The thing we have going for us is that if we beat Iowa State we would have beaten everyone on our schedule
That was the main argument in favor of Oregon in 2014
Definitely. The only difference for us would be losing our conference championship game, while Oregon won their conference championship game in a rematch against a team they previously lost to. And our loss would be the last game of the season, so the freshest in the committees minds.
In my scenario, it would be Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and the either a 12-1 TCU, or a 2 loss team. Those would be the only options left for spot #4.
I don’t remember the committee ever having put in a 2 loss Power 5 team over a 1 loss Power 5 team. But I would not be surprised if TCU was the first to be left out.