Big 12 in position to poach Pac 12 schools?

[Palliative Care]

It is possible that Apple may acquire Disney. If so what strange things could be imagined in televised events.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

I think it’s better for college football to have a viable PAC conference. Good news if true.

The PAC will be viable as long as the B1G sits tight, so they have 1 month to 6 years left.

The streaming money is interesting. It has been assumed conference consolidation was coming quickly because of limited media money slowing conference growth.
The streamers appear to be ready to throw large amounts of startup capital into the game, which could at least delay consolidation.

Assuming they can get 8 teams to approve, the PAC media deal will be a 3 to 5 year window. Either way they are inside of us on the next window, even worse they could do two 3 year windows and be right on top of us in their 2nd window. Then we’ll truly see who has the bigger brands and who does the poaching.

Consolidation will eventually arrive. It’s just a matter of who gets crushed first, us or the PAC.
The ACC is already dead. In approx. 6 years the business case for moving from the ACC to the B1G becomes positive. They will never see another media negotiating window.

 

[Traveling Frog]

The only way streaming is going to be successful in sports is to have a sport website and writers. There is nothing on the MLS now. Apple needs to be pumping out content that news and other platforms like yahoo pick up. They need their own website to post it all. The major sports broadcasters alll washed trot hands of the mls

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Source: New Pac-12 rights deal in 'near future'

The Pac-12 will not announce a new media rights deal Friday, a source told ESPN, but the conference's patience "is about to pay off" in the "near future."

www.espn.com

Not Friday, but real soon and very good.

I'm shocked, sir.

Apple has more money than the US mint. I’d still be surprised if they paid $300m when they didn’t need to, but who knows.

I also think Colo. is still coming. From what I was seeing that was pretty much a hand shake deal just waiting on the formal application.

I just hope it’s not Colo. only, and then we get UConn as the second team.
I think I’d rather get nothing.

 

[Eight]

Apple has more money than the US mint. I’d still be surprised if they paid $300m when they didn’t need to, but who knows.

I also think Colo. is still coming. From what I was seeing that was pretty much a hand shake deal just waiting on the formal application.

I just hope it’s not Colo. only, and then we get UConn as the second team.
I think I’d rather get nothing.

heck no to uconn and no to colorado if they are coming without the other 3 corner schools

 

[82 Frog Fever]

heck no to uconn and no to colorado if they are coming without the other 3 corner schools

I think I’m there too. Not necessarily Colorado or the other 3, but if UConn is in any way included, I’d rather get nothing.

 

[Limey Frog]

heck no to uconn and no to colorado if they are coming without the other 3 corner schools

I don't think Colorado comes alone; I still think that if they move the whole thing unravels and you get everyone else, too. But at this point, I don't believe they're moving.

The Pac 12 "negotiations" seem like some much more complicated* version of repeatedly asking "how about now?" Then, when the answer is still something other than "yes, at $350M/yr", Kliavkoff tells member schools that a deal is "imminent" but there's nothing to present yet. Then those schools' administrators tell their people that they can't in good faith think about moving until they know the final terms of the deal. Then Kliavkoff goes back to the media companies and asks "how about now?"

Colorado's leadership is going to sit tight because they don't actually want to be in the Big 12, and eventually it will be so late in the day that moving for the fall of 2024 will not be logistically feasible. At that point, and only at that point, Kliavkoff will serve up the details of an utter s--t sandwich and tell everyone they have to eat it.

[*No, I'm not a media rights consultant, nor have I ever negotiated a multi-million dollar contract. I've seen a few articles to the effect that people don't really understand how this works, blah blah blah. Well, of course we don't know the finer nuances of a job we don't personally do; no one does. But is it obvious that this thing hasn't gone to plan and still isn't going to plan? Yes. If you're smart enough to be the Chancellor of the University of Colorado, you don't have to be an expert to know that this thing is a dumpster fire and is beyond the point of hope that it will end well. If you're still waiting at this point, you've committed to wait forever.]

 

[fanatical frog]

Colorado's leadership is going to sit tight because they don't actually want to be in the Big 12, and eventually it will be so late in the day that moving for the fall of 2024 will not be logistically feasible.

IIRC, GSR said in a post a few days back that he's been told 2024 is already not feasible.

