The "maybes / reach" games to me are Ohio State, OU, WVU, and (hold laughter) Texas. I could see us losing all of them, plus maybe one more, but we could also surprise. Anything from 7-5 to 9-3 seems reasonable to me.
Really, we've got the biggest wildcards at the two most important positions for Big 12 football. It could all come together, or it could all fall apart spectacularly and we're back to 2013.
Other than WVU (Grier) and EMAW (Delton) who doesn't have huge question marks at the QB position in the B12?
I guess OU has Murray with a decent amount of experience, but his success at aTm doesn't exactly scream scary QB position. I see them being much more one dimensional with KM if he's there. Truthfully, BM's scrambling ability is what made that offense so potent. They had 25% of plays completely blow up on them and 95% of those turned out positive. KM won't don't that. And will he even be on the football roster this fall or will he be playing minor league baseball?
I assume Iowa State may go with Kempt, but was he consistent enough to know at this point? Texas will say it's Ehlinger, but that's only until he sustains his 19th concussion of his college career in Week 2. After him it sounds like it won't be Boo so they're very thin there too.
After that, literally everyone is starting someone at QB who's seen very limited action or none at all in the college game and most of them don't have top end WRs returning to help ease them in either. Maybe Kansas has an experienced starter, but if they do he's still a huge question mark and it's not clear if he'll have any WRs even if there are bodies lined up in those positions.
I guess I say all that to say the entire conference is very much up in the air this year with inexperience at the most important position. I can see anything from 6-6 (really horrible OL and QB play) to 12-0 (obviously terrific OL and QB play). I think I'm much more confident in the QB position than 6-6 and I really think our defense will be good enough to win a couple games the offense tries to lose so I'm going 10-2, but won't be at all surprised if we go 12-0. This defense is going to be tons of fun to watch against the inexperienced QBs in the conference this year.