TCU to the SEC has been one of my favorite topics. I will fully admit that its probably a stretch, particularly in the short run. I also know that TCU would probably not be first choice. But the more I look at, trying not wear my purple colored glasses, it could be that TCU is first of the best available schools. If you are objective, and open minded, and look at what drives this conference shuffling speculation, and get past stereotypes and 70s era thinking, then you can begin to see that its not as far fetched, as say Baylor winning a bowl game. Here are the points in semi condensed form. You have to make some assumptions obviously, but thats all anyone is doing in a guessing game, and I think these assumptions are logical, even though they are certainly not set in stone.
1. The SEC decides to expand. They could very well stay put and not change a thing. If they are comfortable with 12 teams forever, then thats the end of the discussion. The SEC has seen some changes since forming 77 years ago. They dropped Sewanee in '41, Georgia Tech in '64, and Tulane in '66. They then added Arkansas and South Carolina in 1992. This is arguably more changes, particularly in recent years, than the Pac 10 or the Big 10 has ever seen. If the rumors are true about the Big 10 going to 16 teams, and 16 team mega conferences are going to be the new reality going forward, then its likely the SEC would follow suit, to avoid jeopardizing their status as the premier conference. If mega conferences is a pipe dream, then that means TCU to the SEC is pipedream. It would require the SEC adding at least two, but more likely four teams to make TCU a possibility.
2. The SEC would love to be in the great state of Texas. This one is not really an assumption. Everybody would love be tied to the Lone Star State, especially in football. This is why the SEC had talks with A&M about joining. The whole media market thing is a big part of it, but another huge aspect is for recruiting. The SEC gets some Texas players now, but would love to have a chance at increasing their exposure. Its good for business on alot of levels. People who talk about the SEC taking ACC schools like Florida St, Clemson, Miami, etc dont really get this point. The SEC would much rather go west, to the land of milk and honey, than go east into territory they already dominate, and grab schools that current SEC members have political baggage with (i.e. Florida-Miami). Again, the point about a Texas school being ideal for potential SEC expansion, is as close to a fact as we get here.
3. Current Big 12 schools in and around Texas are not willing, ready, or able to move. I could be wrong here, but this one looks logical as well. Obviously UT is not going to join the SEC. If A&M was going to join the SEC, then why wouldnt they have done it already? Because they need the relationship with UT. No game A&M could ever play would match the TV draw ($) of the A&M-UT game on Thanksgiving day. Also, UT will do everything within its considerable power to prevent the aggies from leaving them. Oklahoma sounds logical, but if they go to the SEC then they are basically LEAVING the state of Texas. OU is 99% a Texas team, and relies heavily on TV markets and recruits from Texas. Would they follow the same path as Arkansas? The dynamics for OU would be almost identical as they were with Arkansas when they left. OU is probably smart enough (questionable) to see that the SEC would be a mistake for them, if it cut their ties to state of Texas. Texas Tech being in Lubbock severely limits their potential. So whos left for the SEC to expand into Texas, if UT, A&M, or OU are not an option? The one wild card here is UT going independent or something like that. In that scenario, A&M and even OU would be free to go and still keep their games with UT, and ties to Texas recruiting and TV markets. But as long as Bevo wants a conference, you can bet it will include A&M and OU, for the simple fact that its a mutually beneficial arrangement.
4. The SEC wants a winner. Someone else already made this point, but its worth repeating. The SEC knows what makes their brand so strong is quality matchups. The reason their TV deal is so sweet, is because people around the country want to watch good matchups. If it was only about large fan/alumni bases, then the Big 10 schools would have much bigger TV contracts. But who outside of Big 10 country gives a flip about Michigan State vs Illinois? Its about compelling matchups with quality teams. Thats what makes TV money. Geography plays apart, and geography is also a positive for TCU. Also, the SEC is serious about baseball, particularly in the West. You can bet that the Frogs CWS run this year in baseball didnt go unnoticed in SEC country.
When you take these factors into consideration, then an SEC invite for TCU is not out of the question. I defy anyone to name 4 schools that would be a better fit, or add more value than TCU. I am sure plenty of people think they can name 20 schools that would be ahead of us, but doing so only exposes a failure to fully grasp the points laid out here. Fears about a move to the SEC being a bad move for TCU are absurd. To say that TCU would become Vanderbilt is not only ridiculous, its insulting. TCU can compete very well in any conference, and the benefits of improved membership far outweigh any struggles that might come from stiffer competition. Going 9-3 in the SEC is better than going 12-0 in the MWC.
It wouldnt be shocking if it doesnt happen, and a conference like the Big East is clearly much more probable, particularly in the short run. It becomes especially far fetched if mega conferences never happen, or if Bevo goes indie or alters the landscape in some other unforseen way. CDC made a great point in this interview, about conference shifts being a near constant fact for decades now. So, this sort of thing is nothing new and only going to increase in years to come. The good news for TCU, is that TCU Athletics are negotiating from a position of desirable strength and quality with whoever the conversation is with. The SEC would be really sweet, but so long as the Frogs are in an improved position with respect to national credibility, TV revenue, and exposure, when the music stops on this conference musical chairs game, then it doesnt really matter. There is good reason to believe that, at least will happen.
h34r:
