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The Likely BCS Scenarios & Factors
Nebraska RB Roy Helu
|
What are all the parts to the BCS equation and what's likely to happen in each conference? Here are the possible scenarios and thoughts about what the 2011 BCS might end up looking like.
2010 Spring Preview - No. 1
The 2011 BCS Scenarios
PART ONE: The Boise State factor
After all the success and all the impressive performances at a high level, there's a groundswell of support for the idea that the time has come to give Boise State an honest shot of being in the national title mix. Remember, had Oklahoma State beaten Oklahoma, or if Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, Boise State wouldn't have gone to the Fiesta and wouldn't have the same buzz. But now things have changed perception-wise, and the Broncos will be in almost everyone's preseason top five, if not top three, partly because of reputation, partly because of respect, and partly because everyone is returning including Ryan Dinwiddie, Brock Forsey, Dirk Koetter, Dan Hawkins, and Ian Johnson's spunky cheerleader wife.
However, there was also a buzz about Boise State after an impressive 11-1 2004 season, and then the music died in a hurry when Jared Zabransky couldn't stop giving the ball to Bulldog defenders in a 48-13 opening day loss at Georgia. If the Broncos can beat Virginia Tech, in what amounts to a Hokie home game in Landover, Maryland, it's game over; they're going 12-0 even with Oregon State to play and with road games at Wyoming, Idaho, and Nevada to deal with. Virginia Tech is loaded, will be jacked up to make a statement, and will likely pull off the win. Boise State will go 11-1 taking the national title option for the WAC out of play.
PART TWO: The Mountain West
Swept under the rug during TCU's amazing 12-0 regular season run was how good the offense was. The defense got all the accolades and headlines, but the offense was every bit as dominant, if not more so, and now everyone of note is back on what should be a killer attack. The Horned Frog world stops spinning if QB Andy Dalton gets hurt, but let's say for the time-being that he lasts the season. It'll take a major upset for anyone (including Oregon State, with the game played in Arlington, Texas) to beat TCU over the first nine games, which means the one truly dangerous landmine, a trip to Utah, could decide the Mountain West title, and possibly more.
The Utes open up with Pitt and have to go to Iowa State, Wyoming, Air Force, and Notre Dame, but any team good enough think the BCS is possible has to get through those games without a scratch (although, watch out for the battle at Air Force, the most dangerous of the bunch). The BYU showdown is in Salt Lake City, as is the November 6th game against TCU. Considering how strong the Horned Frogs are going to be, assume TCU wins and rolls through the regular season to finish 12-0 for a second year in a row.
PART THREE: The SEC
Here's where things get really sticky. Remember, it took a few Terrence Cody blocked kicks for Alabama to beat Tennessee and there was a mega-scare against Auburn. This year's Tide team might be terrific on offense, but it has some major reloading to do on defense. It's asking way too much in a conference as nasty as the SEC to get through unscathed in a rebuilding year, so assume there's at least one Tide loss along the way with road trips against strong, improved teams like Arkansas and South Carolina and with a brutal road date at LSU the game after going to Tennessee. Throw in home games against Penn State, Florida, and Auburn, and one loss is more than likely with a 10-2 regular season a better bet.
Florida has yet to go unbeaten under Urban Meyer, and with a huge rebuilding job being done on both sides of the ball, the likely No. 6 ranked team to start the season (after Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, and Texas) is a mortal lock to get tagged at least once with road games at Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida State, the neutral site game against Georgia, and with home dates against South Florida, LSU, and South Carolina.
So let's assume the SEC champion will have one loss, and then take it a step further and consider the possibility of a two-loss champion (likely to be either Alabama, Florida, or LSU).
PART FOUR: The Big Ten
You can't probably name another Buckeye other than Terrelle Pryor, but almost everyone of note is back from the Rose Bowl championship squad and the mega-recruiting class of a few years ago is about to mature. Almost certain to be ranked second to start the season, or at worst thir by the Coaches' Poll (the only one that matters before the Harris Poll comes out), the loaded team just has to get through unscathed to play for the national title. That won't be easy with Miami, Penn State, at Wisconsin, and at Iowa on the schedule, so without any trip-ups like the one at Purdue last year, assume home wins over the Hurricanes and Nittany Lions, and assume a split against the Badgers and Hawkeyes to finish 11-1.
Iowa will be fantastic, but no one pulls that many rabbits out of hats two years in a row, and assume at least two losses with road games at Arizona, Michigan, Indiana (don't scoff; this is the best Hoosier team in years), and Northwestern to go along with the always nasty rivalry game against Iowa State and home battles against Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.
