Let's do 9 wins or greater. I would guess that each conference has at least 1 10-win and 1 9-win team on average, each season. Some years there are 2 10-win teams, or 2 9-win teams or some combination thereof.
That means that on the low average, 22 teams in the FBS hit the 9-win mark (or greater) each year. That comes out to about 17-18%.
Did a small portion of my own research in regards to the sanctity of the 10+ win season being the true measuring stick of the great programs/teams/coaches each year in this era:
**2020 - 7 (Omit due to rampant COVID anomalies around the country)
10-Year Review:
2019 - 22
2018 - 20
2017 - 21 (TCU #9 / 11-3)
2016 - 18
2015 - 22 (TCU #7 / 11-2)
2014 - 19 (TCU #3 / 12-1)
2013 - 20
2012 - 21
2011 - 23 (TCU #14 / 11-2)
2010 - 21 (TCU #2 / 13-0)
Notes:
- 10 year average 20.7 teams with 10+ wins
- Obviously a repeating cast of characters make up many of these 207 total teams/coaches with a 10+ win season during that decade stretch.
- Assume 120 eligible D1 teams each year for 1,200 possibilities.
- That would mean 17.25% of all D1 schedules resulted in the team winning 10+ games over the 10-year stretch.
- Around 20 programs make up +\- 75% of those 10+ win seasons meaning among all the rest it’s more like 5% of all other D1 programs making it to 10 wins any given season.
- I’m glad that I don’t have to pick a coach to take over a program and have my life on the line for the guy to win 10+ games even once, much less on repeat.
- Don’t tell me that looking at that chart doesn’t make you at least a little bit nauseous if you love TCU football.
- Coach Dykes…hope you’ve got your selling shoes on to close out recruiting and have a hell of a staff right out of the gate because the leash may be shorter than anybody imagines for yourself and the folks that engineered this one if things don’t go as planned.