Strength of Schedule

[TexiCaliFrog]

Seems I remember reading once before that in Strength of Schedule calculations, wins and losses between shared opponents cancel each other out - that SOS is determined by total wins and total losses, so that having a 10-0 and an 0-10 opponent on your schedule, you'd have the same SOS as playing two 5-5 teams. Am I wrong here, or has anyone seen a SOS calculation formula?

The reason I ask is because of this week's Air Force game. Air Force loses to San Diego St., thereby giving up a win and giving it to SDSU. But according to the above logic, since TCU plays both teams, the drop by AFA is increased by the win for SDSU.

If that's the case, then I heard MANY commentators this weekend talk about the strength of schedule hit that TCU would take after Air Force's loss. While I can understand a drop in perceived strength by the voters as a result, I'm not sure that in the computer rankings that it makes a statistical difference.

Anyone? Bueller?

 

[PurplePutt]

Found this on the web. Good luck figuring it out.

The Strength of Schedule is calculated as follows:

The Strength of Schedule component used in the BCS rankings is the quartiled ranking of a team's SOS. In other words all 117 teams are ranked based on the formula described below and the ranking is divided by 25. Thus, the team with the best SOS gets 0.04 points, and the teams ranked 25th gets 1 point added to it BCS total.

The SOS is a weighted average of 2/3 the winning percentage of a team's opponents and 1/3 the winning percentage of the opponent's opponents.

Thus SOS = 2/3*(OpW)/(OpW+OpL) + 1/3*(OpOpW)/(OpOpW + OpOpL) where:
OpW is the sum of all opponents wins minus the number of losses by the team in question minus the number of wins over Div1AA teams
OpL is the sum of all opponents losses minus the number of wins by the team in question
OpOpW is the sum of all opponents wins as calculated above
OpOpL is the sum of all opponents losses as calculated above.

A team's win over an opponent does not get added into the sum of its opponents losses and vise versa. Wins over Div1AA teams do not count but losses do. Victories by Div1AA teams over other Div1AA teams are also discarded but the losses count. Games between Div1AA teams and DivII teams are discarded altogether.

 

[Houston Frog]

That is correct, TCU will not take a SOS hit in the computers based on AFA losing to SDSU. They will take a hit in the minds of voters though, because for some reason in CFB, it makes a huge difference if the team you beat happens to have a ranking in front of their name at the time of the game. A team can receive the 26th most votes, but it doesn't mean anything it seems.... got to be in the top 25 (a completely arbitrary number)

 

[Houston Frog]

Then again, if SDSU wins out and comes into ACS ranked at the end of the year, that could be a big help to us. It is always nice to play a tough opponent at the end, which leaves a good taste in the voters mouths.

 

[SnoSki]

That is correct, TCU will not take a SOS hit in the computers based on AFA losing to SDSU. They will take a hit in the minds of voters though, because for some reason in CFB, it makes a huge difference if the team you beat happens to have a ranking in front of their name at the time of the game. A team can receive the 26th most votes, but it doesn't mean anything it seems.... got to be in the top 25 (a completely arbitrary number)

Adding to what you've said, it seems that media/voters who favor BCS schools (see: mark May) report wins over top-25 teams as of the time of the game, even if said ranked opponent is now unranked, or ranked much lower. For example, Alabama supporters in the media will say that "Bama beat a highly-ranked Arkansas squad" when stating their case... regardless of the fact that Arky just lost again, and may lose 3-4 this year. In their minds, Arky will still hold the top-12ish rank (?) they had at the game time. Not how they ended.

If TCU or Boise play a ranked opponent and beat them, then the opponent goes and loses again, then the opponent is considered overrated afterall. See Boise and their treatment in light of VT's loss to James Madison. Boise beating VT isn't impressive anymore, but if Miami does it.. wow!!

 

[txfrog87]

I think you look at the conference. If the school is in a BCS conference you give their SOS a 10 out of 10. And if the school is in a non-AQ conference you give it the lowest score possible.

 

[rawhider]

Sorry, PurplePutt, but that description is completely useless. At one time there was a distinct SoS component in BCS rankings - apparently that is what is being described. Poll voters think about SoS however they desire. The six BCS computers are said to take SoS into account, but with only one algorithm published, it's hard to say how. It is known that Billingsley is unique in this aspect. If you want to learn a little more, check the "Blog Posts" linked here.

 

[Endless Purple]

rawhider has it correct.