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GoFrogs: No. 11 Baylor at TCU MBB Preview

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog

GoFrogs: No. 11 Baylor at TCU MBB Preview
FORT WORTH – TCU (19-8, 8-6) will host No. 11 Baylor (19-8, 8-6) Monday at 8 p.m. on ESPN's Big Monday platform.

NOTES
- TCU is 12-2 at home this season and 102-36 under Jamie Dixon, including 39-31 in Big 12 games.
- Seven of TCU's eight losses are in NET Quadrant 1 games.
- TCU is 3-7 in Q1 games and has two more opportunities for Q1 wins, starting Monday against Baylor.
- TCU is 4-5 against AP Top 25 teams this season and 4-2 against the top 15.
- Of TCU's 37 wins over AP Top 25 teams in its history, 23 have come under Dixon.
- TCU is 5-4 on the road this season, its most since winning six road games in the 2004-05 season.
- Emanuel Miller leads the team and ranks tied for fifth in the Big 12 with 16.5 points per game.
- Miller has scored in double figures in each of the last 15 games and reached 20 points seven times this season.
- Miller is the team leader in rebounds with 5.9 per game, which ranks 12th in the Big 12.
- Miller ranks third in the Big 12 in field goal percentage at 49.0.
- At 1,181 points, Miller ranks 22nd on TCU's all-time scoring list.
- Ernest Udeh Jr. has missed the last two games with a left leg injury suffered at Kansas State.
- Trevian Tennyson ranks second in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage at 43.7.
- Tennyson has made 2.6 threes in Big 12 games this season, which ranks second in the league.
- Jameer Nelson Jr. ranks fourth in the Big 12 and 36th nationally with 2.1 steals per game.
- Nelson is one of three players in the Big 12 that is averaging at least 10 points, 3.0 assists and 2.0 steals per game.
- When trailing by 10 or more points, TCU is 6-4, including 3-1 in road games.
- TCU has used five different starting lineups, including four in the last five games. TCU used 15 last year.
- TCU leads the nation with 19.5 fastbreak points per game.
- TCU leads the Big 12 and ranks 25th nationally in shortest offensive possession length at 15.8 seconds.
- TCU ranks third in the Big 12 and 17th nationally with 9.2 steals per game.
- TCU ranks third in the Big 12 and 21st nationally with 15.1 turnovers forced per game.
- The Frogs have forced 13 or more turnovers in all but five games this season.
- TCU ranks third in the Big 12 and 10th nationally with 17.7 assists per game. The best under Dixon is 18.9 in '17-'18.
- TCU ranks third in the Big 12 with 81.3 points per game. The best under Dixon is 75.4 in '17-'18.
- TCU is shooting 72.4 percent from the free throw line. The best under Jamie Dixon is 70.6 percent in 2017-18.
- TCU ranks third in the Big 12 and 28th nationally in field goal percentage at 48.0 percent.
- In Big 12 games only, TCU is first in scoring offense (77.1) and first in 3-point percentage (38.2).
- With one more win, TCU will have 20 wins for the sixth time in the eight seasons under Dixon.
- Of the sixteen 20-win seasons in TCU's history, five have come in the last seven seasons.
- A win would give Dixon his 18th 20-win season in his 21 seasons as a head coach.
- TCU is looking for three-straight trips to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in school history.

LAST TIME OUT
- TCU won its first-ever game against Cincinnati, 75-57, Saturday at Schollmaier Arena.
- JaKobe Coles and Emanuel Miller led the Frogs with 18 points each. Miller also led the team in rebounds and assists with six each.
- Against one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, TCU won the battle on the boards, 33-32.

ABOUT THE OPPONENT
- Baylor (19-18, 8-6) is coming off an 82-76 overtime loss to No. 2 Houston at home on Saturday.
- The Bears are led by freshman Ja'Kobe Walters' 14.7 points per game, which ranks 11th in the conference.
- Baylor is the top 3-point shooting team in the conference at 39.6, which also ranks fourth nationally.
- The Bears offensive efficiency of 123.6 ranks fifth nationally.

