1. The KillerFrogs

Two Weeks Out: Call Your Shot

Discussion in 'The Pit' started by TCUdirtbag, Oct 21, 2020.

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Who wins the election?

Poll closed Nov 3, 2020.
  1. Trump

    12 vote(s)
    54.5%
  2. Biden

    10 vote(s)
    45.5%
  1. This poll is anonymous, Pit posters. The question is not asking who you're voting for -- it is asking who you think will win. It's open until election day and you can change your vote.
     
  2. Here's my prediction:
    [​IMG]

    I'm thinking this might actually be generous to Trump, as he could easily lose Florida. The only tossup for me is Ohio. I don't see him taking PA or WI at all. Maybe Michigan.
     
  3. bourbon, preferably from texas
     
    TxFrog1999 likes this.
  4. I want a 270-270 tie, just to see what happens.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. #6 TCUdirtbag, Oct 21, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2020
    FWIW that’s the current 538 projection but with FL, NC and ME-2 flipped to Trump (3 of the closest 4 in their model).

    I want to see how the debate goes tomorrow night before I lock in a map prediction. It seems some of Biden’s post-first debate/Trump Covid diagnosis 2-ish point growth might have faded a point or so. I don’t think Trump can change the overall fundamentals through a debate, but I think he can get those 2 points back (and on the other hand push things back even more in favor of Biden a point or two). Certainly appears the 60 minutes interview on Sunday is going to feed into the chaos narrative that isn’t helping Trump any.

    I’m watching where the candidates, specifically Trump and Pence, spend their time and deploy their top folks next week. If their principals are in Georgia, Minnesota, Ohio, and/or Iowa that’s going to be a bit telling that they’re having to shore up states way past the tipping point. I would think MI, FL, AZ, NC and PA would be where they send Trump. If NV is really in play, Trump will be there next week. If Biden is anywhere outside MI, WI, PA, NC, FL, and AZ, they think they can expand the map. If he’s in NV, they think that state is a problem. If he’s in OH, IA, GA, or TX they think this they could really blow open. My bet is they play it conservative and keep him in the Rust Belt and FL and drop Obama into the reach Sun Belt and Midwest reach states.
     
  6. #7 TCUdirtbag, Oct 21, 2020
    Last edited: Oct 21, 2020
    A 269-269 tie is a possible outcome! That’s the 2016 map, but with WI, MI, and AZ flipping to Biden. Notable here is that involves Trump holding FL, NC, ME-2, NE-2 (Omaha) and (most difficult in this scenario) PA. Very much in the realm of possibility.

    Election gets tossed to Congress where Trump would be the favorite. The (new) House would elect a President with each delegation getting one vote. Republicans currently have a majority in 26 state delegations, and it’s hard to imagine an electoral college tie resulting in Dems gaining new state delegation majorities. So Trump would be the definite favorite to win on January 6.

    More interestingly, the Senate elects the Vice President, with every senator getting one vote. If we assume senate elections follow the statewide outcome in the presidential vote, then Dems flip AZ, CO, and ME, and lose AL. Republicans elect Pence 51-49. But for fun, let’s say Dems pick up one more seat (NC, MT, GA [the Perdue seat] or IA). I assume Pence can vote for himself to break a 50-50 tie? Now what if Dems picked up 2 of those?! Would we have a Trump-Harris administration? Or would say a Manchin or hypothetical Senator Bullock/Greenfield say “the president should get to pick his Vice President” and flip? Some international outcome possibilities for sure.
     
  7. Lots of people are pissed at China (the CCP, not the people), and I see Trump recognizing Taiwan as an independent country. That could swing it in his favor.
     
  8. Kind of interesting to follow—prof at UF is tracking/compiling state election offices’ reports on received votes:

    https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

    Over 41m votes already cast/received. Just under 129m total votes were cast in 2016. So quickly closing in on 1/3 of the vote being in 2 weeks before Election Day.

