• The KillerFrogs

Championship Weekend & CFP Predictions

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Wexahu

Full Member
TCUdirtbag said:
#15 Arizona
#5 Oregon (then #8)
USC (then #24)
#20 Oregon State (then #12)
Utah (then #13)
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Color me not all that impressed. I'm still waiting for someone to give me those big OOC wins the PAC got this year that we should all be so impressed with, and why we should think that league was pretty strong this year. Here's each team's marquee OOC game(s).....

Oregon barely beat 6-6 Texas Tech (by 8)
Washington beat 4-8 Michigan State
Arizona beat 5-7 Mississippi State (by 7)
Oregon State beat 4-8 San Diego State
Utah beat 5-7 Florida
USC lost to ND by 28 points
UCLA beat 4-8 SDSU
Cal lost to Auburn
ASU lost to Okie State
Stanford lost to ND by 33
Washington State beat 7-5 Wisconsin
Colorado beat 5-7 TCU and 5-7 Nebraska
 
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W

Wexahu

Full Member
TCUdirtbag said:
Pac-12 in all P5 OOC games:
W - Utah v. Florida
W - Colorado @ TCU
W - Colorado v. Nebraska
W - Utah @ Baylor
W - Oregon @ Texas Tech
W - Washington St v. Wisconsin
L - Arizona @ Mississippi St
L - Arizona St v. Oklahoma St
L - Cal v. Auburn
W - Washington @ Michigan St
L - USC @ Notre Dame
L - Stanford v. Notre Dame

Mixed bag, IMO. The surprise is that USC sucked.
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Beat me to it. It really is not impressive at all. The most impressive wins might be Colorado over TCU and WSU over WIsconsin, maybe Utah over what was a pretty bad Florida team.
 
LisaLT

LisaLT

Active Member
Wexahu said:
They are not going to take two teams from what is the 4th best league (or if you really want to argue it, the 3rd best league). They just aren't.

Besides, UT will be a 12-1 conference champion with one last second loss to the #12 team. AND they will have BY FAR the best OOC win than any of the teams they will be compared to. You say, well, UT didn't look very good and struggled to beat Houston, TCU and K-State. Well, Washington hasn't won a game by more than 10 points since September, and that includes games against Stanford, Arizona State, and Washington State, three bad teams. PF/PA is in UTs favor 421/207 to 456/276, and UT played a more difficult schedule. UT is ahead of Washington in the computer rankings today, even before the supposed Washington loss, Texas win scenario.

I mean, give me a freaking break here. If it was TCU in UT's position the pivot and 180 degree change in the arguments would be comical. I'm not even going to get into UT's case against OSU, a possible 1-loss Michigan, a possible 1-loss Georgia etc. because your bias against UT is so obvious to see that it's not worth it.
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Actually no. I’m just looking at past CFPs and the current list of contenders. The fact that UT needs help to get in is a fact. IF the top 4 win out it’s no discussion. If Oregon wins and the other 3 undefeated win, Oregon would get in over UT even if they beat OSU. TCU had beaten KSU during the regular season and lost on a controversial play at the end. We had some wiggle room which I don’t see Texas having. They need help. Stop being an idiot and assuming you know best all the time. You don’t. This isn’t about whether I like or dislike the horns. Opinions are allowed to be different and still have merit. Get over yourself.
 
TooColdU

TooColdU

Active Member
Oregon has a common opponent with UT, Texas Tech, and UT clearly wins that.

Only chance PAC-12 gets in is if Washington wins or Oregon wins and Florida St. loses.

Or, of course, if Oklahoma St wins.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
LisaLT said:
Actually no. I’m just looking at past CFPs and the current list of contenders. The fact that UT needs help to get in is a fact. IF the top 4 win out it’s no discussion. If Oregon wins and the other 3 undefeated win, Oregon would get in over UT even if they beat OSU. TCU had beaten KSU during the regular season and lost on a controversial play at the end. We had some wiggle room which I don’t see Texas having. They need help. Stop being an idiot and assuming you know best all the time. You don’t. This isn’t about whether I like or dislike the horns. Opinions are allowed to be different and still have merit. Get over yourself.
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I agree on the bolded part, although I don't really understand Oregon's no-doubt-about-it position above Texas. Reminds me a little bit of 2014 when it was just accepted and assumed that Oregon was going to finish higher than Ohio State, TCU, Baylor, etc. It's like no one really looked at their resume all that hard, it was just a given. I'm OK with Oregon staying ahead of UT but if it were the other way around I wouldn't have a huge issue with it.

So you're right, Texas needs help. I know that. What you are saying is that if Washington loses and Texas wins, you think there's still an argument to be made for Washington to stay ahead of Texas. And Ohio State. And I think that's ridiculous. I don't know best all the time, but I guarantee you that UT will be ahead of both Washington and Ohio State in the event UT wins and Washington loses. Willing to bet anyone and give them 10x odds. So I'm pretty sure I'm right this time.

edit: I guess there is a WAY outside chance that OSU stays ahead of UT but only if those two teams are #5-6 in the last ranking, no way OSU makes the CFP in at #4 ahead of UT.
 
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AroundWorldFrog

AroundWorldFrog

Full Member
TooColdU said:
Oregon has a common opponent with UT, Texas Tech, and UT clearly wins that.