Series History
- Baylor leads the all-time series, 104-87. It will be the 192nd meeting in the series.
- TCU is 6-6 against Baylor since the 2017-18 season. Its last sweep over the Bears came in 2018.
- TCU won the meeting earlier this season, 105-102 in triple overtime behind 30 points by Jameer Nelson Jr.
- TCU leads the series in Fort Worth, 45-44, but Baylor has won the last three with TCU's last win coming on Feb. 29, 2020. The 75-72 win over the No. 2 Bears was TCU's highest ranked win over a team at home.

UP NEXT
- TCU play at BYU on Saturday at 8 p.m. CT on Big 12 Now on ESPN+.
 

4 Oaks Frog

Active Member
Interesting how baylor and TCU have exact overall records and conference record, yet TCU is not ranked while baylor is #11. How does that work?…
GO FROGS!
BEAT baylor!
Spit Blood~~<~<and fornicate baylor!!
 

ReedFrawg

Full Member
Interesting how baylor and TCU have exact overall records and conference record, yet TCU is not ranked while baylor is #11. How does that work?…
GO FROGS!
BEAT baylor!
Spit Blood~~<~<and fornicate baylor!!

Not to mention we beat them at their place. Makes no sense we have been ranked so far behind BYU, OU, Tech and others all season.
 

JogginFrog

Active Member
Interesting how baylor and TCU have exact overall records and conference record, yet TCU is not ranked while baylor is #11. How does that work?…
GO FROGS!
BEAT baylor!
Spit Blood~~<~<and fornicate baylor!!
Also, TCU is 7-6 road/neutral; Baylor is 6-6. Margin of victory? Baylor's point differential in Big 12 play is +38; TCU's is +31. These teams have been very close for 2 months.

Where TCU is getting killed in these algorithms is non-con strength of schedule. Baylor's ranks 117th, TCU's 353rd.

That, plus "game control" (average likelihood of winning across 40 minutes). When your team is consistently down 10 points early (but ends up winning by 3), the algorithms don't like you as much as a team that is consistently up 10 points early (and ends up winning by 3).

At the end of the season, I don't see the committee giving one Big 12 team a 4-seed advantage over another with identical overall and conference records on the basis of game control and quality of non-con losses (Baylor's to Duke & Michigan State; TCU's to Clemson & Nevada).
 

JogginFrog

Active Member
But TCU's metrics have been trending up, and this team looks more like a 7/8 seed this week than a 9/10 seed a couple weeks ago. A second win over Baylor--especially by double-digits--would go a long way toward getting TCU up to that 6 line that makes a big difference in its chances of getting to the second weekend.
 

hometown frog

Active Member
Also, TCU is 7-6 road/neutral; Baylor is 6-6. Margin of victory? Baylor's point differential in Big 12 play is +38; TCU's is +31. These teams have been very close for 2 months.

Where TCU is getting killed in these algorithms is non-con strength of schedule. Baylor's ranks 117th, TCU's 353rd.
This. If we want to be thought of as a >6 seed or better, we just have to stop playing so many body bag teams that first 2-3 weeks of the season.
 

4 Oaks Frog

Active Member
Also, TCU is 7-6 road/neutral; Baylor is 6-6. Margin of victory? Baylor's point differential in Big 12 play is +38; TCU's is +31. These teams have been very close for 2 months.

Where TCU is getting killed in these algorithms is non-con strength of schedule. Baylor's ranks 117th, TCU's 353rd.

That, plus "game control" (average likelihood of winning across 40 minutes). When your team is consistently down 10 points early (but ends up winning by 3), the algorithms don't like you as much as a team that is consistently up 10 points early (and ends up winning by 3).

At the end of the season, I don't see the committee giving one Big 12 team a 4-seed advantage over another with identical overall and conference records on the basis of game control and quality of non-con losses (Baylor's to Duke & Michigan State; TCU's to Clemson & Nevada).
“Algorithm smalgoithm…What’s Al Gore got to do with it” …George W. Bush
 

Froggy Style

Active Member
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