Big East expansion . . . less is more

[Army Frog Fan]

I wouldn't be surprised, assuming the BE is seriously considering Army and Navy, if they are offered a reduced share of the pie. That would offset the concerns of some members, still increase the revenue of Army and Navy, and allow the BE to hold a conference championship game.

 

[mtmedlin]

Heres the thing, its not like Army and Navy will cost us much. They already have a TV deal that runs for another 6 years, which means we cant show or profit from those games. Lets say that the BE gets $15 million for each football team. A/N are both football only and would not get the $5 to $6 million that is the basketball portion. Then take out that we cant show any of their home games. Thats another 50% off their pay. So were down to adding a team for about $5 million. Assuming that they can give us 6 road games that equals out to about $800K per game, which is about market price for a "rent a win" game. Plus, adding Army, Navy and Nova is something that can actually get the votes and be accomplished...Houston, UCF, or ECU is going to be very hard to get bball teams to go for.

The only value I would see is from a network point of view and slighlty more so from a BE championship game. "IF" the BE forms a network then they both help us get onto the basic cable package in New York and Maryland/DC. If they are the tipping point that makes that happen, then they are worth it. Both also help in Philly (large following for A/N in Philly) add in Nova and we probably get onto basic there also (Plus Notre Dame helps in all three markets...plus BE Basktball is really popular in all three) New York, New Jersey, Baltimore/DC and Philly in our BEN on basic cable would make some BANK. Add in Pittsburg (Pitt might not be enough but theres a ton of WV alumni in that area) Chicago (Depaul helps a little but Marquette and ND are very popular there too), Milwaukee, Tampa (yes, USF is enough to get us on in Tampa...plus, again a ton of ND alumni here...might even be enough to get into Orlando) and the Forthworth/Dallas market. Thats right there my friends is a serious list of DMAs for a network. I couldnt care less about competitiveness or prestige. The money we get will take the teams we have and allow them to finally compete at a higher level. It will also give us the money to retain our coaches, which has honestly been the biggest issue for the BE.

(just as an aside, in order for the BE to get to $15 million per football team, it is going to take a contract in the $175 to $185 million range and that is based off of what we have now with no expansion.. With ESPN shooting a figure of $130 million, its kindof a stretch to add another $45 to $55 million...but add in Army and Navy at only a cost of $5 million a piece and moving Nova up and you now need about $$195 to $200 million. Sounds crazy but figure in that a championship game is typically worth about $20 million. The Pac12, Big 10 and even ACC is in that area or higher. So the cost of adding all three teams is covered by the championship game but the extra value for the inventory of games and inclusion of markets to the network are all gravy. Army and Navys value goes up when were able to use their historical games on the network. Within this scenario, the football teams would get $15 million, but then you would add in at least $2 to $3 million per team in network revenue. That moves us into the $17 million plus range, which makes us solidly in the upper level and leaves the ACC behind)

 

[asleep003]

It's not so much how Army and Navy helps us ... it's more how we help them...
The academies have no real shot at any BCS Bowl in any scenario....
Their existing deals can't be improved upon in the BE.
And their chances of a second teir or possibly any Bowl would be deminished.

So where or how do you recruit them... with out their existing contract, they are
a plus for us, yet the Big East is no plus for them... except for FB stature only.
Cheers !

 

[mtmedlin]

We pay them...plain and simple. They have sold their 6 home games but have 6 more that we may be willing to take. $5 million for them to be a permanent bodybag in our conference isnt something they can afford to walk away from. Single handidly we would be paying them more then they make on their two TV contracts. Also, Army's contract is up in 2014, which is the same year that Nova would be able to join. At that point, they can start to earn even more cash.
Navy on the other hand isnt fully available until 2018, which is also the date that the Army/Navy game would no longer be under contract and could be added to our inventory. Plus, if their inventory of historical games is put on our network and possibly a licensing agreement to air some of their other content, they could earn BEN monies.
Lastly, they get to recruit with the AQ title and would have sellout crowds along with the ability to qualify for better bowl games. Either one would be a slam dunk to go to the Pinstripe Bowl. The majority of the conference is close enough to their stadiums that they can count on at least 4 sellouts per year. (Rutgers, Uconn, Cuse, Pitt, WV, Army/Navy and Nova...also ND) When a home game sellout is worth $1 to $1.5 million each, it is well worth it to them.
Navy and Army are averaging around 32K attendance. Navy can go up to 34K but there has been talk of an expansion...the only reason they havent is money. The BE pay will fix that. Army on the other hand has capacity of 40K. Going to the BE would raise their attendance considerably.

