FeistyFrog
Sir FeistyFrog
Aggies are on a roll and Sumlin is cashing in on that fact with this years recruiting class, but is he going overboard? And if so what are the risks?
The Facts:
Currently the Aggies have 32 commits for the class of 2013 and are expected to land Justin Manning and Ricky Seals-Jones. The NCAA limits the number of scholarships in football to 25 annually and 85 overall. There are exceptions to the 25 annual limit, or really ways to get around it on signing day. However the 85 limit is a hard limit and must be held at the start of the fall semester and throughout the football season. It can increase in the spring for early enrollees but come fall it needs to be correct.
Currently the Aggies have 60 underclassmen on scholarship, those are non-seniors and eligible to play in the 2013 season. I will list those in the next post.
So it is simple, currently there are 25 openings for the class of 2013.
So how can they get to 34 or possibly more:
One of the simplest ways to expand the 25 limit is signing early enrollees, either JUCO or High School players who are eligible to enroll for the spring semester. The JUCO players can actually sign early in December but the high school players will wait until the February signing date. So how does that expand the 25 limit? If you have unused scholarships at the time of signing from the previous year based upon the 25 limit you have the option to count the early signings against the prior year's class. The Aggies only have 16 graduating seniors so they can "push back" up to 9 early enrollees to 2012. They are expecting around 7 early enrolless so that can get them to 32.
But wait, even if you push back 7, you still get over the 85 limit by 7.
So the question remains, how can they get to 34 or more since they still only have 25 slots.
Again the limit really isn't on how many you sign, but on how many can enroll on scholarship, so signing date is a "free for all", sign now and we will worry about the rest later.
So here is the gambit:
Basically two things are at work that will make a 34 or more signing date viable for Sumlin and staff. The first is that not all of those being signed will actually qualify to enroll in August. Why sign kids you don't expect to enroll? Who knows, maybe they get qualified, but if they do you are screwed aren't you? Not if a lot of number 2 happens (pun intented), but otherwise yes. It is believed that at least 4 players will not enroll due to grades or going pro baseball. If that holds they could sign 29 and hit their limits.
So what is number 2: career ending injuries, players leaving early for the NFL, and all other crap that can happen among the 60 currently on scholarships. This is where pushing players back to 2012 counts. If they lose 7 players from the 60 they can basically expand the 25 limit to 32, if you add to 4 not expected to enroll that get them 36. Basically they can lose 9 players from the 60 and have a total signing class of 38. To get to 34 they need to lose 5.
So who are the 5 (or 9)
First there may be 3 players that declare for the NFL draft, so they hit 32. The others????
So Sumlin playing the odds, first that all 4 or more signees expected to not make it in do not make it in. 2nd, 3 declare for the draft and at least 2 others fail to make it back for whatever reasons.
So what happens if it doesn't work out?
Sumlin obviously hoping it does, but how would you like your coach hoping that from your teammates and recruits? But if not he has to start cutting and that comes either from the 60 or from the signees.
Already he has told one JUCO commit they no longer have an opening for him and he is left scrambling. My guess is the rest will come from the 60.
Bobby Petrino played this game and last year he ended up cutting some highly rated prospects. Obviously we will never find out the effect of this on his future recruiting at Arkansas as Karma stepped in and showed him out. The odds are it will work out for Sumlin but he is risking a lot of players futures on this gambit.
The Facts:
Currently the Aggies have 32 commits for the class of 2013 and are expected to land Justin Manning and Ricky Seals-Jones. The NCAA limits the number of scholarships in football to 25 annually and 85 overall. There are exceptions to the 25 annual limit, or really ways to get around it on signing day. However the 85 limit is a hard limit and must be held at the start of the fall semester and throughout the football season. It can increase in the spring for early enrollees but come fall it needs to be correct.
Currently the Aggies have 60 underclassmen on scholarship, those are non-seniors and eligible to play in the 2013 season. I will list those in the next post.
So it is simple, currently there are 25 openings for the class of 2013.
So how can they get to 34 or possibly more:
One of the simplest ways to expand the 25 limit is signing early enrollees, either JUCO or High School players who are eligible to enroll for the spring semester. The JUCO players can actually sign early in December but the high school players will wait until the February signing date. So how does that expand the 25 limit? If you have unused scholarships at the time of signing from the previous year based upon the 25 limit you have the option to count the early signings against the prior year's class. The Aggies only have 16 graduating seniors so they can "push back" up to 9 early enrollees to 2012. They are expecting around 7 early enrolless so that can get them to 32.
But wait, even if you push back 7, you still get over the 85 limit by 7.
So the question remains, how can they get to 34 or more since they still only have 25 slots.
Again the limit really isn't on how many you sign, but on how many can enroll on scholarship, so signing date is a "free for all", sign now and we will worry about the rest later.
So here is the gambit:
Basically two things are at work that will make a 34 or more signing date viable for Sumlin and staff. The first is that not all of those being signed will actually qualify to enroll in August. Why sign kids you don't expect to enroll? Who knows, maybe they get qualified, but if they do you are screwed aren't you? Not if a lot of number 2 happens (pun intented), but otherwise yes. It is believed that at least 4 players will not enroll due to grades or going pro baseball. If that holds they could sign 29 and hit their limits.
So what is number 2: career ending injuries, players leaving early for the NFL, and all other crap that can happen among the 60 currently on scholarships. This is where pushing players back to 2012 counts. If they lose 7 players from the 60 they can basically expand the 25 limit to 32, if you add to 4 not expected to enroll that get them 36. Basically they can lose 9 players from the 60 and have a total signing class of 38. To get to 34 they need to lose 5.
So who are the 5 (or 9)
First there may be 3 players that declare for the NFL draft, so they hit 32. The others????
So Sumlin playing the odds, first that all 4 or more signees expected to not make it in do not make it in. 2nd, 3 declare for the draft and at least 2 others fail to make it back for whatever reasons.
So what happens if it doesn't work out?
Sumlin obviously hoping it does, but how would you like your coach hoping that from your teammates and recruits? But if not he has to start cutting and that comes either from the 60 or from the signees.
Already he has told one JUCO commit they no longer have an opening for him and he is left scrambling. My guess is the rest will come from the 60.
Bobby Petrino played this game and last year he ended up cutting some highly rated prospects. Obviously we will never find out the effect of this on his future recruiting at Arkansas as Karma stepped in and showed him out. The odds are it will work out for Sumlin but he is risking a lot of players futures on this gambit.