 

[Limey Frog]

He did, and if that's the case then surely we're already at the point that no one is going to move. Right now the Pac 12 has no media rights agreement at all for 2024/25. If Colorado isn't in a different league next fall they can't be in the Pac without the Pac having signed a new deal. That deal can't happen without a GOR, and Colorado can't stay for one year without signing the full term GOR, at which point you're stuck because Big 12 money isn't good enough to make it worth paying an exit fee, negotiating out of a GOR, etc. No Pac team is coming in for 2025; they move now or they don't move at all, I would think.

 

[Wexahu]

I don't think Colorado comes alone; I still think that if they move the whole thing unravels and you get everyone else, too. But at this point, I don't believe they're moving.

The Pac 12 "negotiations" seem like some much more complicated* version of repeatedly asking "how about now?" Then, when the answer is still something other than "yes, at $350M/yr", Kliavkoff tells member schools that a deal is "imminent" but there's nothing to present yet. Then those schools' administrators tell their people that they can't in good faith think about moving until they know the final terms of the deal. Then Kliavkoff goes back to the media companies and asks "how about now?"

Colorado's leadership is going to sit tight because they don't actually want to be in the Big 12, and eventually it will be so late in the day that moving for the fall of 2024 will not be logistically feasible. At that point, and only at that point, Kliavkoff will serve up the details of an utter s--t sandwich and tell everyone they have to eat it.

[*No, I'm not a media rights consultant, nor have I ever negotiated a multi-million dollar contract. I've seen a few articles to the effect that people don't really understand how this works, blah blah blah. Well, of course we don't know the finer nuances of a job we don't personally do; no one does. But is it obvious that this thing hasn't gone to plan and still isn't going to plan? Yes. If you're smart enough to be the Chancellor of the University of Colorado, you don't have to be an expert to know that this thing is a dumpster fire and is beyond the point of hope that it will end well. If you're still waiting at this point, you've committed to wait forever.]

I doubt any PAC programs will leave for the Big 12 unless the difference in rights fee is larger than what is being discussed.

Everyone wants to be in one of two conferences, and the Big 12 isn't one of those. They aren't going to jump ship for what would basically be a lateral move, they'll still be in a position that they don't want to be in. The only way things get shaken up IMO is if Washington and/or Oregon get invited to the Big 10, then we'll just have a merger of sorts and in the end, not much of a difference in the power structure in college sports.

 

[BrewingFrog]

So, if it is "too late" for teams to bolt the PAC, Kliavkoff has successfully stonewalled and run out the clock on CO, AZ, UT, Az St. bolting. Shrewd...

That was the point of the exercise. Whatever the Media deal, it won't pay like the B12 deal, and it will be with non-trad sources that are not generally noted for sports. Kliavkoff's delay strategy has trapped them in what is likely to be an uncomfortable deal.

I somehow think that BY has the ability to still make something happen for '24. It's just logistics...

 

[fanatical frog]

I doubt any PAC programs will leave for the Big 12 unless the difference in rights fee is larger than what is being discussed. Agree

Everyone wants to be in one of two conferences, and the Big 12 isn't one of those. Agree They aren't going to jump ship for what would basically be a lateral move, they'll still be in a position that they don't want to be in. Agree The only way things get shaken up IMO is if Washington and/or Oregon get invited to the Big 10, then we'll just have a merger of sorts Agree and in the end, not much of a difference in the power structure in college sports. I'm not so sure. Assuming we have the state universities of Utah/Arizona/ Colorado/Kansas and West Virginia we'll have an, at least, stable conference with considerable political clout and, over time, several of our schools will differentiate themselves and emerge as national powers. Therefore, reaching some manner of parity in media contracts.

 

[fanatical frog]

So, if it is "too late" for teams to bolt the PAC, Kliavkoff has successfully stonewalled and run out the clock on CO, AZ, UT, Az St. bolting. Shrewd...

That was the point of the exercise. Whatever the Media deal, it won't pay like the B12 deal, and it will be with non-trad sources that are not generally noted for sports. Kliavkoff's delay strategy has trapped them in what is likely to be an uncomfortable deal.

I somehow think that BY has the ability to still make something happen for '24. It's just logistics...

I agree.

 

[Limey Frog]

I doubt any PAC programs will leave for the Big 12 unless the difference in rights fee is larger than what is being discussed.

