I don't think we're destined to be one of the worst in conference this year like several here have expressed. I think we have a clear top 4 in the conference, but of those 4 the only 2 I feel like we're totally unlikely to beat are Tech and WVU based on the pressure they apply for 40 minutes and our young team's proclivity for turnovers. We don't have an obscene turnover average, but I feel like the 4 games we play against Tech and WVU could end up averaging over 20 TOs.
I don't think it's likely that we beat Baylor or Kansas, but we've always been competitive with Kansas even when we had less talent. As Moose pointed out I can easily see us putting a solid game together with our talent against one of these teams and giving ourselves a chance at a win.
I feel like ISU and EMAW are a bit more of a known quantity now that we've played them and we all agree those games should be winnable games (especially at home against EMAW).
The remainder of the conference in OU, OSU, and Texas. I really think ISU with Halliburton (as someone else point out) is about as good as any of these teams. They're certainly capable of laying an egg, but also capable of winning games they shouldn't if certain bounces go the right way. I feel like we fit into that group.
If we think 8 conference wins gets us into the dance then we need to find 6 more. If we can steal one from the top 4 of the conference that means we need to find 5 more from our remaining 8 games against UT, OU, OSU, ISU, and EMAW. I don't feel like that is impossible or even unrealistic. We are better defensively this year and make things much harder on our opponents than years past. We have a lot more athleticism and raw talent than in years past. We seem to be showing improvement over the last few games and are on the right trajectory. We also have a burgeoning stud in RJ (my Brandon Parrish comparisons from last season are starting to look better and better) who can take some pressure off of Bane when we need to score the ball.
I'd argue that we have a chance to win every game this year where Bane and RJ both score 17+ and KS doesn't get in foul trouble (he's been surprisingly good about this so far in the season). The chances are even better when we're not playing one of the top 4 teams. I'm not predicting a tourney bid, but I wouldn't be honest if I said I wouldn't be disappointed if we didn't ear one. I think this team has enough going for it right now that we should be disappointed with less than the NCAAs.