So you say how do we help them...Money, sellouts, better bowl tie ins and AQ. I think they would go for it.

 

[YCBJ Frog]

Also, Army's contract is up in 2014, which is the same year that Nova would be able to join.

Great, so let's revisit this then, rather than you speculating about the TV contracts about which you literally know nothing other than the amount of money and the duration.

Do you honestly think that there isn't some sort of termination clause in the contract anywhere for the teams if they join a conference? It would've been pretty unlikely, but don't you think they would've wanted an out if the Big 10 decided to go to 16 and wanted 5 teams from the Northeast (pre-Nebraska addition)? No television contract is set in stone, and almost every single conference contract has something about a change in membership in it and parameters for the magnitude of that change--and beyond that, more often than not the network is willing to tear up and renegotiate the contract if it would add to the profitability of the conference. Likewise, something tells me that indies have a similar "conference change" clause, especially in an environment where it's entirely possible that with any off-season all Div-1 schools could be jockeying for membership in 4 16-team conferences, or be left out of the whole thing. Do you really think that they would sign a contract that didn't have an out for conference membership in that environment? Really? REALLY?

The chances of any of this crap happening are about as much as you having a four way with Jessica Alba, Alyssa Miller, and Queen Elizabeth II. So as I said, let's table this crap for a few years until Army, Navy, and Villanova don't join us--as if we would want to seal up our membership at 12 with the likes of them anyway!

 

[Endless Purple]

Even if adding Army, Navy and Nova to the conference increased the TV package per team, it won't be by 5-10 mil. At the most it might increase the contract by 1-2 mil/school. As a fan, it isn't worth it to lose a OOC game and stick that many more of our games in the Northeast.

It does not improve reputation of the conference.
Likely 9 games,it makes it harder to have openings for name opponents due to less flexibility.
Chance of a rematch in the conference championship game. Lame.
Does not better define a champion than a full round robin.


There is more to college football than just trying to make a few dollars more.

 

[mtmedlin]

Heres the thing...some people like talking about the possibilities and what is being reported...your not one. So feel free to not participate. Forums are voluntary.

Second, I am not the one reporting Army and Navy to the BE, so why are you being so condescending about it? The talk was about why it might happened, and I put out a reason. Theres really not any reason to be insulting or rude. The truth is that even though I am not a huge fan of this plan, it makes alot more sense then anything else I have heard.

As far as the numbers I used, its for a comparison and away to measure. Even the greatest engineers on earth use WAGs and SWAGs (Wild [Craig James] Guess, Super Wild [Craig James] Guess...Leanerd that from my brother when he worked for Nasa and Lockheed Martin) We need a starting point and then details fill in the rest. $15 million is a goal, whether or not its attainable is a different story.

TCU is new to the BE, but after a while you will learn the politics of your new conference. This plan is one of the very few that would have a chance of coming through. I like Houston and I know many of you do not, but the chances of the BBall teams approving them is very low, even though I am just about certain they would have at least 6 football votes. Nova is going to move up, its just a matter of time. There was alot more going on with that then meets the eye.
Even if Army and Navy can get out of their TV contract, you have to ask yourself why would we want them to. It might be better to allow them to leave things the way they are and bring them in the way that I mentioned. Much cheaper for the BE, helps them out with additional cash, we get the additional games, and were alowed to have a profitable championship game. If the numbers are good, then we work out a contract for their home games.
You talked about scheduling and all that other stuff...I never said anything about a 9 conference game schedule. USF just scheduled more games for 2012 and 2013. Makes me pretty certain that were not going to 9 games until at least 2014. I hope not but again, pretty certain thats the direction its going to go.

 

[mtmedlin]

Even if adding Army, Navy and Nova to the conference increased the TV package per team, it won't be by 5-10 mil. At the most it might increase the contract by 1-2 mil/school. As a fan, it isn't worth it to lose a OOC game and stick that many more of our games in the Northeast.

It does not improve reputation of the conference.
Likely 9 games,it makes it harder to have openings for name opponents due to less flexibility.
Chance of a rematch in the conference championship game. Lame.
Does not better define a champion than a full round robin.


There is more to college football than just trying to make a few dollars more.

