CountryFrog
Active Member
Yea, both times
Fiutak predicts a CFP semi-final upset
- Thread starter JogginFrog
- Start date
CountryFrog
Active Member
By any strength of schedule metric we played a much stronger schedule.
Now what does that mean for this game? Not much. If it's a close game at the end then maybe slight advantage TCU just because we've been in that situation a lot more than they have. Maybe.
Virginia Frog
Active Member
CountryFrog
Active Member
I assumed that would be the case. He was injured before the season but rumors were that he's been healthy for a month or so now and just not electing to play.
Then when asked about his status Ryan Day said they should know in a couple of days. So obviously if the injury was an issue then that timeline wouldn't make sense. The only possibility was that the kid was deciding whether or not he wanted to play and the team probably put a deadline on it.
Honestly if he doesn't care enough to get out there against Michigan then I'm not sure I even want him in the playoff if I'm his teammates.
DeuceBoogieNights
Active Member
Absolutely nobody said they aren't good. I even put it in my comment. We all think they are good, but they aren't Georgia and they are beatable.
Me either. Problem is these things tend to snowball. Wasn’t that long ago when nobody skipped bowl games, now it seems like every draftable player who isn’t in the CFP does so.
I really think it’s going to be an issue asking guys to play 3 or potentially 4 (although admittedly not often 4) extra games. If I were an agent representing a 1st round pick that was on, say, the #10 seed, I’d advise him to sit out, somewhat depending on what position he played. Too much at risk. I guess there are insurance policies but still…
It’s only gonna get worse.
CountryFrog
Active Member
I do wish they would scrap the conference championship games starting in 24. They are totally superfluous with a 12 team playoff and only add to the length of the season. Play your 1st round on campus games that weekend instead.
I know this will likely never happen because of $ but it's what they should do.
Not only that but it jacks up all the resume comparisons. Teams get rewarded for not playing at times. So dumb. Everyone should play the same number of games.
hfhmilkman
Active Member
Hi. I saw this thread and thought it would be good to jump on this forum. As a UM fan I will describe what I believe is the Harbaugh mindset and how I would build a plan to beat UM. To begin with Harbaugh is obsessive when it comes to information He protects his RPS calls as if they were Hope diamonds. He will build turtle game plans to a fault. For example UM practiced their OSU pass coverage against Illinois. I despise cupcake games. I felt I only watched the real UM in three games. I love college football. But, I find myself getting more enjoyment from the NFL because any given Sunday means a loss even for the best. I am hoping the expansion of the 12 team playoff and perhaps weighting towards playing more tough games for qualification will induce more good matchups. It is no fun watching UM play vanilla and pull out just enough to win comfortably. Back to tactics.
Harbaugh is a dinosaur and completely retro on offense. The mindset is to attempt to take advantage of the evolution to faster defenses to combat air raids or QB spreads. The logic is akin to having to deal with an academy offense. Not only is a "normal" defense not equipped to address power, but you don't practice against it very much. The theory is a 4-2-5 or a 3-3-5 with the specialty hybrids not only get out beefed, but they do not get the opportunity to practice stopping it because all of the other weeks are spent stopping the air raids. The intent is low risk, and grinding offenses that by generating many offensive snaps, eventually wear the opposing defense out for either house calls or they are just body punched out. Possession is precious as a TO in a 9-10 possession game is catastrophic. UM will run even if it is clear a defense is throwing in more hats then blockers. All run schemes are fair game. But UM loves power. The QB McCarthy is a fabulously talented athlete who has great wheels and a greater arm. He is a former hockey player who is not afraid of contact. He is still inexperienced and still misses high because of too much mustard. Part of this is the side effect of the former OC coordinator, Josh Gattis attempt to implement "Speed in space". Most of the receivers are faster slot like guys with a smaller catch radius. One of the side effects of Blake Corum being injured it will be more difficult for Donavan Edwards to use his superpower which is his superior pass catching skills. Edwards in my opinion is a more dangerous receiver then running back. This was under wraps because of a hand injury. But it will be difficult to showcase if he has to also carry the football 25 times. The receivers are fine. They just don't go and get 50/50 balls like Q Johnson does. The freshmen TE Loveland may be this kind of consistent guy next year.
The defense is more conventional. Unlike last years team, it does not have any superstars. The best I can describe is multiple as it depends on the personal. The Dline will go three deep and there are rotations in the secondary. UM mindset is to play a light box and dare a team to run. The interior will accept doubles and play the odds that they can win those matchups. The goal is to thwart the pass and live with the run. There is no singular dominant pass rusher. The irony is that this years team is on a pace for more sacks then last year when UM had two extraordinary rush ends. The official description is UM is attempting to implement the Ravens "Amoeba" defense. The concept is to confuse a QB in not knowing who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. It depends on more personal being so generic, it is difficult to not only figure out who is rushing/covering but who is covering whom. The hope is a QB gets so confused he does not know what is going on. This was a smoke screen as the amoeba defense was used sparingly against OSU. As far as I can tell it was great coverage. A real amoeba other then an off pace formation may be too much for a college team to implement in the time allotted. Caveat, I think the results against OSU would have been different if JSN were healthy. Fleming and Egbuka are great athletes. But they are not at the Olave, Wilson level. And JSN is as good as Harrison Jr. If JSN comes back, I think OSU has a real shot not just to beat Georgia, but to win it all.