Wisconsin should be the second best team in the league, but it's Wisconsin; there will be some mistakes and some gags when the expectations are high. Last year's team didn't beat anyone with a pulse until the bowl win over Miami, and there will be at least two slips with road trips to Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan along with the home game against Ohio State. But even if everything goes great and UW finishes 11-1, that one loss will almost certainly come at the worst possible time with a two-game late October stretch of Ohio State and at Iowa. No matter what, the BCS computers are almost certainly going to hate the Badgers.
PART FIVE: The Big 12
If you're looking for that semi-sleeper to rise up and play for the national title, welcome to Nebraska.
It'll be easy to assume the Huskers will dip a bit after losing Ndamukong Suh, safety Larry Asante, and linebacker Philip Dillard, but 19 starters are back including ten on offense and seven on D. Head coach Bo Pelini is one of the best defensive minds in college football. He always fills in the gaps quickly and gets a high level out of his players, and this year won't be any different. The defense won't slip all that much, if at all, the offense can't help but be better (did you see the Holiday Bowl against Arizona?), and most importantly, there's Merry (bleep)ing Christmas of a schedule.
Western Kentucky, Idaho, at Washington, South Dakota State, at Kansas State, Texas, at Oklahoma State (who won't be anywhere near the Oklahoma State of the last few years), Missouri, at Iowa State, Kansas, at Texas A&M, and Colorado. Yeah, Texas is always tough, but that's at home, as is the showdown for the North title against Missouri. Washington isn't that good, Jake Locker and all, and while a road trip to Texas A&M will be dangerous, the Huskers have to put that one away if they really are national title-good.
Texas is roughly in the same boat with Florida; in 2012, and possibly even next year, there won't be any reason for anyone else to play the season with all the young NFL talent that'll be ready to explode. But for now, the Longhorns can be caught in a rebuilding year with a few slight changes to balance out the offense and several concerns on defense. Even so, the Texas schedule is relatively light and breezy outside of a trip to Texas Tech, the Oklahoma showdown, and the date at Nebraska. So assuming there aren't any home losses against an Oklahoma State or a Texas A&M, it's likely going to be a three-game season for the defending Big 12 champion.
The easiest scenario puts Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 title for the second year in a row with the winner of the first meeting having to come up with a second victory to potentially finish unbeaten. It won't happen. Assume the Big 12 champion has one loss.
PART SIX: Everyone else
The ACC is going to be as deep and as good as ever with North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson all in the conference title hunt, with other teams like Boston College and NC State to be thorny and Virginia and Maryland to be better. In other words, the champion isn't going to be undefeated and it'll probably have at least two losses.
The same goes for the Big East with West Virginia, Pitt, Rutgers, and Connecticut all impressive, Cincinnati and South Florida still tough even with the coaching changes, and Louisville and Syracuse improved. The Mountaineers are likely going to be the best of the lot, but they have to go to LSU early in the year and have a run of three road games in four including dates at Connecticut and Pitt. The Big East champion isn't going to be undefeated.
Don't even start with the Pac 10. The league is going to be a weekly war of attrition with everyone but Washington State likely to pull off a win at any time. USC and Oregon have the most talent, but they also have way too many issues to finish undefeated and no one else has enough in the bag to go 12-0.
With all of that in mind, there's still the question of what the pollsters will end up doing when push comes to shove, and of course, what the computers like and don't like. A two-loss Alabama might be better according to the computer formulas than an unbeaten Boise State, and that's the reason for the BCS in the first place; it's supposed to compare apples to oranges.
Again, as last year showed, it's all about the preseason ranking from the Coaches' Poll … if you're in a BCS league. The preseason top five will almost certainly have Alabama 1, Ohio State 2, and Boise State 3. After that it gets a little murky with Virginia Tech, Texas and Florida battling to round out the top five with TCU and Iowa lurking.
Considering the likely preseason rankings, the prestige of the various teams, the schedules, and the respect given to an unbeaten BCS team over an unbeaten Boise State or Mountain West champion, if all things are equal the 2010 national title pecking order it probably goes something like this:
1) Unbeaten SEC champion
2) Unbeaten Ohio State
3) Unbeaten USC
4) Unbeaten Big 12 champion
5) Unbeaten non-Ohio State Big Ten champion
6) Unbeaten non-USC Pac 10 champion
7) Unbeaten ACC champion
8) One-loss SEC champion
9) Unbeaten Boise State
10) Unbeaten Big East champion
11) Unbeaten TCU, Utah or BYU
12) One-loss Ohio State.
