Vegas bettors don't really like the Frogs so far

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

http://philsteele.com/Blogs/2011/Jun11/DBJune20.html

Tcu-AIR FORCE open -6'; current -1'
TCU-Smu -12; -10
Tcu-SAN DIEGO ST -6'; -5'
Tcu-Byu @Arlington -7; -2'
BOISE ST-Tcu -13'; -14'

Since the lines opened a week ago, all have moved away from the Frogs, by an average of almost 3 points, with big moves in the AFA and BYU games.

Obviously this means little this far in advance (and the one game where an early line is reasonable- Baylor- isn't even listed), but it interesting how the early action seems to think the Frogs were overrated by the bookies who set the opening lines. I think people look at returning starters and sometimes overemphasize that number, and that may be happening here.

 

[Frognosticator]

http://philsteele.com/Blogs/2011/Jun11/DBJune20.html

Tcu-AIR FORCE open -6'; current -1'
TCU-Smu -12; -10
Tcu-SAN DIEGO ST -6'; -5'
Tcu-Byu @Arlington -7; -2'
BOISE ST-Tcu -13'; -14'

Since the lines opened a week ago, all have moved away from the Frogs, by an average of almost 3 points, with big moves in the AFA and BYU games.

Obviously this means little this far in advance (and the one game where an early line is reasonable- Baylor- isn't even listed), but it interesting how the early action seems to think the Frogs were overrated by the bookies who set the opening lines. I think people look at returning starters and sometimes overemphasize that number, and that may be happening here.

We're losing the all-time winningest QB in school history, 4 incredible WRs, 4 starting O-linemen, 3 starting D-linemen, 3 starting safeties and a CB. On paper, we're going to have a tough year.

And that's exactly the way LHCGP wants it.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

We're losing the all-time winningest QB in school history, 4 incredible WRs, 4 starting O-linemen, 3 starting D-linemen, 3 starting safeties and a CB. On paper, we're going to have a tough year.

And that's exactly the way LHCGP wants it.

Yeah, but supposedly the bookies took that into account when they set the lines. Apparently, the bettors are more pessimistic after reading the preview magazines (or they are higher on AFA and BYU).

 

[Frognosticator]

Yeah, but supposedly the bookies took that into account when they set the lines. Apparently, the bettors are more pessimistic after reading the preview magazines (or they are higher on AFA and BYU).

What can you do? We went 8-5 against the spread last year. It really doesn't matter. Boise will be favored against us this year. They've got the 4th year QB, home field, and facing a team that lost 26 seniors. Like I said, on paper, we look significantly weaker than last year.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

What can you do? We went 8-5 against the spread last year. It really doesn't matter. Boise will be favored against us this year. They've got the 4th year QB, home field, and facing a team that lost 26 seniors. Like I said, on paper, we look significantly weaker than last year.

Not complaining about it, just making an observation. The betting public is bearish on the Frogs at this point, even more so than the "experts" (all preview mags have had us in the 11-17 range, while the bettors are considering us equal to teams like BYU and AFA who aren't even sniffing the top 25).

I agree that GP uses disrespect as a motivating factor- looks like he'll have plenty of ammo.

 

[DickBumpastache]

I like it. It's an opportunity to clean up. There is no value in lines like -6.5 @ AF. I wouldn't touch that line. But if it's under a field goal, you have a lot more points to play with.

I made the bet of my life on TCU -4.5 @ Utah last season. It's all about recognizing value. As long as these lines continue to drop, TCU becomes a much better investment. Of course, this is all assuming that we have the team we think we have...

 

[Trelvis]

Still cant believe the Boise line opened that big.

 

[YCBJ Frog]

Still cant believe the Boise line opened that big.

Me neither. I almost jumped on it just in case the spread dropped, but I'm glad I didn't. If it drifts back down to -13 between now and when the season starts, I'll probably lay a bill on it. If not, I'll just wait and keep having them hand me points between now and kickoff of week 1. Then again, if Boise impresses against Georgia, they'll probably give us a couple more in week 2.

 

[berryfrog95]

I laid the house on TCU at Utah last year....... and I would lay the house on TCU at Air Force this year at -1, despite what happens in the Baylor game. 2 years ago in the ice bowl at air force we didn't cover either, plus I think one our last road losses was at AirForce in conference play so no way was that line staying at -6?

 

[Trelvis]

Even if it drops to 10 or so, I still think thats too big. TCU might lose, but it wont be by double digits IMO.

 

[YCBJ Frog]

Even if it drops to 10 or so, I still think thats too big. TCU might lose, but it wont be by double digits IMO.

Oh no, I agree. I'm just going to jump on it before it gets that low, which I think it probably will as the season advances. If they're giving away free points, I'm going to take as many as I can. I'll probably end up with a bill on TCU +13/+14, then if Boise beats Georgia and the line moves up I'll probably double down (unless Boise beats Georgia in a way that scares the scheisse out of me).

 

[Army Frog Fan]

You know who else was a ranked team and was a big underdog to BSU?

 

[PurpleDaze]

Maybe the oddsmakers attended the spring football game and saw the OL play.

Going to be a long year for those thinking we go 10-2 or better.

Realistically, after back-to-back BCS Bowl appearances, I will consider 8-4 a successful year while we reload and keep the losses close. Remember what happened to Texas last year (5-7). Its difficult to sustain that high level of success.

Hopefully, TCU will gain needed experience in 2011 and be loaded for bear in the inaugural Big East season in 2012.

Go Frogs!

 

[Limp Lizard]

I have a funny feeling that the bets that dropped the line were not the "smart" money, just fans visiting Vegas. I would imagine the pros will wait and see what transpires with this year's team (or any college FB team) before making bets.

BTW, I will be in Vegas next week. How do you...or can you...make a sports bet in Vegas and leave and wait to get paid back in Texas?

 

[Army Frog Fan]

You get a ticket receipt from the sports book. If you win, you have to take the ticket back to the sports book after the event. I am sure there is some time frame allowed for folks out of town to keep the ticket valid. Probably a year from the event.

 

[2314@work]

Remember what happened to Texas last year (5-7)

 

[McFroggin]

You get a ticket receipt from the sports book. If you win, you have to take the ticket back to the sports book after the event. I am sure there is some time frame allowed for folks out of town to keep the ticket valid. Probably a year from the event.

The last time I was there each sports book had different expiration dates. I remember one being only 60 days.

 

[PurpleDaze]

You can mail in the winning ticket to the sportsbook and they will mail you a check.

 

[YCBJ Frog]

I have a funny feeling that the bets that dropped the line were not the "smart" money, just fans visiting Vegas. I would imagine the pros will wait and see what transpires with this year's team (or any college FB team) before making bets.

Exactly the opposite of what you just said is how professional bettors make money. Hitting the early lines, especially right when they come out is done almost exclusively by people that make a living on sportsbooking.

 

[TheSheik]

You can mail in the winning ticket to the sportsbook and they will mail you a check.

This. Just did it about a month ago, probably a week turnaround.