$1 -$2 million per school would be just fine. If were at $10 - $11 million per team right now (per the ESPN bid) then $11 to $13 would at least put us in the ACC territory...but I think well get more.

and I will make a change to what you said..."There SHOULD be more to college football then just trying to make a few dollars more". I dont mean to be harsh but coming from a school that can easily raise $146 million in cash, it just proves that TCU is culturally alot different then the majority of schools in the BE. A few extra million a year is the difference in most of us being able to pay our coaches enough cash so that they dont jump at every opening. It gives us the money to recruit well beyond our regular geographic border. It allows us to finance additional improvements.
TCU is different. When you have financial resources you can survive, even if you were still in the lower paying MWC, you can afford all those things and keep up a spending pace equal to the bigger teams. Most of the BE cant and we want the money. TCU wasnt here when the BE was raided and it looked like it was going to crumble. TCU wasnt here when on a couple occasions it looked like the B10 was going to end our conference. So yes, were a bit of whores right now. We just want whomever will give us the largest paycheck. We need it to survivive. It sucks. I liked football when it had tradition, rivalries and history but we all know shortly after the SWC fell apart that loyalty and tradition didnt mean as much as forming powerful alliances.
Football has become survivor and for now, the BE is fighting to be #5 instead of #6. If we get the big contract, then it means when superconferences are formed that it will be the ACC left out in the cold and the BE will be the ones doing the raiding. 2015 is the date and the BE needs to be prepared, at whatever cost.

 

[HG73]

Army and Navy are useful and have TV value as evidenced by their TV contracts. They wouldn't be good additions to the conference, but probably would have some value as participants in a scheduling arrangement as part of the TV contract. Like Notre Dame. The networks know their value and if their addition to the TV contract increased the present BE members share of TV money, then this will get done. It helps with their scheduling and provides the BE members with an additional quality non-conference game in addition to more money for everyone.

Just my opinion, but Notre Dame needs to be in the new TV deal with a guaranteed number of games with BE members. Otherwise they need to be shown the door. They take much more out of this conference than they bring. Except for this year their basketball has been mediocre but they still take that big check every year from TV and the tournament. I can understand their desire to remain independent in football, but if they are going to be members in the best basketball conference in the country and all the benefits therein, they need to throw a bone to the football members. Where else would ND go for their non-football sports? Nowhere.

 

[mtmedlin]

ND isnt any worse then Depaul, Seton Hall, Providence or even Marquette, yet they bring power, bargaining ability and play 3 BE games each year. There worth the money. They only get a non-football share. the rest of the money they get doesnt come from the BE.

 

[Texas Otto]

$1 -$2 million per school would be just fine. If were at $10 - $11 million per team right now (per the ESPN bid) then $11 to $13 would at least put us in the ACC territory...but I think well get more.

and I will make a change to what you said..."There SHOULD be more to college football then just trying to make a few dollars more". I dont mean to be harsh but coming from a school that can easily raise $146 million in cash, it just proves that TCU is culturally alot different then the majority of schools in the BE. A few extra million a year is the difference in most of us being able to pay our coaches enough cash so that they dont jump at every opening. It gives us the money to recruit well beyond our regular geographic border. It allows us to finance additional improvements.
TCU is different. When you have financial resources you can survive, even if you were still in the lower paying MWC, you can afford all those things and keep up a spending pace equal to the bigger teams. Most of the BE cant and we want the money. TCU wasnt here when the BE was raided and it looked like it was going to crumble. TCU wasnt here when on a couple occasions it looked like the B10 was going to end our conference. So yes, were a bit of whores right now. We just want whomever will give us the largest paycheck. We need it to survivive. It sucks. I liked football when it had tradition, rivalries and history but we all know shortly after the SWC fell apart that loyalty and tradition didnt mean as much as forming powerful alliances.
Football has become survivor and for now, the BE is fighting to be #5 instead of #6. If we get the big contract, then it means when superconferences are formed that it will be the ACC left out in the cold and the BE will be the ones doing the raiding. 2015 is the date and the BE needs to be prepared, at whatever cost.

Ahh I don't want to get on your case but USF wasn't here either when the BE was raided and everyone predicted its demise USF was in CUSA. Just sayin!

:tongue:

 

[Gunner]

At least they got the less is more. I still do not understand why they want 10 over 9 without there being a slam dunk #10.

I know the argument about more inventory. I just don't believe the chance to show TCU vs UCF every year is more valuable than an OOC game every other year with the likes of OU, LSU or any other team we try to schedule for a OOC home and home.

By only leaving us with 3 OOC games it is less likely they will be a big name. So for maybe (maybe) a little more TV revenue (because it wont be millions more per school with that extra team)you make it harder to schedule good OOC games and limit exposure to regional game match ups.

