hfhmilkman
Active Member
A few comments on the definition of what an elite QB prospect means. Elite just means NFL potential and nothing else. Elite means the QB or any generic player has the physical skills to compete at the NFL level presuming they keep developing. What this means for a QB is they are of a certain, weight, and other physical measurables, have an observed throwing arm, and are reasonably accurate in 7-on-7 drills. Never mind actual HS games.
A blue blood program like Alabama or OSU may feel that an elite QB can be the difference maker when facing each other. Clemson beat OSU because Trevor Lawrence was a better QB than Justin Fields. And LSU beat Clemson because Joe Burrow was a better QB than Trevor Lawrence. These programs will cycle through multiple QB's to get it right. They have to because for every Trevor Lawrence there are a dozen Graham Mertz's.
Wisconsin is a great example of what happens when a program becomes obsessed with bringing in an "elite" QB. Wisconsin had been getting by with QB's of lesser physical talent but who made plays, who were still football players and leaders. Yet Wisconsin was not satisfied and ran Jake Coan out of town despite him doing a really nice job. The rest is history and a long multi-decade era in Madison is over. Much of the reason was the terrible failure of Mertz. He is an athlete first, football player second.
The moral of the story is elite QB's rarely turn out. If the pro's cant get it right evaluating college players, what chances college programs evaluating HS kids in camps? Better to try to find a football player who is being overlooked because he does not have NFL measurables. Its still the college game. That kind of player may be good enough to win one big game even if the NFL does not think he can win 17 at the next level. Get the leader. Get the football player. Elite prospects are usually fools gold. The blue bloods only get it right because they can attract and cycle through as many QB's until they get it right. A heady QB who just makes the play is worth way more than an athlete who has a 4.5 40, stands six foot four and can throw a 40 yard deep out route on a line in practice.
For the fun of it, I encourage folks to walk the last ten years of five star QB prospects at your favorite scouting site. Most of these elite NFL prospects are forgotten because they did not even approach expectations.
Another thought experiment. Would we agree there are no more than two dozen established NFL QB's? I define an established QB has someone who can command second contract secure as starter. Andy Dalton in my opinion is a typical example. He was a starting QB for 9 years as the #1 QB. Now he is winding his career down as one of those unsecure QB's. If we assume there are only 24 established QB's in the league at any time and the average career is eight seasons, the replacement rate would be 24/8 or 3 QB's being discovered every year. This begs the question, what is the chance that the elite QB that a college program chose, is going to be one of these 3 individuals?
A blue blood program like Alabama or OSU may feel that an elite QB can be the difference maker when facing each other. Clemson beat OSU because Trevor Lawrence was a better QB than Justin Fields. And LSU beat Clemson because Joe Burrow was a better QB than Trevor Lawrence. These programs will cycle through multiple QB's to get it right. They have to because for every Trevor Lawrence there are a dozen Graham Mertz's.
Wisconsin is a great example of what happens when a program becomes obsessed with bringing in an "elite" QB. Wisconsin had been getting by with QB's of lesser physical talent but who made plays, who were still football players and leaders. Yet Wisconsin was not satisfied and ran Jake Coan out of town despite him doing a really nice job. The rest is history and a long multi-decade era in Madison is over. Much of the reason was the terrible failure of Mertz. He is an athlete first, football player second.
The moral of the story is elite QB's rarely turn out. If the pro's cant get it right evaluating college players, what chances college programs evaluating HS kids in camps? Better to try to find a football player who is being overlooked because he does not have NFL measurables. Its still the college game. That kind of player may be good enough to win one big game even if the NFL does not think he can win 17 at the next level. Get the leader. Get the football player. Elite prospects are usually fools gold. The blue bloods only get it right because they can attract and cycle through as many QB's until they get it right. A heady QB who just makes the play is worth way more than an athlete who has a 4.5 40, stands six foot four and can throw a 40 yard deep out route on a line in practice.
For the fun of it, I encourage folks to walk the last ten years of five star QB prospects at your favorite scouting site. Most of these elite NFL prospects are forgotten because they did not even approach expectations.
Another thought experiment. Would we agree there are no more than two dozen established NFL QB's? I define an established QB has someone who can command second contract secure as starter. Andy Dalton in my opinion is a typical example. He was a starting QB for 9 years as the #1 QB. Now he is winding his career down as one of those unsecure QB's. If we assume there are only 24 established QB's in the league at any time and the average career is eight seasons, the replacement rate would be 24/8 or 3 QB's being discovered every year. This begs the question, what is the chance that the elite QB that a college program chose, is going to be one of these 3 individuals?
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