    Interestingly the following swing or lean states are already at the following % of their 2016 vote: TX-59.2%, GA-45.9%, NC-45.2%, VA-39.3%, IA-38.5%, FL-38.4%, CO-37.5%, MI-36.7%, AZ-33.8%. These are all outpacing the national average (29.7%) *so far.* By contrast these swing or lean states are voting behind the national pace: NH-18%, PA-19.1%, NV-23.5%, OH-24.4%. These relative state rates are likely mostly a function of election laws, but are still interesting. They do show how many/few votes may still be out there.
     
  9. Are none of the folks predicting a reelection willing to make a prediction of what that might look like?
     
  10. Hardly anyone is willing to make an anonymous prediction. Which in and of itself I find pretty telling. Lots of folks not buying what they’re selling, methinks.
     
    Sweat Equity likes this.
  11. I think deep down most Trump fans think he's going to lose. I'm just wondering if we'll shift from "The polls are obviously wrong and Trump is really ahead" to "He really won, it was all voter fraud", before settling in to "America has gone soft and the socialists have taken over, smdh".
     
  12. Tbh, I think everyone feels Biden is more likable and less corrupt than Hillary Clinton.

    And here’s the deal:
    • In Michigan, Trump won 47.50 - 47.27 (10,704 votes), and overall turnout was flat from 2012. 5.23% voted for someone else (250,902 votes). In 2012 and 2008, the other/third party votes were 1.08% and 1.78% respectively.
    • In Wisconsin, Trump won 47.22 - 46.45 (22.748 vote margin), and overall turnout was down 3.01% from 2012. 6.3% voted for someone else (188,330 votes). In 2102 and 2008, the other/third party votes were 1.82% and 1.47% respectively.
    • In Pennsylvania, Trump won 48.18 - 47.46 (44,292 votes), and overall the out was up 3% from 2012. 4.36% voted for someone else (231,066 votes). In 2012 and 2008, the other/third party votes were 1.44% and 1.38% respectively.
    It’s hard to see how very tight 2016 was in these three — less than one percent—, the uncharacteristically high other/third party votes in these states, and then factor in a global pandemic, four years of chaos, economic uncertainty, the incumbent president’s current favorability ratings, and the relative favorability ratings between Biden and Clinton and not come to the conclusion that the fundamentals make Biden clearly favored.

    That said, I threw in the turnout numbers because I thought they were interesting. Down in WI, flat in MI, and up in PA. It’s easy to see why MI was flat—Black and youth turnout were down while non-college white and rural turnout were up. So the electorate itself changed. 2012 Obama voters stayed home and a lot more people than normal voted third party (third party voters are typically frequent voters). So you had a depressed Democrat base and a lot of protest vote. As unlikable as Hillary was, it makes sense that MI looks good for Biden. Wisconsin is interesting. Its demographics don’t explain why turnout was down as much as Pennsylvania’s was up—you’d expect those to move together. But again you look at that margin and the unusual third party vote and it’s easy to see why Wisconsin is a heavy lean toward Biden. Pennsylvania is where democrats should worry long/medium term. Black and youth turnout were down in Philly and Pitt. But overall turnout was still up 3%. PA is a place where Trump brought out a lot of *new* voters. While the third party vote was still unusually quite high, it wasn’t as much so as in MI and WI. So while the numbers still look favorable to Biden, there appears to be a bigger structural issue for democrats in PA going forward (in a way that tracks with AZ moving in the opposite direction for Republicans).

    Anyway, I think the raw numbers from 2016 relative to 2012 and 2008 are very revealing—Dems don’t need all that much and Biden is far more liked than Hillary was. And there’s so much chaos. It is clear why Biden is favored more than Hillary was 4 years ago.
     
    Sweat Equity likes this.
  13. Good analysis.
     
  14. Trump won Ohio by 8%. I have a ton of family in Ohio and they are all far better off now than they were 4 years ago. There's no way Biden makes up that difference.
     
    Salfrog and Showtime Joe 2.0 like this.
  15. I have two maps - one map is what things will look like on the morning of Wednesday, November 4.

