Georgia) or they were loaded minus except they had an NFL caliber QB running the team. If you don't believe me, read off the starting QB's of the National Champions. Itemize list of NFL players on those teams and their draft position and careers. Then compare to everyone else.

I agree, during the regular season a well organized team like 2014 TCU can beat anyone. But not in the NC format where your every pimple and flaw is analyzed for 45 days into a specialized game plan. Time rewards the vastly superior team. By the way I don't think that is Michigan. Georgia is scouting both our teams and the winner is probably also going to be paste by Georgia. So yeah, I think Georgia will steamroll Ohio State.

 

[bbell]

I will strongly disagree. 2014 TCU was a very good football. Probably very similar to the 2015 Michigan State football team that upset Ohio State in the November gales of the upper Midwest. Yet that 2015 MSU team got face planted by Alabama. Why? Because at the rarified peak of college football, its about how much NFL talent you have on a team. Its one thing to bushwhack during a week to week schedule. Its a completely different situation when your playing with several weeks of preparation in a environment with ideal weather like no weather. In that case, the superior talent if overwhelming wins. This is why SEC teams try to stockpile as many 5 stars as possible. If you look at very National Champion they were either completed loaded football team(2021 Georgia) or they were loaded minus except they had an NFL caliber QB running the team. If you don't believe me, read off the starting QB's of the National Champions. Itemize list of NFL players on those teams and their draft position and careers. Then compare to everyone else.

I agree, during the regular season a well organized team like 2014 TCU can beat anyone. But not in the NC format where your every pimple and flaw is analyzed for 45 days into a specialized game plan. Time rewards the vastly superior team. By the way I don't think that is Michigan. Georgia is scouting both our teams and the winner is probably also going to be paste by Georgia. So yeah, I think Georgia will steamroll Ohio State.

Funny you use Alabama in your case. Ole Miss defeated Alabama in 2014 before we blew out Ole Miss in the Peach Bowl that year 42-3. I don’t think anyone was going to beat TCU in the postseason that year. Finally we have the opportunity on the field this year.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

Funny about Ohio State being so superior. How’d they lose to a mediocre VaTech?

 

[froglash88]

Elitist Michigan fans are a beating!

 

[puckster59]

The extent of irrelevance of this argument is such that I have to argue against it.

 

[hfhmilkman]

Funny about Ohio State being so superior. How’d they lose to a mediocre VaTech?

I explained it higher in the thread. I will state again. Urban Meyer's flaw like many coaches is he cannot think outside the box and is married to his system. Meyer wants to run power spread which means a big QB running a lot. Example Tim Tebow or JT Barrett. When Barrett got hurt, Meyer was forced to change his style. OSU was a far more dangerous team with Cardale Jones. Jones as QB did two things. It forced Meyer to have to give the ball to Elliot who I would say is far more dangerous runner. The second is Jones took advantage of OSU's NFL capable receivers which Barrett could not. I agree, that when Meyer played JT Barrett, just like against Michigan State in 2015, Ohio State was not as dangerous. OSU was beatable in the right situation. Teams lose. 2014 TCU, lost to Baylor, who lost to Michigan State, who lost to Ohio State. Go figure.

And I do not get this Michigan elite trolling. I am not even talking Michigan. I'm just talking stats since I remember watching all of those games. And of course I loved it when OSU got the Beamer treatment. I hate saying anything good about Ohio State. But I call what it is. Yes, it stunk as a UM fan to see Meyer succeed out of dumb luck, because he had to play the best QB.

But now that the VT game is brought up again, I am waxing in my memories of that fabulous interception for TD that sealed the game.

 

[Planks]

I will strongly disagree. 2014 TCU was a very good football. Probably very similar to the 2015 Michigan State football team that upset Ohio State in the November gales of the upper Midwest.

I’m sorry, but no. The 2015 Michigan State team was not in the same stratosphere as 2014 TCU. And that’s not an exaggeration. The 2015 Michigan State team is so drastically statistically inferior, it’s basically an insult to say they were similar.