Also the the savings of not having to pay a body bag game for another home game doesn't add up all that much either from a fans perspective. That game would be a poor game to watch and only saves 600,000-900,000 every other year. That is assuming that the 4th OOC game given up is the body bag game and not a good OOC match up. They could keep the body bag game because they can't get a good OOC match up with another school so they don't save the payout anyway.

All this for the sake of putting teams on the schedule that fans don't want to watch and to create an unfair conference schedule every year.

Endless makes some good points. But Endless, we can't get anybody to play us. In the long run, it might be better to play more conference games so scheduling won't be such a struggle. At least you will be playing somebody in a game that counts. I'm in favor of bringing in somebody like Central Florida, who actually can play the game. Not Vily Nova..

 

[mtmedlin]

Ahh I don't want to get on your case but USF wasn't here either when the BE was raided and everyone predicted its demise USF was in CUSA. Just sayin!

:tongue:

Grew up in Indiana as a ND fan and IU also...been a BE fan for years before going to USF. One of the many reasons I loved that we got into this conference. My first wife was a Miami fan, so before USF was in, I still watched alot of BE games...but back in the day, it was mainly basketball and not as much for football.
1987 was a tough one for me. Love the BE but my family all graduated from IU. Ended up rooting for IU over Cuse.

 

[mtmedlin]

Endless makes some good points. But Endless, we can't get anybody to play us. In the long run, it might be better to play more conference games so scheduling won't be such a struggle. At least you will be playing somebody in a game that counts. I'm in favor of bringing in somebody like Central Florida, who actually can play the game. Not Vily Nova..

Do a little Google search for Erick Plancher before you root for UCF...they have 2 weeks left on that trial. Basically UCF killed this kid by running him into the ground, all the while they knew he had Sickle Cell.
Add that to the allegations about using a runner that are being investigated right now.
Then stack that on top of them being on probation for major recruiting violations until 2012.

I think we can find a cleaner progam.

 

[gatorfrog]

Do a little Google search for Erick Plancher before you root for UCF...they have 2 weeks left on that trial. Basically UCF killed this kid by running him into the ground, all the while they knew he had Sickle Cell.
Add that to the allegations about using a runner that are being investigated right now.
Then stack that on top of them being on probation for major recruiting violations until 2012.

I think we can find a cleaner progam.

Yes, we all know you hate UCF, possibly because they stole a name that would have made perfect sense for a school in Tampa. I think a lot of people also know that O'Leary is borderline at best. Still, perhaps you should be careful about casting the first stone. Maybe?

 

[YCBJ Frog]

Heres the thing...some people like talking about the possibilities and what is being reported...your not one. So feel free to not participate. Forums are voluntary.

Second, I am not the one reporting Army and Navy to the BE, so why are you being so condescending about it? The talk was about why it might happened, and I put out a reason. Theres really not any reason to be insulting or rude. The truth is that even though I am not a huge fan of this plan, it makes alot more sense then anything else I have heard.

As far as the numbers I used, its for a comparison and away to measure. Even the greatest engineers on earth use WAGs and SWAGs (Wild [Craig James] Guess, Super Wild [Craig James] Guess...Leanerd that from my brother when he worked for Nasa and Lockheed Martin) We need a starting point and then details fill in the rest. $15 million is a goal, whether or not its attainable is a different story.

TCU is new to the BE, but after a while you will learn the politics of your new conference. This plan is one of the very few that would have a chance of coming through. I like Houston and I know many of you do not, but the chances of the BBall teams approving them is very low, even though I am just about certain they would have at least 6 football votes. Nova is going to move up, its just a matter of time. There was alot more going on with that then meets the eye.
Even if Army and Navy can get out of their TV contract, you have to ask yourself why would we want them to. It might be better to allow them to leave things the way they are and bring them in the way that I mentioned. Much cheaper for the BE, helps them out with additional cash, we get the additional games, and were alowed to have a profitable championship game. If the numbers are good, then we work out a contract for their home games.
You talked about scheduling and all that other stuff...I never said anything about a 9 conference game schedule. USF just scheduled more games for 2012 and 2013. Makes me pretty certain that were not going to 9 games until at least 2014. I hope not but again, pretty certain thats the direction its going to go.

Not going to lie, I didn't read anything but the first paragraph, but I wanted to apologize. I'm losing my marbles and exploded on you for doing what I do a lot here (speculate about future football landscape). You were an easy target for frustration to come out at.

Lo siento, amigo.