Most Likely Scenario 1 (the going chalk version)
Boise State, TCU, and Utah all have one loss, the SEC champion has no more than one loss, Ohio State has no more than one loss, and the Big 12, Big East, ACC, and Pac 10 champions all have at least one loss. If that happens, then the BCS will likely look like this (with the pecking order this year of at-large selections going Orange, Fiesta, Sugar after the conference tie-ins lost to the BCS Championship are replaced) …
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten No. 2
Sugar: SEC title game loser vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. Highest Ranked Non-BCS Team
BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. SEC champion
Most Likely Scenario 2 (the chaos theory)
The Mountain West champion (Utah or TCU) is unbeaten, Ohio State is the Big Ten champion at either 11-1 or 12-0, the Big 12 champion has one loss, Boise State has one loss, the Pac 10 champion has more than one loss and the league gets just one team in the BCS, and the SEC champion has two losses.
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big 12 No. 2
Sugar: SEC champion vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. SEC title game loser
BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. TCU vs. Utah winner
Most Likely Scenario 3 (same as it ever was)
The SEC champion has no more than one loss, the Big 12 champion is unbeaten, Boise State, TCU and Utah all have one loss or are unbeaten and the SEC champion is 13-0, and no other BCS team has fewer than one loss.
Fiesta: Big 12 title game loser vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten champion
Sugar: SEC title game loser vs. Highest ranked Non-BCS team
Orange: ACC champion vs. No. 2 Big Ten team
BCS Championship: Big 12 champion vs. SEC champion
Most Likely Scenario 4 (Oooo... It's the Big One... You hear that Elizabeth... I'm comin' to you, I'm comin' home to Georgia)
Utter freakin' nuttiness. The TCU-Utah winner and Boise State are unbeaten, everyone else has at least one loss, and the SEC champion has lost twice. In other words, it's 2007 for the BCS conferences.
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten champion
Sugar: SEC champion vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. SEC title game loser
BCS Championship: Boise State vs. TCU-Utah winner
Now watch as Connecticut and California go unbeaten and we're all thrown for a loop.
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The Likely BCS Scenarios & Factors
Nebraska RB Roy Helu
|
What are all the parts to the BCS equation and what's likely to happen in each conference? Here are the possible scenarios and thoughts about what the 2011 BCS might end up looking like.
2010 Spring Preview - No. 1
The 2011 BCS Scenarios
PART ONE: The Boise State factor
After all the success and all the impressive performances at a high level, there's a groundswell of support for the idea that the time has come to give Boise State an honest shot of being in the national title mix. Remember, had Oklahoma State beaten Oklahoma, or if Nebraska had beaten Texas in the Big 12 title game, Boise State wouldn't have gone to the Fiesta and wouldn't have the same buzz. But now things have changed perception-wise, and the Broncos will be in almost everyone's preseason top five, if not top three, partly because of reputation, partly because of respect, and partly because everyone is returning including Ryan Dinwiddie, Brock Forsey, Dirk Koetter, Dan Hawkins, and Ian Johnson's spunky cheerleader wife.
However, there was also a buzz about Boise State after an impressive 11-1 2004 season, and then the music died in a hurry when Jared Zabransky couldn't stop giving the ball to Bulldog defenders in a 48-13 opening day loss at Georgia. If the Broncos can beat Virginia Tech, in what amounts to a Hokie home game in Landover, Maryland, it's game over; they're going 12-0 even with Oregon State to play and with road games at Wyoming, Idaho, and Nevada to deal with. Virginia Tech is loaded, will be jacked up to make a statement, and will likely pull off the win. Boise State will go 11-1 taking the national title option for the WAC out of play.
PART TWO: The Mountain West
Swept under the rug during TCU's amazing 12-0 regular season run was how good the offense was. The defense got all the accolades and headlines, but the offense was every bit as dominant, if not more so, and now everyone of note is back on what should be a killer attack. The Horned Frog world stops spinning if QB Andy Dalton gets hurt, but let's say for the time-being that he lasts the season. It'll take a major upset for anyone (including Oregon State, with the game played in Arlington, Texas) to beat TCU over the first nine games, which means the one truly dangerous landmine, a trip to Utah, could decide the Mountain West title, and possibly more.
The Utes open up with Pitt and have to go to Iowa State, Wyoming, Air Force, and Notre Dame, but any team good enough think the BCS is possible has to get through those games without a scratch (although, watch out for the battle at Air Force, the most dangerous of the bunch). The BYU showdown is in Salt Lake City, as is the November 6th game against TCU. Considering how strong the Horned Frogs are going to be, assume TCU wins and rolls through the regular season to finish 12-0 for a second year in a row.
