tcuseagull
Active Member
Our performance yesterday, did us no favors, but we survived (on the road in poor conditions), unlike many other ranked teams. Unfortunately, nothing that happened yesterday in other games was much to our benefit.
Miami dropping the ball against Florida State made our path to the playoff much, much harder. We could still really use a Florida State loss to Boston College, Florida (just fired Muschamp), or Georgia Tech/Duke in the ACC championship. I'm not going to count on any of those teams for the upset, and sadly I predict Florida State will make the playoffs.
A Baylor loss might secure our spot in the playoffs. The H2H comparison is killing us in the PR-battle. TCU's path to the playoffs get much clearer if Baylor trips up. I really doubt Oklahoma State or Tech have what it takes to compete with Baylor, but you never know. Otherwise, our hopes and dreams might lay with Kansas State.
Ole Miss needs to beat Mississippi State, enough said. Also, if the SEC East champ can somehow win the SEC championship, that would be huge, as that might be enough to knock out the SEC.
Any Oregon loss eliminates the Pac-12 from the playoff. They do have a rivalry game @Oregon State, who just knocked off Arizona State. That game or the Pac 12 championship could be their downfall.
The Big 10 actually did us a few small favors. Minnesota looked like a Top 25 team against Ohio State, and if they can just win one of their two remaining games @Nebraska or @Wisconsin, that gives us a win over a P5 8-4 team. I think Minnesota has enough in them for one more upset, and finish the season ranked 20-25. Lastly, Ohio State winning out might help us get to the playoffs. We are looking at a real scenario where Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State are all fighting for one spot. Baylor narrowly wins the argument against TCU, TCU wins the argument against Ohio State, and it's starting to look like Ohio State would win an argument against Baylor. If Baylor finishes 11-1 and Ohio State finishes 12-1, the committee is rewarding Baylor for a horrific OOC, and punishing Ohio State for scheduling a respectable P5 non-conference opponent. I don't think Ohio State has any argument over TCU. This is going to be a very intriguing storyline to watch, especially with Arizona State also out of the picture.
In synopsis, and in order of most importance:
1. Win out
2. Ohio State stays at one loss as long as Baylor stays at one loss (but hope they both lose anyway)
3. Ole Miss defeats Mississippi State
4. Upsets for Alabama, Oregon, and/or Florid State
5. Minnesota beats Nebraska (possible) and/or Wisconsin (not quite as likely)
Miami dropping the ball against Florida State made our path to the playoff much, much harder. We could still really use a Florida State loss to Boston College, Florida (just fired Muschamp), or Georgia Tech/Duke in the ACC championship. I'm not going to count on any of those teams for the upset, and sadly I predict Florida State will make the playoffs.
A Baylor loss might secure our spot in the playoffs. The H2H comparison is killing us in the PR-battle. TCU's path to the playoffs get much clearer if Baylor trips up. I really doubt Oklahoma State or Tech have what it takes to compete with Baylor, but you never know. Otherwise, our hopes and dreams might lay with Kansas State.
Ole Miss needs to beat Mississippi State, enough said. Also, if the SEC East champ can somehow win the SEC championship, that would be huge, as that might be enough to knock out the SEC.
Any Oregon loss eliminates the Pac-12 from the playoff. They do have a rivalry game @Oregon State, who just knocked off Arizona State. That game or the Pac 12 championship could be their downfall.
The Big 10 actually did us a few small favors. Minnesota looked like a Top 25 team against Ohio State, and if they can just win one of their two remaining games @Nebraska or @Wisconsin, that gives us a win over a P5 8-4 team. I think Minnesota has enough in them for one more upset, and finish the season ranked 20-25. Lastly, Ohio State winning out might help us get to the playoffs. We are looking at a real scenario where Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State are all fighting for one spot. Baylor narrowly wins the argument against TCU, TCU wins the argument against Ohio State, and it's starting to look like Ohio State would win an argument against Baylor. If Baylor finishes 11-1 and Ohio State finishes 12-1, the committee is rewarding Baylor for a horrific OOC, and punishing Ohio State for scheduling a respectable P5 non-conference opponent. I don't think Ohio State has any argument over TCU. This is going to be a very intriguing storyline to watch, especially with Arizona State also out of the picture.
In synopsis, and in order of most importance:
1. Win out
2. Ohio State stays at one loss as long as Baylor stays at one loss (but hope they both lose anyway)
3. Ole Miss defeats Mississippi State
4. Upsets for Alabama, Oregon, and/or Florid State
5. Minnesota beats Nebraska (possible) and/or Wisconsin (not quite as likely)