Everyone wants to be in one of two conferences, and the Big 12 isn't one of those. They aren't going to jump ship for what would basically be a lateral move, they'll still be in a position that they don't want to be in. The only way things get shaken up IMO is if Washington and/or Oregon get invited to the Big 10, then we'll just have a merger of sorts and in the end, not much of a difference in the power structure in college sports.

This is what I thought until about April, when the saga seemed to have dragged on so long that it really did appear possible that the Pac's situation was dire enough for Colorado and 'Zona to jump without waiting for Oregon to get the call up first. Now I think the moment has passed, for various reasons. As @BrewingFrog said, in the end Kliavkoff's silence and delaying tactics have worked, more's the pity for us and for them. The Pac head office, Wazzu and Oregon State will be the only winners here. (Also Utah's pride.)

On the last point, I agree with BrewingFrog there, too. Power in college athletics exists at the conference level. It probably shouldn't, but it does and will continue to do so in practice. The best security for TCU is to exist in a conference that has the largest number possible of programs that major changes to football and basketball would be practically very unlikely without their inclusion. Colorado, Arizona, ASU, and Utah are closer to that category of institution than BYU, UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston. In addition to being more interesting opponents in football (barely), that's the main reason I've been hoping to add them.

 

[Fred Garvin]

So, if it is "too late" for teams to bolt the PAC, Kliavkoff has successfully stonewalled and run out the clock on CO, AZ, UT, Az St. bolting. Shrewd...

That was the point of the exercise. Whatever the Media deal, it won't pay like the B12 deal, and it will be with non-trad sources that are not generally noted for sports. Kliavkoff's delay strategy has trapped them in what is likely to be an uncomfortable deal.

I somehow think that BY has the ability to still make something happen for '24. It's just logistics...

If this is the final story, do you praise GK for keeping the conference together or fire him for getting all the schools such a terrible deal and stringing them along an extra 6 months?

 

[ShreveFrog]

So if time's up, will Pac stick with 10 members in its agreement after USC and UCLA leave a year from now? Or will the deal allow them to backfill with SDSU and (I guess) SMU? Would Pac presidents even agree to add those schools that will have questionable returns (especially in SMU case) ?

 

[YA]

So if time's up, will Pac stick with 10 members in its agreement after USC and UCLA leave a year from now? Or will the deal allow them to backfill with SDSU and (I guess) SMU? Would Pac presidents even agree to add those schools that will have questionable returns (especially in SMU case) ?

smu will be announced for the pac by end of August or sooner

 

[82 Frog Fever]

So, if it is "too late" for teams to bolt the PAC, Kliavkoff has successfully stonewalled and run out the clock on CO, AZ, UT, Az St. bolting. Shrewd...

That was the point of the exercise. Whatever the Media deal, it won't pay like the B12 deal, and it will be with non-trad sources that are not generally noted for sports. Kliavkoff's delay strategy has trapped them in what is likely to be an uncomfortable deal.

I somehow think that BY has the ability to still make something happen for '24. It's just logistics...

We’ll see, all this rhetoric right before the PAC media days does not feel real.
When I look at the Apple portion, it looks like a lot of tier 3 content, Olympic sports, and possibly a PAC “Big Saturday” pregame with PAC12 Network. They can’t have a huge investment in that.
When I start adding, it‘s hard to get to $20-$24m, much less the $30-$35m figure being thrown around.
There are not enough tier 1-2 games, so I can’t figure out who would bring another $200m to the table over & above the $90m ESPN (now partnered with Comcast) offered for 2 of the 5 games. (and only 4 games on bye weeks)

I believe what Ross Dellenger is saying. This is going to extend into August.
They still dont have a deal. Much of this is a desperate search in the last few remaining weeks and an angle they can use to deflect questions @ their Media Days.
We’ll see, could be wrong, but I think they’re still lying.

FWIW, one P10 outlet, The Monty Show, is reporting the New Pac Executive Committee rejected an 80/20 streaming proposal in the last 2 weeks, which means they wouldn‘t even bring it to a vote. Regardless of the amount, a GOR for an 80% streaming deal wont get approved.

 

[Eight]

smu will be announced for the pac by end of August or sooner

why?

 

[82 Frog Fever]

smu will be announced for the pac by end of August or sooner

IF the PAC has a media deal. Then we’d have to see if the other 10 (or however many are left) schools would agree to dilute the deal by some material percentage to add two teams.
SMU is probably 1st on the list and I believe they’d have a 27 month notice and $10m exit fee.