PART THREE: The SEC
Here's where things get really sticky. Remember, it took a few Terrence Cody blocked kicks for Alabama to beat Tennessee and there was a mega-scare against Auburn. This year's Tide team might be terrific on offense, but it has some major reloading to do on defense. It's asking way too much in a conference as nasty as the SEC to get through unscathed in a rebuilding year, so assume there's at least one Tide loss along the way with road trips against strong, improved teams like Arkansas and South Carolina and with a brutal road date at LSU the game after going to Tennessee. Throw in home games against Penn State, Florida, and Auburn, and one loss is more than likely with a 10-2 regular season a better bet.
Florida has yet to go unbeaten under Urban Meyer, and with a huge rebuilding job being done on both sides of the ball, the likely No. 6 ranked team to start the season (after Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, Virginia Tech, and Texas) is a mortal lock to get tagged at least once with road games at Tennessee, Alabama, and Florida State, the neutral site game against Georgia, and with home dates against South Florida, LSU, and South Carolina.
So let's assume the SEC champion will have one loss, and then take it a step further and consider the possibility of a two-loss champion (likely to be either Alabama, Florida, or LSU).
PART FOUR: The Big Ten
You can't probably name another Buckeye other than Terrelle Pryor, but almost everyone of note is back from the Rose Bowl championship squad and the mega-recruiting class of a few years ago is about to mature. Almost certain to be ranked second to start the season, or at worst thir by the Coaches' Poll (the only one that matters before the Harris Poll comes out), the loaded team just has to get through unscathed to play for the national title. That won't be easy with Miami, Penn State, at Wisconsin, and at Iowa on the schedule, so without any trip-ups like the one at Purdue last year, assume home wins over the Hurricanes and Nittany Lions, and assume a split against the Badgers and Hawkeyes to finish 11-1.
Iowa will be fantastic, but no one pulls that many rabbits out of hats two years in a row, and assume at least two losses with road games at Arizona, Michigan, Indiana (don't scoff; this is the best Hoosier team in years), and Northwestern to go along with the always nasty rivalry game against Iowa State and home battles against Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Ohio State.
Wisconsin should be the second best team in the league, but it's Wisconsin; there will be some mistakes and some gags when the expectations are high. Last year's team didn't beat anyone with a pulse until the bowl win over Miami, and there will be at least two slips with road trips to Michigan State, Iowa, Purdue, and Michigan along with the home game against Ohio State. But even if everything goes great and UW finishes 11-1, that one loss will almost certainly come at the worst possible time with a two-game late October stretch of Ohio State and at Iowa. No matter what, the BCS computers are almost certainly going to hate the Badgers.
PART FIVE: The Big 12
If you're looking for that semi-sleeper to rise up and play for the national title, welcome to Nebraska.
It'll be easy to assume the Huskers will dip a bit after losing Ndamukong Suh, safety Larry Asante, and linebacker Philip Dillard, but 19 starters are back including ten on offense and seven on D. Head coach Bo Pelini is one of the best defensive minds in college football. He always fills in the gaps quickly and gets a high level out of his players, and this year won't be any different. The defense won't slip all that much, if at all, the offense can't help but be better (did you see the Holiday Bowl against Arizona?), and most importantly, there's Merry (bleep)ing Christmas of a schedule.
Western Kentucky, Idaho, at Washington, South Dakota State, at Kansas State, Texas, at Oklahoma State (who won't be anywhere near the Oklahoma State of the last few years), Missouri, at Iowa State, Kansas, at Texas A&M, and Colorado. Yeah, Texas is always tough, but that's at home, as is the showdown for the North title against Missouri. Washington isn't that good, Jake Locker and all, and while a road trip to Texas A&M will be dangerous, the Huskers have to put that one away if they really are national title-good.
Texas is roughly in the same boat with Florida; in 2012, and possibly even next year, there won't be any reason for anyone else to play the season with all the young NFL talent that'll be ready to explode. But for now, the Longhorns can be caught in a rebuilding year with a few slight changes to balance out the offense and several concerns on defense. Even so, the Texas schedule is relatively light and breezy outside of a trip to Texas Tech, the Oklahoma showdown, and the date at Nebraska. So assuming there aren't any home losses against an Oklahoma State or a Texas A&M, it's likely going to be a three-game season for the defending Big 12 champion.
