Crunching BCS conference numbers

[HUT-Frog]

Was glancing at the BCS conference AQ evaluation process -- http://www.bcsfootball.org/news/story?id=5126859 -- and wanted to see how the Big East was stacking up with the changes (and various proposed changes) to its alignment.

The last thing I looked at was what I expect to be the least-likely to happen.

Granted, this evaluation process is for adding a 7th AQ for 2012-13 and 2013-14. The Big East is guaranteed an AQ, so long as it holds onto five of its current five-year members. The BCS will begin contract talks within the next year on a new deal for the 2014 season; what the criteria will be for granted AQ status is unknown (but I'm guessing it will look something similar to this.)

To make it easier for you to quote a specific section, I'll break it down into multiple posts in this thread.

 

[HUT-Frog]

From the BCS on conference evaluation for 2012-13 and 2013-14:

Conference evaluations will be made according to its membership as of Dec. 4, 2011.

(1) Ranking of the highest-ranked team in the final BCS Standings each year.
-- (If a conference does not place a team in the final BCS Standings, then its highest-ranked team is determined by the conference member that has the highest average ranking in the computer rankings used in the BCS Standings.)

(2) Final regular-season rankings of ALL conference teams in the computer rankings used by the BCS each year.

(3) Number of teams in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year.
-- (Adjustments to account for differences in the number of members of each conference.)


A conference will become the 7th automatic qualifier if:
-- It finishes among the top six conferences in both No. 1 and No. 2
-- And if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 50 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.

Conference will be eligible to apply to the Presidential Oversight Committee for an exemption if:
-- It finishes among the top six in both No. 1 and No. 2
-- And if its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3

-- OR, If it finishes among the top seven in either No. 1 or No. 2 and among the top five in the other
-- And its ranking in No. 3 is equal to or greater than 33.3 percent of the conference with the highest ranking in No. 3.

No. 3 above, the "Top 25 Performance Rating," will be calculated as follows:
-- Points will be awarded to the conferences based on their teams' finishes in the top 25 of the final BCS Standings each year.
-- Teams finishing 1-6: 4 points for each team
-- Teams finishing 7-12: 3 points for each team
-- Teams finishing 13-18: 2 points for each team
-- Teams finishing 19-25: 1 point for each team

Point totals will be adjusted to account for the size of the conference, as follows:
-- 12 or more members | no adjustment
-- 10 or 11 members | points increased by 12.5 percent
-- 9 or fewer members | points increased by 25 percent

 

[HUT-Frog]

I tried to find the final 2010 regular season (pre bowl game) rankings for the six BCS computer polls -- Sagarin, Anderson & Hester, Colley Matrix, Jeff Billingsley, Wolfe and Massey.

Only two -- A&H and Colley -- had those full rankings listed on their websites. (If you know where I can find the other four, please message me.)

So, with two of the six, I tried to see what the results were. (Each computer ranking is going to be different in fine details; but, I think you can assume that they are going to be largely similar, in that no team is going to be ranked Top 20 in one poll and be below 50 in the others.)

 

[HUT-Frog]

Making the changes to reflect the conference movement that has been announced (all effective for that Dec. 4 deadline, even if they aren't actually playing in that conference yet), I compiled average conference rankings.

KEY: School (number of teams) -- Average 2010 final regular season ranking -- Average position in rankings

ANDERSON & HESTER
SEC (13) -- .631 -- (35.00)
Big XII (9) -- .623 -- (34.78)
Pac 12 (12) -- .584 -- (43.42)
Big Ten (12) -- .511 -- (37.33)
Big East (7) -- .528 -- (57.14)
ACC (14) -- .524 -- (56.07)
MWC (10) -- .508 -- (59.80)
C-USA (12) -- .433 -- (78.17)
WAC (5) -- .377 -- (90.60)
MAC (13*) -- .359 -- (92.23)
Sun Belt (9) -- .302 -- (104.89)