 

[Endless Purple]

$1 -$2 million per school would be just fine. If were at $10 - $11 million per team right now (per the ESPN bid) then $11 to $13 would at least put us in the ACC territory...but I think well get more.

and I will make a change to what you said..."There SHOULD be more to college football then just trying to make a few dollars more". I dont mean to be harsh but coming from a school that can easily raise $146 million in cash, it just proves that TCU is culturally alot different then the majority of schools in the BE. A few extra million a year is the difference in most of us being able to pay our coaches enough cash so that they dont jump at every opening. It gives us the money to recruit well beyond our regular geographic border. It allows us to finance additional improvements.
TCU is different. When you have financial resources you can survive, even if you were still in the lower paying MWC, you can afford all those things and keep up a spending pace equal to the bigger teams. Most of the BE cant and we want the money. TCU wasnt here when the BE was raided and it looked like it was going to crumble. TCU wasnt here when on a couple occasions it looked like the B10 was going to end our conference. So yes, were a bit of whores right now. We just want whomever will give us the largest paycheck. We need it to survivive. It sucks. I liked football when it had tradition, rivalries and history but we all know shortly after the SWC fell apart that loyalty and tradition didnt mean as much as forming powerful alliances.
Football has become survivor and for now, the BE is fighting to be #5 instead of #6. If we get the big contract, then it means when superconferences are formed that it will be the ACC left out in the cold and the BE will be the ones doing the raiding. 2015 is the date and the BE needs to be prepared, at whatever cost.

Should is an important word. Too bad not enough people realize it buried behind all the dollar signs.

Yes to different schools that 1 million difference means different things. I am not running the schools so my position is based off a TCU fans view point. However the points I mentioned above can all go down to affect the dollars as well, and none of us outside the athletic departments accountants know all the factors. For example USF beats UConn during the regular season then gets a rematch with them during the championship game. You will end up with a lot of apathetic fans for that game which could hurt sales. Some of the ACC games were not exactly successes over the past couple years. Worse yet, you lose to UConn and get stuck in a lower bowl after having already beaten them. Lower bowls often costs schools more money which will eat into that $1 mil increase in TV revenue.

Everything we have are guesses. I don't value guesses more than good games I can watch. Also I think fan values should be considered for future match ups especially if you want to keep growing a fan base of season ticket holders. Will the possibility of a future Villanova match up help sell more TCU season tickets or a potential Ok St, Kansas, or Tech (if they quite backing out)?

 

[Endless Purple]

$1 -$2 million per school would be just fine. If were at $10 - $11 million per team right now (per the ESPN bid) then $11 to $13 would at least put us in the ACC territory...but I think well get more.

and I will make a change to what you said..."There SHOULD be more to college football then just trying to make a few dollars more". I dont mean to be harsh but coming from a school that can easily raise $146 million in cash, it just proves that TCU is culturally alot different then the majority of schools in the BE. A few extra million a year is the difference in most of us being able to pay our coaches enough cash so that they dont jump at every opening. It gives us the money to recruit well beyond our regular geographic border. It allows us to finance additional improvements.
TCU is different. When you have financial resources you can survive, even if you were still in the lower paying MWC, you can afford all those things and keep up a spending pace equal to the bigger teams. Most of the BE cant and we want the money. TCU wasnt here when the BE was raided and it looked like it was going to crumble. TCU wasnt here when on a couple occasions it looked like the B10 was going to end our conference. So yes, were a bit of whores right now. We just want whomever will give us the largest paycheck. We need it to survivive. It sucks. I liked football when it had tradition, rivalries and history but we all know shortly after the SWC fell apart that loyalty and tradition didnt mean as much as forming powerful alliances.
Football has become survivor and for now, the BE is fighting to be #5 instead of #6. If we get the big contract, then it means when superconferences are formed that it will be the ACC left out in the cold and the BE will be the ones doing the raiding. 2015 is the date and the BE needs to be prepared, at whatever cost.

Also wanted to add, that you are correct, TCU wasn't there when the BE was raided. We were there when he SWC was raided and did collapse. We were also there in CUSA when the BE raided them, and in the WAC when the MWC split off. Over that time, TCU has switched conferences and succeeded, but it wasn't just chasing the dollar. It was climbing the ladder and prestige. The dollar came along for the ride. That is how TCU help pay for itself, be bettering the schoolsathletic department, not just looking for larger TV contracts. The amount gained from TV increases was small compared to the amount gained in fan support.

edit addition: WAC to CUSA to MWC maybe earned 1-2 million a year in TV increases, so 10-20 million over the last decade vs 146 million for a new stadium paid for by pleased fans and supporters.