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Horned Frog Athletics
Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum
DEGENERATE GAMBLERS WEEK 2
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<blockquote data-quote="The Degenerate Frog" data-source="post: 2610420" data-attributes="member: 70608"><p>Based on S&P analytics vs Vegas line, here are the picks with the most value. Again, this has nothing to do with most likely to win, but rather the picks in which you will get most bang for your buck because the Vegas line is much different than true value. Goal is to net 10% profit on every dollar wagered. If I wager $1000 over the weekend, I expect to be up $100 on average as S&P predicted outcome is more than 10% difference vs Vegas line. I trust data more than I trust gamblers that shift the line in Vegas. Unfortunately, there are very few data points so far this season, so S&P is usually a slow start. Recommend using this to confirm/deny your own pick. Also add in your own home field advantage based on how important that is at a given location.</p><p></p><p>SPREADS WITH MOST VALUE IF PLAYED AT NEUTRAL SITE</p><p>1st - Mississippi State (-9) at Kansas State </p><p>2nd - Eastern Michigan (+17) at Purdue</p><p>3rd - UConn at Boise State (-31.5)</p><p>4th - Utah (-10.5) at Northern Illinois</p><p>5th - UL-Monroe at Southern Miss (-5.5)</p><p></p><p>OTHERS WITH MORE THAN 10% VARIABLE</p><p>New Mexico (+35) at Wisconsin</p><p>UCLA at Oklahoma (-30.5)</p><p>Ball State (+35.5) at Notre Dame</p><p>Michigan State at Arizona State (+7)</p><p>Colorado (+3.5) at Nebraska</p><p>Iowa State at Iowa (-4.5)</p><p>Virginia (+6.5) at Indiana</p><p>Arkansas (-14.5) at Colorado State</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="The Degenerate Frog, post: 2610420, member: 70608"] Based on S&P analytics vs Vegas line, here are the picks with the most value. Again, this has nothing to do with most likely to win, but rather the picks in which you will get most bang for your buck because the Vegas line is much different than true value. Goal is to net 10% profit on every dollar wagered. If I wager $1000 over the weekend, I expect to be up $100 on average as S&P predicted outcome is more than 10% difference vs Vegas line. I trust data more than I trust gamblers that shift the line in Vegas. Unfortunately, there are very few data points so far this season, so S&P is usually a slow start. Recommend using this to confirm/deny your own pick. Also add in your own home field advantage based on how important that is at a given location. SPREADS WITH MOST VALUE IF PLAYED AT NEUTRAL SITE 1st - Mississippi State (-9) at Kansas State 2nd - Eastern Michigan (+17) at Purdue 3rd - UConn at Boise State (-31.5) 4th - Utah (-10.5) at Northern Illinois 5th - UL-Monroe at Southern Miss (-5.5) OTHERS WITH MORE THAN 10% VARIABLE New Mexico (+35) at Wisconsin UCLA at Oklahoma (-30.5) Ball State (+35.5) at Notre Dame Michigan State at Arizona State (+7) Colorado (+3.5) at Nebraska Iowa State at Iowa (-4.5) Virginia (+6.5) at Indiana Arkansas (-14.5) at Colorado State [/QUOTE]
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DEGENERATE GAMBLERS WEEK 2
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