COLLEY MATRIX
Big XII (9) -- .659 -- (38.56)
SEC (13) -- .659 -- (39.85)
Big Ten (12) -- .631 -- (42.42)
Pac 12 (12) -- .611 -- (46.17)
ACC (14) -- .552 -- (54.29)
Big East (7) -- .550 -- (56.71)
MWC (10) -- .535 -- (57.00)
C-USA (12) -- .431 -- (74.42)
MAC (13*) -- .339 -- (88.15)
WAC (5) -- .339 -- (90.20)
Sun Belt (9) -- .269 -- (102.00)

Note: A couple of times one average rating was superior, but the average position was inferior to another conferece. This can occur because there can be wide variances in power rating number between positions, but the change between positions itself is constant (1).

 

[HUT-Frog]

I wanted to see how the remaining seven Big East schools broke down, and, whether mentioned candidates for expansion would increase the overall rating of the Big East, or detract from it.

Keep in mind that these are only 2010 regular season numbers -- the first year of a four-year cycle through 2013. These can be distorted, good or bad. For instance, Houston had a horrible year after Keenum was hurt. Still, these are the hard numbers that the BCS says it will use. So, they are what they are.


ANDERSON & HESTER

Big East -- TCU (.797, #3); West Virginia (.624, #24); Connecticut (.549, #50); South Florida (.501, #65); Louisville (.446, #79); Cincinnati (.420, #83); Rutgers (.360, #96).

Departed -- Pittsburgh (.541, #53); Syracuse (.484, #69).

Positives -- Boise State (.743), Navy (.580), Central Florida (.576), Air Force (.572), Northern Illinois (.539), Southern Miss (.538).

Negatives -- BYU (.510), Toledo (.502), SMU (.498), East Carolina (.495), Temple (.478), Ohio (.460), Army (.434), Marshall (.410), Houston (.407), Memphis (.231).


COLLEY MATRIX

Big East -- TCU (.892561, #4); West Virginia (.690266, #23); Connecticut (.579535, #49); South Florida (.516831, #66); Louisville (.444227, #75); Cincinnati (.402172, #83); Rutgers (.324533, #97).

Departed -- Pittsburgh (.572411, #51); Syracuse (.512252, #67).

Positives -- Boise State (.859), Navy (.653), Air Force (.645), Central Florida (.640), Northern Illinois (.597), Southern Miss (.580), Toledo (.556).

Negatives -- BYU (.538), SMU (.528), Temple (.522), East Carolina (.521), Army (.422), Marshall (.402), Houston (.388), Memphis (.130).

 

[HUT-Frog]

Lest we forget that we're currently in the Mountain West, the nearest challenger to the Big East for an AQ slot, here's the breakdown on the MWC:

Anderson & Hester -- Boise State (.743, #13); Nevada (.709, #17); Hawaii (.632, #23); Fresno State (.578, #39); Air Force (.572, #43); San Diego State (.553, #49); Colorado State (.360, #97); Wyoming (.343, #101); Nevada-Las Vegas (.333, #104); New Mexico (.256, #112).

Colley Matrix -- Boise State (.569369, #10); Nevada (.808056, #15); Hawaii (.699408, #22); Air Force (.645358, #30); Fresno State (.617098, #40); San Diego State (.610853, #42); Colorado State (.327350, #95); Wyoming (.311613, #100); Nevada-Las Vegas (.284687, #104); New Mexico (.182464, #112).

 

[HUT-Frog]

And FINALLY, I applied different scenarios (rumored changes) to the various conferences. I went through Big East plausibilities first, then MWC, and ended with what I thought was the least likely to happen -- TCU be invited as the 10th and only team to the Big XII.

-- Actual conferences as they are appear in bold
-- Conditional changes appear in italic
-- I wasn't sure how to handle UTSA and Texas State to the WAC, UMass to the MAC, or South Alabama to the Sun Belt. Only A&H provided FCS (I-AA) rankings; I have no idea how the BCS will handle a completely new program like UTSA.