Only chance PAC-12 gets in is if Washington wins or Oregon wins and Florida St. loses.

Or, of course, if Oklahoma St wins.
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Yea, playing someone the 2nd week of the season vs the last game? meh Apples and oranges imo. You can do transitive gymnastics all day.
 
froginmn

froginmn

Full Member
Wexahu said:
Color me not all that impressed. I'm still waiting for someone to give me those big OOC wins the PAC got this year that we should all be so impressed with, and why we should think that league was pretty strong this year. Here's each team's marquee OOC game(s).....

Oregon barely beat 6-6 Texas Tech (by 8)
Washington beat 4-8 Michigan State
Arizona beat 5-7 Mississippi State (by 7)
Oregon State beat 4-8 San Diego State
Utah beat 5-7 Florida
USC lost to ND by 28 points
UCLA beat 4-8 SDSU
Cal lost to Auburn
ASU lost to Okie State
Stanford lost to ND by 33
Washington State beat 7-5 Wisconsin
Colorado beat 5-7 TCU and 5-7 Nebraska
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OK but now do the other conferences. The Big 10's biggest win is... Iowa 20-13 over ISU? Or maybe PSU big over WVU is more impressive?

The SEC has Kentucky over Louisville and Missou over K State.

UT Bama by 10 and FSU over LSU by 21 are probably the two only big wins by anyone.

Conferences need to schedule more games between each other...
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
froginmn said:
OK but now do the other conferences. The Big 10's biggest win is... Iowa 20-13 over ISU? Or maybe PSU big over WVU is more impressive?

The SEC has Kentucky over Louisville and Missou over K State.

UT Bama by 10 and FSU over LSU by 21 are probably the two only big wins by anyone.

Conferences need to schedule more games between each other...
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I agree. The OOC schedules suck for the most part and it does make it a lot harder than it should be to "rank" conferences. Step 1 would be getting rid of the games against minor league (FCS) teams.

I almost hate to bring it up, but Ohio State won at Notre Dame, that's probably the Big 10's best OOC win, and it's surely better than any PAC win. ND blew out the two PAC teams they faced, USC and Stanford. Heck, the ACC probably has better OOC wins than the PAC.

Anyway, there is no way if Washington loses they remain in the Top 4 unless some truly amazing things happen in other games. And I'll say it again, replace UT with TCU in this scenario, there is no way anyone on here is making sincere arguments as to why a 1-loss Washington, Ohio State, or Alabama should be ranked ahead of TCU.
 
LisaLT

LisaLT

Active Member
Wexahu said:
I agree on the bolded part, although I don't really understand Oregon's no-doubt-about-it position above Texas. Reminds me a little bit of 2014 when it was just accepted and assumed that Oregon was going to finish higher than Ohio State, TCU, Baylor, etc. It's like no one really looked at their resume all that hard, it was just a given. I'm OK with Oregon staying ahead of UT but if it were the other way around I wouldn't have a huge issue with it.

So you're right, Texas needs help. I know that. What you are saying is that if Washington loses and Texas wins, you think there's still an argument to be made for Washington to stay ahead of Texas. And Ohio State. And I think that's ridiculous. I don't know best all the time, but I guarantee you that UT will be ahead of both Washington and Ohio State in the event UT wins and Washington loses. Willing to bet anyone and give them 10x odds. So I'm pretty sure I'm right this time.

edit: I guess there is a WAY outside chance that OSU stays ahead of UT but only if those two teams are #5-6 in the last ranking, no way OSU makes the CFP in at #4 ahead of UT.
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Oregon has looked sharp the last 5 games. Texas less so. If Alabama loses to Georgia, they may not be ranked number 7 anymore, so perhaps that win doesn't have the luster it once did. Keep in mind beating undefeated Washington is different than beating a 3 loss Okie State team in the championship game, which is why I think Oregon gets the nod. Texas could still make the playoffs if FSU loses, that is true, especially if they rank them ahead of Ohio State.
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
LisaLT said:
Oregon has looked sharp the last 5 games. Texas less so. If Alabama loses to Georgia, they may not be ranked number 7 anymore, so perhaps that win doesn't have the luster it once did. Keep in mind beating undefeated Washington is different than beating a 3 loss Okie State team in the championship game, which is why I think Oregon gets the nod. Texas could still make the playoffs if FSU loses, that is true, especially if they rank them ahead of Ohio State.
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If Oregon wins they will stay ahead of Texas. Washington and Ohio Stare and the loser of the SEC champ game will not.
 
froginmn

froginmn

Full Member
This game is entertaining; not that long since this was more or less where we lived (yes, a better conference with better opponents for much of our wilderness years).
 
froginmn

froginmn

Full Member
Unconventional picks, maybe.

Championship Games:
Bama over Georgia, OT
Michigan over Iowa
Washington over Oregon
FSU over Louisville
Texas over Oklahoma State, close

CFP Selections:
#1 Michigan vs. #4 FSU
#2 Washington vs. #3 Bama
 
hometown frog

hometown frog

Active Member
For you DFW area DirecTV folks, be aware that WFAA is currently blacked out. So you’ll have to watch over the air or thru ESPN+ (or some other streaming service)
 

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