2015 Michigan State
#60 scoring offense: 29.8 ppg
#25 scoring defense: 21.7 ppg
Avg Margin: 8.1 points

2014 TCU
#2 scoring offense: 46.5 ppg
#8 scoring defense: 19.0 ppg
Avg Margin: 27.5 points

These teams are not even remotely close. I’ll forgive you, because like most college football fans you have no idea how good 2014 TCU was. It’s a huge point of frustration for TCU fans. Statistically that was undeniably a national championship caliber team that was never given a chance to prove itself. Most of us will go to our graves believing TCU would have won it all that year given the chance.

And yes, 2022 TCU is also drastically statistically inferior in comparison.

 

[Creeperfrog]

I think saying the modern era with Patterson is fair. Kind of like the astros starting in 2015

 

[Ron Swanson]

I will strongly disagree. 2014 TCU was a very good football. Probably very similar to the 2015 Michigan State football team that upset Ohio State in the November gales of the upper Midwest. Yet that 2015 MSU team got face planted by Alabama. Why? Because at the rarified peak of college football, its about how much NFL talent you have on a team. Its one thing to bushwhack during a week to week schedule. Its a completely different situation when your playing with several weeks of preparation in a environment with ideal weather like no weather. In that case, the superior talent if overwhelming wins. This is why SEC teams try to stockpile as many 5 stars as possible. If you look at every National Champion they were either completed loaded football team(2021 Georgia) or they were loaded minus except they had an NFL caliber QB running the team. If you don't believe me, read off the starting QB's of the National Champions. Itemize list of NFL players on those teams and their draft position and careers. Then compare to everyone else.

I agree, during the regular season a well organized team like 2014 TCU can beat anyone. But not in the NC format where your every pimple and flaw is analyzed for 45 days into a specialized game plan. Time rewards the vastly superior team. By the way I don't think that is Michigan. Georgia is scouting both our teams and the winner is probably also going to be paste by Georgia. So yeah, I think Georgia will steamroll Ohio State.

We had that stud QB you’re referring to.

Trevone Boykin was one of the top 5 college QBs I’ve ever seen play. He would’ve been a good pro too if he hadn’t blown it with off-the-field stuff.

 

[Hoosierfrog]

I explained it higher in the thread. I will state again. Urban Meyer's flaw like many coaches is he cannot think outside the box and is married to his system. Meyer wants to run power spread which means a big QB running a lot. Example Tim Tebow or JT Barrett. When Barrett got hurt, Meyer was forced to change his style. OSU was a far more dangerous team with Cardale Jones. Jones as QB did two things. It forced Meyer to have to give the ball to Elliot who I would say is far more dangerous runner. The second is Jones took advantage of OSU's NFL capable receivers which Barrett could not. I agree, that when Meyer played JT Barrett, just like against Michigan State in 2015, Ohio State was not as dangerous. OSU was beatable in the right situation. Teams lose. 2014 TCU, lost to Baylor, who lost to Michigan State, who lost to Ohio State. Go figure.

And I do not get this Michigan elite trolling. I am not even talking Michigan. I'm just talking stats since I remember watching all of those games. And of course I loved it when OSU got the Beamer treatment. I hate saying anything good about Ohio State. But I call what it is. Yes, it stunk as a UM fan to see Meyer succeed out of dumb luck, because he had to play the best QB.

But now that the VT game is brought up again, I am waxing in my memories of that fabulous interception for TD that sealed the game.

 

[hfhmilkman]

I’m sorry, but no. The 2015 Michigan State team was not in the same stratosphere as 2014 TCU. And that’s not an exaggeration. The 2015 Michigan State team is so drastically statistically inferior, it’s basically an insult to say they were similar.

2015 Michigan State
#60 scoring offense: 29.8 ppg
#25 scoring defense: 21.7 ppg
Avg Margin: 8.1 points

2014 TCU
#2 scoring offense: 46.5 ppg
#8 scoring defense: 19.0 ppg
Avg Margin: 27.5 points

These teams are not even remotely close. I’ll forgive you, because like most college football fans you have no idea how good 2014 TCU was. It’s a huge point of frustration for TCU fans. Statistically that was undeniably a national championship caliber team that was never given a chance to prove itself. Most of us will go to our graves believing TCU would have won it all that year given the chance.

And yes, 2022 TCU is also drastically statistically inferior in comparison.