ANDERSON & HESTER

-- Big XII add TCU (10) -- .640 -- (31.60)
SEC (13) -- .631 -- (35.00)
Big XII (9) -- .623 -- (34.78)
Big Ten (12) -- .616 -- (37.43)
-- Big XII add BYU (10) -- .611 -- (37.50)
-- Big XII add Louisville (10) -- .605 -- (39.20)
-- Big XII add BYU, Louisville, W.V. (12) -- .599 -- (39.83)
Pac 12 (12) -- .584 -- (43.42)
-- BE add Boise State (8) -- .555 -- (51.63)
-- BE w/o Louisville (6) -- .542 -- (53.50)
-- BE add Navy, AFA (9) -- .539 -- (53.44)
-- MWC with TCU (11) -- .534 -- (54.64)
Big East (7) -- .528 -- (57.14)
-- BE w/o Louisville, W.V. (5) -- .525 -- (59.40)
ACC (14) -- .524 -- (56.07)
-- BE w/o W.V. (6) -- .512 -- (62.67)
MWC (10) -- .508 -- (59.80)
-- MWC w/o AFA (9) -- .501 -- (61.67)
-- BE w/o TCU (6) -- .483 -- (66.17)
-- MWC w/o AFA, BSU (8) -- .471 -- (67.75)
C-USA (12) -- .433 -- (78.17)
WAC (5) -- .377 -- (90.60)
MAC (13*) -- .359 -- (92.23)
Sun Belt (9) -- .302 -- (104.89)



COLLEY MATRIX

-- Big XII add TCU (10) -- .682 -- (35.10)
Big XII (9) -- .659 -- (38.56)
SEC (13) -- .659 -- (39.85)
-- Big XII add BYU (10) -- .647 -- (40.50)
-- Big XII add Louisville (10) -- .638 -- (42.20)
-- Big XII add BYU, Louisville, W.V. (12) -- .634 -- (41.92)
Big Ten (12) -- .631 -- (42.42)
Pac 12 (12) -- .611 -- (46.17)
-- BE add Boise State (8) -- .589 -- (50.88)
-- BE add Navy, AFA (9) -- .572 -- (50.56)
-- BE w/o Louisville (6) -- .568 -- (53.67)
-- MWC with TCU (11) -- .567 -- (52.18)
ACC (14) -- .552 -- (54.29)
Big East (7) -- .550 -- (56.71)
-- BE w/o Louisville, W.V. (5) -- .543 -- (59.80)
MWC (10) -- .535 -- (57.00)
-- BE w/o W.V. (6) -- .527 -- (62.33)
-- MWC w/o AFA (9) -- .522 -- (60.00)
-- BE w/o TCU (6) -- .493 -- (65.50)
-- MWC w/o AFA, BSU (8) -- .480 -- (66.25)
C-USA (12) -- .431 -- (74.42)
MAC (13*) -- .339 -- (88.15)
WAC (5) -- .339 -- (90.20)
Sun Belt (9) -- .269 -- (102.00)

 

[Endless Purple]

nice work

 

[HUT-Frog]

If the reports are true that AFA and Navy are on board, the BE actually make a nice little jump -- and took a nip out of its nearest competitor, the MWC.

The kill shot would be getting Boise State to partner up with AFA.

 

[WVUFan]

True but it all comes down to TV moneys too

 

[cdsfrog]

True but it all comes down to TV moneys too

that would eliminate the MWC for sure

 

[RaiderHater]

I know this is a "what if" question.

But if Utah, BYU and TCU stayed in the MWC with Boise State. From looking at the criteria is there any possible way the BCS would have discluded the MWC from being an AQ conference?

4 BCS births in 3 years (Utah in 08, TCU and Boise St. in 09, and TCU in 10). All four of those teams are almost always in the top 25 (excluding BYU last year), and Air Force is usually a solid 3 or 4 loss team. I guess the computer ranking of the bottom of the MWC would be bad.