1. The KillerFrogs

The Masters: predictions

Discussion in 'Scott & Wes Frog Fan Forum' started by Putt4Purple, Mar 29, 2021.


  1. The 23 are guys who fit his criteria that can win. The 10 are his personal betting picks.
     
  2. Ah, ok. Well, I could see Scott being on a top 23 list I guess. Just never expected his putter to hold up well enough to win.

    And on another note, looking over a list of Masters winners. Has it really been 24 years since Tiger lapped the field? And 29(!) since Boom Boom? Good god.
     
  3. I have a group of guys that we always get together and do the Tiger vs the Field bet and takes sides.

    With Tiger out again - we switch to the 2 guys or 3 guys against the field. We use the fantasy golf odds to determine the bet and a regression model to balance everyone in the group against a mythical house - so in the end the payout equals the "pay in"

    but anyways - I went with the 3 guys against the field and picked DJ, JT and Jordan - not exactly out on a limb, but I feel like those 3 are the best horses for courses right now.
     
  4. Interesting! Of my 3 that I picked only my SLEEPER, Collin Morikawa he has listed in the top ten. He is unheralded and under the radar. We shall see.
     
  5. Thanks for these. Loved Scott Fawcett's breakdown. Couple of really interesting bits there--like taking driver on the 7th because it is so narrow that you're unlikely to put 3-wood in the fairway any more often. And aiming for the middle on 8, 12, and 15 and allowing the natural shot dispersion to dictate scoring opportunities rather than trying to hit the window on one side of the distribution. That has to be a challenging approach for guys used to hunting flags.

    On the 23 who can win, I'm a fan of the 175-225 criterion, and the shot trajectory bit was interesting--didn't realize Berger and Cantlay were low-ball hitters. But I'm not convinced distance will be as much of a limiting factor as he claims, given how firm the course is playing and the success guys like Reed, Poulter, Kuchar and Molinari have had at Augusta.
     
  6. reed wasn’t filtered out on distance the year he won. Don’t know if he has gotten shorter or if the field has just gotten longer. The other guys would have to have a perfect week to win. Poultry also hits it a little lower. Every year there will be a guy or two outside of the list play well but they don’t win. It’s an interesting way to look at it for sure.

    the fawcett stuff holds up on any course. Just very cool to have the aerials as you watch and see where they should be aiming and see that some of their “misses” are well within a normal shot dispersion.
     
  7. The best iron players have always played well at Augusta. Morikawa is a really good pick.
     
    Putt4Purple likes this.
  8. Interestingly, and it sort of defies reason, highly-ranked putters don't often win there outside of Tiger and Nicklaus (and Mickelson / Crenshaw). The guys who are hitting their irons to the right spots on the greens aren't facing the extremely difficult putts as much.
     
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  9. Haven't played Dornick, but I'm glad to see that it is getting a Doak restoration, which I understand he did at a deep discount because of its Maxwell heritage, and in part because he lobbied for the gig, which got the attention of members. For those who want to see more of Dornick Hills:

    The Fried Egg also recently did a design video on Maxwell's Old Town Club in Winston-Salem, which doubles as the Wake Forest team course (and which got an update from Coore/Crenshaw recently. Having a Maxwell course down the street is one of many similarities between TCU and Wake, although the Deacs' golf tradition and on-course facilities are a few notches higher. Anyone played Old Town?
     
    westtexfrog likes this.
  10. wish Colonial had picked Doak...actually wish they had picked Ben to do it given his love for Texas golf and Colonial.

    Not really excited about Gil Hanse or his recent rendition of the plans
     
  11. did the southern hills renovation play into the decision to hire Hanse? I know shady contacted coore Crenshaw and they directed them to ogilvy just because of how busy they were. What ogilvy did at shady is special. Colonial renovations can’t get messed up after what shady just did and that’s coming from a guy who really really didn’t like shady before. Would of had it as my 5th favorite course in town before. Goes at the top now.
     
    gohornedfrogs and JogginFrog like this.
  12. I'm in!

    Looks like nearly all of us will be picking the same First Timer and Past Champ, so it will all come down to the American and International picks.
     
    JogginFrog likes this.
  13. I am sure Southern Hills did play a role.

    Obviously the Colonial work is going to be more what Southern did - tweaking things like lowering green complexes, reducing fairway bunkers and moving some to be hazards for the pros and not the members, changes in trees, moving some tees around and combining multiple tee boxes into larger, longer single tees for more options, etc.. We won't be changing entire hole routings or par - just adding some length in a few holes by moving greens back a little or tees.

    His plan is strongly based on getting the course back to more of what Maxwell originally designed - which I applaud, I just wonder if that is going to be successful.

    For example, one good move involves getting 8's design back to one that is closer to the original layout before the River authority and Army Corp forced the current design. So moving the tee down and to the right by the river and the green back to the left where it sits beside the 9 white tees and the creek on the left comes into play again.

    Beyond that, probably the biggest visual change is turning the dry valleys on 10, 17, the entire creek that runs down 16 and 17, and a few other areas like down the left side of 5 to be more natural "barrancas" areas instead of the mown areas or LA water system replica for the creek they are now.

    I like Shady a lot more than before also. I didn't like it at all previously - felt like it was two 9 nines from different courses and the front was short with gimmicky tilted greens and the back design by a guy with no course design experience (oh yeah, that's right....). I do like the new course a lot better - but then they almost had a blank slate. I still don't think it is the shot makers course that Colonial is but it is definitely the best of the rest by a long shot.
     
    gohornedfrogs and JogginFrog like this.
  14. If I had unlimited money and was building a course right now, Crenshaw/Coore would be my pick. They've done some outstanding work. Doak is excellent, too. It's just hard to imagine that Texas Tech has a Tom Doak golf course.
     
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  15. I debated a while on past champ, but then just took the other as my American. I’ll be surprised if there isn’t a pretty clear favorite in the International player category.
     
  16. well all the top guys are really good anymore - it comes down to their philosophy about things like moving dirt vs natural terrain, how you implement playability from multiple tees, forced carry vs playing on the ground, etc.

    Hanse worked with Doak for several years before going out on his own - so they have some things they do very similar like spending a lot of time onsite during the build. I am not sure what role Jim Wagner plays but he seems to be Hanse's silent partner -

    Hanse got a lot of street cred from doing the Olympic course and the redesigns at Southern Hills, Winged Foot, Aronimink, Baltustrol, and LA CC were all not only bringing the courses back to more of their original designs but also doing it in a way to prepare them to handle major PGA tournament play - so that seems to have played a major role in the decision since Colonial obviously needs to be capable of hosting the Schwab without being torn to bits by the pros in addition to getting the refresh for the members.

    He has become the new RTJ jr - the guy that courses call to get them ready for their next major - which Colonial won't be a major site but definitely want it to continue to play the role of one of the last old school courses on the tour that can still stand up to the modern game.
     
    gohornedfrogs likes this.
  17. I went against the odds a little on the international pick. Went more for recent performance than overall record. Figured I needed to gamble for the win!
     
    JogginFrog and Frog-in-law1995 like this.

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