The easiest scenario puts Nebraska and Texas in the Big 12 title for the second year in a row with the winner of the first meeting having to come up with a second victory to potentially finish unbeaten. It won't happen. Assume the Big 12 champion has one loss.
PART SIX: Everyone else
The ACC is going to be as deep and as good as ever with North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson all in the conference title hunt, with other teams like Boston College and NC State to be thorny and Virginia and Maryland to be better. In other words, the champion isn't going to be undefeated and it'll probably have at least two losses.
The same goes for the Big East with West Virginia, Pitt, Rutgers, and Connecticut all impressive, Cincinnati and South Florida still tough even with the coaching changes, and Louisville and Syracuse improved. The Mountaineers are likely going to be the best of the lot, but they have to go to LSU early in the year and have a run of three road games in four including dates at Connecticut and Pitt. The Big East champion isn't going to be undefeated.
Don't even start with the Pac 10. The league is going to be a weekly war of attrition with everyone but Washington State likely to pull off a win at any time. USC and Oregon have the most talent, but they also have way too many issues to finish undefeated and no one else has enough in the bag to go 12-0.
With all of that in mind, there's still the question of what the pollsters will end up doing when push comes to shove, and of course, what the computers like and don't like. A two-loss Alabama might be better according to the computer formulas than an unbeaten Boise State, and that's the reason for the BCS in the first place; it's supposed to compare apples to oranges.
Again, as last year showed, it's all about the preseason ranking from the Coaches' Poll … if you're in a BCS league. The preseason top five will almost certainly have Alabama 1, Ohio State 2, and Boise State 3. After that it gets a little murky with Virginia Tech, Texas and Florida battling to round out the top five with TCU and Iowa lurking.
Considering the likely preseason rankings, the prestige of the various teams, the schedules, and the respect given to an unbeaten BCS team over an unbeaten Boise State or Mountain West champion, if all things are equal the 2010 national title pecking order it probably goes something like this:
1) Unbeaten SEC champion
2) Unbeaten Ohio State
3) Unbeaten USC
4) Unbeaten Big 12 champion
5) Unbeaten non-Ohio State Big Ten champion
6) Unbeaten non-USC Pac 10 champion
7) Unbeaten ACC champion
8) One-loss SEC champion
9) Unbeaten Boise State
10) Unbeaten Big East champion
11) Unbeaten TCU, Utah or BYU
12) One-loss Ohio State.
Most Likely Scenario 1 (the going chalk version)
Boise State, TCU, and Utah all have one loss, the SEC champion has no more than one loss, Ohio State has no more than one loss, and the Big 12, Big East, ACC, and Pac 10 champions all have at least one loss. If that happens, then the BCS will likely look like this (with the pecking order this year of at-large selections going Orange, Fiesta, Sugar after the conference tie-ins lost to the BCS Championship are replaced) …
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten No. 2
Sugar: SEC title game loser vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. Highest Ranked Non-BCS Team
BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. SEC champion
Most Likely Scenario 2 (the chaos theory)
The Mountain West champion (Utah or TCU) is unbeaten, Ohio State is the Big Ten champion at either 11-1 or 12-0, the Big 12 champion has one loss, Boise State has one loss, the Pac 10 champion has more than one loss and the league gets just one team in the BCS, and the SEC champion has two losses.
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big 12 No. 2
Sugar: SEC champion vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. SEC title game loser
BCS Championship: Ohio State vs. TCU vs. Utah winner
Most Likely Scenario 3 (same as it ever was)
The SEC champion has no more than one loss, the Big 12 champion is unbeaten, Boise State, TCU and Utah all have one loss or are unbeaten and the SEC champion is 13-0, and no other BCS team has fewer than one loss.
Fiesta: Big 12 title game loser vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten champion
Sugar: SEC title game loser vs. Highest ranked Non-BCS team
Orange: ACC champion vs. No. 2 Big Ten team
BCS Championship: Big 12 champion vs. SEC champion
Most Likely Scenario 4 (Oooo... It's the Big One... You hear that Elizabeth... I'm comin' to you, I'm comin' home to Georgia)
Utter freakin' nuttiness. The TCU-Utah winner and Boise State are unbeaten, everyone else has at least one loss, and the SEC champion has lost twice. In other words, it's 2007 for the BCS conferences.
Fiesta: Big 12 champion vs. Big East champion
Rose: Pac 10 champion vs. Big Ten champion
Sugar: SEC champion vs. Big 12 title game loser
Orange: ACC champion vs. SEC title game loser
BCS Championship: Boise State vs. TCU-Utah winner
Now watch as Connecticut and California go unbeaten and we're all thrown for a loop.
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