How to beat UM. First, you must have faith that your offense will score lots of points. That is what happens in these games. The offense has the advantage. So don't worry if your defense is going to give up points. You just have to stop the other team a few times. Be creative in how you throw extra hats into run defense. Do it too much, UM counters will got you for house calls. OSU was too predictable in their zeal to cover every run gap. If you do get got, limit to just a chunk play instead of a house call. If UM passes, make McCarthy throw, not run. That means lane discipline on the pass rush. Take advantage of the smaller catch radius of the receivers. McCarthy might miss some receivers even if they have step. Give them three and he will hit. McCarthy is not confident enough yet to make plays on NFL open. That is the temptation you need to present to McCarthy. Next year is his year, not this year. Spend the extra time making sure power, which is extinct in the Big12 is practiced and is no longer a novelty when the game begins. Don't worry if you give up some points. You will get yours. Being pedantic because that is important. Just don't get stuck in too many 15 play drives. On offense have your best players running their best plays. UM is going to tempt a team into attempting a play because on paper it looks like a good matchup, but its not your A+ call. Ignore the temptation and believe your stars will make the play. Don't put the game in the third string TE's hands. Don't fall for the trap just because there are six men in the box. UM wants you to run even on 3rd and 2, unless that is what you really want to do. They are banking their line will win the double and you will not convert.
And lastly have fun. Focused is fine. But a fun team is a winning team.
Harbaugh is a dinosaur and completely retro on offense. The mindset is to attempt to take advantage of the evolution to faster defenses to combat air raids or QB spreads. The logic is akin to having to deal with an academy offense. Not only is a "normal" defense not equipped to address power, but you don't practice against it very much. The theory is a 4-2-5 or a 3-3-5 with the specialty hybrids not only get out beefed, but they do not get the opportunity to practice stopping it because all of the other weeks are spent stopping the air raids. The intent is low risk, and grinding offenses that by generating many offensive snaps, eventually wear the opposing defense out for either house calls or they are just body punched out. Possession is precious as a TO in a 9-10 possession game is catastrophic. UM will run even if it is clear a defense is throwing in more hats then blockers. All run schemes are fair game. But UM loves power. The QB McCarthy is a fabulously talented athlete who has great wheels and a greater arm. He is a former hockey player who is not afraid of contact. He is still inexperienced and still misses high because of too much mustard. Part of this is the side effect of the former OC coordinator, Josh Gattis attempt to implement "Speed in space". Most of the receivers are faster slot like guys with a smaller catch radius. One of the side effects of Blake Corum being injured it will be more difficult for Donavan Edwards to use his superpower which is his superior pass catching skills. Edwards in my opinion is a more dangerous receiver then running back. This was under wraps because of a hand injury. But it will be difficult to showcase if he has to also carry the football 25 times. The receivers are fine. They just don't go and get 50/50 balls like Q Johnson does. The freshmen TE Loveland may be this kind of consistent guy next year.
The defense is more conventional. Unlike last years team, it does not have any superstars. The best I can describe is multiple as it depends on the personal. The Dline will go three deep and there are rotations in the secondary. UM mindset is to play a light box and dare a team to run. The interior will accept doubles and play the odds that they can win those matchups. The goal is to thwart the pass and live with the run. There is no singular dominant pass rusher. The irony is that this years team is on a pace for more sacks then last year when UM had two extraordinary rush ends. The official description is UM is attempting to implement the Ravens "Amoeba" defense. The concept is to confuse a QB in not knowing who is rushing and who is dropping into coverage. It depends on more personal being so generic, it is difficult to not only figure out who is rushing/covering but who is covering whom. The hope is a QB gets so confused he does not know what is going on. This was a smoke screen as the amoeba defense was used sparingly against OSU. As far as I can tell it was great coverage. A real amoeba other then an off pace formation may be too much for a college team to implement in the time allotted. Caveat, I think the results against OSU would have been different if JSN were healthy. Fleming and Egbuka are great athletes. But they are not at the Olave, Wilson level. And JSN is as good as Harrison Jr. If JSN comes back, I think OSU has a real shot not just to beat Georgia, but to win it all.
