Skip Jansen
Active Member
Right now KenPom gives us a 6% chance of making the NCAA tournament which sounds about right. Has us finishing 8-10 in Big 12 play.
I don't think the Big 12 is strong enough this year to where 8-10 would get it done, especially when we swung and missed on all 3 of our non-conference games against teams that aren't bad.
I think to make it as an at-large, we need to go 9-9 at worst, and have a win over one of the Big 3 - Baylor, Kansas, WVU. Beating Arkansas would also help to give us a non conference win that doesn't suck.
I agree that 9 conference wins is probably the magic number (w/ a win over the big 3). I think the Big 12 will get six in ultimately. The committee says they don't pay attention to that, but that's a lie.
Big 12 may not seem as strong this year, but it's still the 2nd highest rated conference in NET. The fact of the matter is, the strength all over the country is down. I tried to find 68 deserving teams and found it very difficult.