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

 

[bbell]

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

Yeah, let’s just get the players combine numbers and physical measurements. Then we don’t even have to play the game on the field anymore. So dumb.

It’s a team sport and many times the team with the lesser perceived talent or physically gifted players has prevailed. Much life goes into deciding these games than draft ability.

 

[Wexahu]

Yeah, let’s just get the players combine numbers and physical measurements. Then we don’t even have to play the game on the field anymore. So dumb.

It’s a team sport and many times the team with the lesser perceived talent or physically gifted players has prevailed. Much life goes into deciding these games than draft ability.

I think his point is those teams haven’t prevailed (or even been all that competitive) in the playoffs, when both teams have a month to prepare.

 

[mstrB]

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

You're an absolute moron. NFL and CFB are completely different and using this as your basis for judging teams is infantile. The greatest NFL quarterback in history did scheiss all in college and some of the greatest college players to ever play the game did nothing in the NFL. Idiotic way to compare teams.

 

[Make CFB Great Again]

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

Not really tempted to get drawn into the overall argument, but I’d imagine the reason Boykin wasn’t drafted was because at the time of the draft he had pending charges of felony assault of a police officer. If memory serves, he successfully pled that down to a lesser charge in the summer and the Seahawks picked him up as a free agent at that time.

He continued to make unwise life choices, which were exacerbated by the fact that he was on probation for the assault, and which is why his career didn’t pan out. Had little to do with his physical ability.

 

[Planks]

Again, if you believe TCU was a NC team in 2014, look at what the TCU players on that team did in the NFL verses the other NC teams. Name a National Champion team that did not have scores of NFL talent. I don't know how good or strong the Big12 was in 2014. There is a claim that Boykin may have been a better QB. If he was so good how come he was an NFL undrafted free agent? What about the receivers, the RB's, the lines? Now compare to a NC team. Look at Boykin's NFL draft profile? Inferior size, inferior arm strength, adapted to a gimmick offense, and legal issues last. And why not build an NFL franchise around an air raid route tree? Because it does not work against superior athletes.

This is the meta game of why spread and air raid became popular. Both offenses do not require an elite recruiting program to build a successful season. You only need a QB who can run the offense and a few skill players who get it. Look at the NFL drafts for 2015, and 2016. Doctson was the 22nd pick as a receiver in 2016. Dawson as a ILB was the 99th pick 2015, and you had a tackle who was the 183rd in 2015. And you are saying that TCU could match a team stacked with NFL prospects? There is a reason why OSU, Clemson and Alabama have represented half of the positions since the NC format has gone to 4. In fact you could safely pick 2 to 3 representatives before the season began. This may change with NIL as other schools are attempting to buy their way in. If 2014 TCU had a played a NC from 2014 to 2022, it would have been the same. The other program would have two months to tweak their defense and leverage their massive advantage in athletic ability. Poor Boykin with his 4.7 40 speed would be matched up by an entire linebacker corp of 4.5 40 monsters all bigger and more agile than him. Joey Bosa, the lesser of the brothers has a better shuttle time as DE than Boykin. That is who is setting the edge on a designed QB run. This is not an OSU thing. It is the case with every National Champion. At the very top of college football, games are won by recruiting.

The point I’m trying to make by posting the statistics is the 2014 TCU was playing at a completely level than Michigan State or Washington or whatever random team found themselves completely overmatched in the playoffs. Those teams failures aren’t applicable here because they were simply not as good as 2014 TCU. 2014 TCU would have been the exception to the rule about any sort of draft rankings or whatever.

It’s all hypothetical so we’ll never know. Nothing is every going to change your opinion or our opinion.

2014 TCU was special. I like 2022 TCU, but I have serious doubts about their ability to actually compete in this playoff field. I have no doubts about that 2014 TCU team.

And in regards to Boykin, he was an UDFA because of off the field issues. Yet as a rookie he not only made the Seahawks roster, but locked up the back up QB spot behind Russell Wilson. So it wasn’t your typical UDFA situation.

 

[Austintxfrog94]

 

[froglash88]

Inside source I have said the Fiesta Bowl ticket purchases so far are approximately 70% TCU and 30% Michigan. He say Michigan fans feel this is going to be an easy game and are planning for the Championship game instead.