    Trump is going to win Texas and Georgia guys and it will be called on election night. Those are pipe dreams for the Biden campaign and the media does this every year. Unlike most states, Florida/Colorado have the framework in place to quickly count and process mail ballots. I actually think Florida will be a surprise - Trump is going to win it by a margin so big the media will have no choice but to call it. I am calling a 3-4 point win in Florida for Trump. Colorado will be closer than people think but it will be called as well.

    Ohio and Iowa will have large Trump margins but the media will be stubborn and refuse to call either state for Trump despite his obvious wins there. Virginia and New Mexico will be surprisingly close. The rust belt states will all have mail in counting issues. Arizona/North Carolina will look like a Trump win, but the media will refuse to call those as well. The major court challenges will come to Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Nevada because of their extremely lax mail voting security issues.

    To put it this way, Trump's margin in Florida, easy wins in Texas and Georgia and apparent margins in Ohio/Iowa will cause everyone to have major doubt on what the media polls were saying, and Trump will be the odds on favorite to win on Wednesday Morning of November 5, which is why Twitter, Facebook, etc. is going to ban anyone calling the election for Trump. Biden will pretty much have to run the table in the uncalled states to pull it off.

    [​IMG]


    Ultimately this is what I think happens. Biden pulls out closer than expected wins in Virginia/New Mexico. Biden wins Nevada in a close one but ultimately comes out on top due to the extremely lax vote by mail system they have there. Pennsylvania will all come down to the Supreme Court - if everything stays in place as it is now, the mail in ballot shenanigans puts Biden over the top there as well. Trump wins Arizona/North Carolina by margins large enough to account for the mail in ballot shenanigans. Trump wins Ohio/Iowa by 6+ points each which makes the media seem petty for not calling it sooner. Pennsylvania ultimately won't matter - Trump takes Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. The Trump camp is planning a last minute blitz in Minnesota like he blitzed Michigan at the last minute in 2016 and won.

    [​IMG]
     
  16. What exactly do you think people are "selling"? I've seen maybe 2-3 people on here actually say they have any confidence Trump is gonna win.
     
  17. Just as an FYI..... the polls can be quite wrong without Trump being ahead. I don't trust polls at all and find them to be borderline useless, but I also don't think they are incorrect in that Biden is most likely ahead right now. My issue is that it's much closer than the polls say it is.
     
  18. I am on the record.

    If all you do is listen to the Nate Silvers of the world, its easy to think Trump has no shot. Nate has gotten the last 3 elections wrong(14/16/18), but he is seen as some kind of sooth sayer.

    I actually pay attention to pollsters, not poll readers like Nate Silvers, but actual pollsters; specifically pollsters that have gotten the last 3 election cycles correct, and forecasters who have a far better track record than Nate Silver, Nate Cohn and Harry Enten.

    Biden's campaign is a potemkin campaign, there is zero enthusiasm for his candidacy, none. It's a media manufactured mirage. There is a major disconnect between the false reality the media is trying to create about the Biden campaign's level of support vs. the reality of the situation. It's like they are trying to create a self fulfilling prophecy of a Biden win using media polls and false narratives.

    If the media is willing to stage audience plants at their town halls/TV events (big Biden supporters pretending to be undecideds), then what exactly do you think these same media outlets are doing with their polling?

    I've worked in political media for 8 years, all they do is lie and manufacture false realities to suit their overarching narratives. 2020 is no different, in fact, its worse this time around. I can actually see more of whats going on behind the scenes than the average person, therefore I am more in tune with reality.

    Here is a picture of Kamala in Asheville, NC; one of the most far left areas of the south, yet she can only draw about a dozen supporters. Major disconnect between what we can see on the ground vs. reality.

    [​IMG]
     
    Showtime Joe 2.0 likes this.
  19. You're at the top of my list of "2-3". While I certainly think Trump is capable of winning, if I have to say who I'm more confident will win as I sit here today I would say Biden.
     

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