How to beat UM. First, you must have faith that your offense will score lots of points. That is what happens in these games. The offense has the advantage. So don't worry if your defense is going to give up points. You just have to stop the other team a few times. Be creative in how you throw extra hats into run defense. Do it too much, UM counters will got you for house calls. OSU was too predictable in their zeal to cover every run gap. If you do get got, limit to just a chunk play instead of a house call. If UM passes, make McCarthy throw, not run. That means lane discipline on the pass rush. Take advantage of the smaller catch radius of the receivers. McCarthy might miss some receivers even if they have step. Give them three and he will hit. McCarthy is not confident enough yet to make plays on NFL open. That is the temptation you need to present to McCarthy. Next year is his year, not this year. Spend the extra time making sure power, which is extinct in the Big12 is practiced and is no longer a novelty when the game begins. Don't worry if you give up some points. You will get yours. Being pedantic because that is important. Just don't get stuck in too many 15 play drives. On offense have your best players running their best plays. UM is going to tempt a team into attempting a play because on paper it looks like a good matchup, but its not your A+ call. Ignore the temptation and believe your stars will make the play. Don't put the game in the third string TE's hands. Don't fall for the trap just because there are six men in the box. UM wants you to run even on 3rd and 2, unless that is what you really want to do. They are banking their line will win the double and you will not convert.
And lastly have fun. Focused is fine. But a fun team is a winning team.
Interesting post. Thanks. One question which is probably a dumb one. What does RPS stand for?
Bruce Berry
Active Member
This was my point exactly.
Bruce Berry
Active Member
Thanks for this. Two things you should know....
We haven't forgotten Harbaugh trashing us in the coaches poll a few years ago. Pissing the people on this board off is not something he wants to do.
Everything runs through Lubbock.
gohornedfrogs
Tier 1
There's already an NIL plan to try to counteract this. It should help some, but I still think some of the "marquee" players will opt out.
hfhmilkman
Active Member
RPS is short for Rock, Paper, Scissors. When I say winning RPS that means one side having an advantage because of scheme and/or formation. This can be due to either a novel play/scheme being introduced or just normal play calls. I will give a simple example. One of the battles during a potential outside run play is setting the edge. A Harbaugh trick is to induce edge responsibilities being owned by a smaller player and get a bigger blocker like a TE on a corner. If this happens because of scheme, we say RPS. Ditto for a defense coordinator who calls a blitz that is not identified by the offense. Defense has an advantage because there is a free rusher.
Winning RPS does not mean the play is won. The QB may make a great play despite the free hitter that was initially missed. Perhaps the corner wins the block against the TE. Its just like any analytic. Statistics eventually go to the mean. Put your side in enough advantageous situations, and you are more likely to win more plays.
hfhmilkman
Active Member
I do not like NIL because it is breaking competition. It allows for the instant team, example USC. It also breaks the integrity of the conferences. It makes it even harder for the non-powers to pull an upset. Lesser powers could build a program with astute recruiting. Find unwanted players that the recruiting guru's overlooked. Now a lazy but money laden school can just induce players to leave for NIL. If Texas A&M or USC observes that a former 2 star at Iowa is actually a 1st day NFL pick, they can raid.
I am not against college players being compensated. My problem is that the product will degrade as not only does the recruited talent go to a few programs, it resets every year. The NFL is popular because of an equal playing field. The recourse is college football will need to go to a soccer format. Throw all the paying institutions into the A league and everyone else into the B. Relegation can be used to allow for movement.
This will be catastrophic for the schools that can't keep up as they have gotten used to the TV dollars that they will no longer have access to. College football can really mess this up if they are not careful.
All they’d have to do is make kids sit out a year if they transfer, like they used to. Would fix the problem almost instantly. But they won’t do it, probably scared of getting sued or something, I don’t know.
Eight
Member
wait....
integrity of the conference?
scheiss the conferences and this from an alum for a school that was left for dead and told we weren't worthy by groups that have no real purpose other than peel off their share for work they didn't actually perform
similar to someone using a gif instead of their own words to reply
NewFrogFan
Full Member
hfhmilkman
Active Member
I think you are miss interpreting when I say integrity of the conference. I will elaborate. I am not concerned about the conference body itself but the teams left out in the name of pragmatism and money. When I talk about the integrity of the conference, I am talking about relevant football being played at Iowa, Wisconsin, IU, MSU etc. Excluding potential PAC12 adds, only UM, OSU and PSU have the resources to compete in a potential free for all. Same thing in Texas. How can TCU compete against Texas and Texas A&M, if those schools have tens of millions to throw at players? Its already happening now. There are all sorts of insinuations of player tampering. Just like bagmen networks are never spoken of as if it is the language of Mordor, never spoken in the light of day.
In my opinion what makes college football great is not Alabama, Clemson, nor OSU. Unless you are a homer, watching one of those programs toy with a lesser school as their parade of NFL prospects torch kids with an order of magnitude less talent. Watching Iowa verses Wisconsin is far more entertaining for me. Watching one of these teams bushwhack a blue blood is even more entertaining. Its what makes the NFL great. NIL is yet another weapon for the haves to poach the have nots.
I will agree with you scheiss the conferences and the NCAA. In their short term greed they may kill the golden goose. They walked away from any pretense of enforcement and integrity in the name of protecting the tactical of dollars and relevancy. I do not know what will happen after the chaos.
