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The Examiner: Hopes to host a Super Regional may be lost for TCU baseball, but glass still mostly fu

TCUFrogs

New Member
QUOTE(TopFrog @ May 19 2010, 06:21 AM) [snapback]561436[/snapback]
The Examiner: Hopes to host a Super Regional may be lost for TCU baseball, but glass still mostly full

It's been a goal all season for the TCU baseball team: win a Super Regional. On more than one occasion, the players and coaching staff have talked about it and made it well-known: even by documenting it. In fact, this team will likely consider anything short of a trip to the College World Series as a disappointment.



That is a good article.

Finish strong Frogs and be ready!
 

TCUFrogs

New Member
QUOTE(MoneyFrog @ May 19 2010, 08:16 AM) [snapback]561468[/snapback]
what will be the date of the Regional tournament here in Fort Worth? first weekend in June?



Sounds about right. MWC tourney ends 29th in San Diego and the NCAA seeds come out on the 31st, maybe?
 

StealthFrog

Full Member
Last season's national seeds had RPIs of 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 16, and 18. Conference standing/titles and record against Top 50/100 are similarly weighted factors.
 

TopFrog

Lifelong Frog
I know it's been discussed some the past couple of days, but some of the baseball RPI stuff borders on ridiculous.
 

FrogsMcGee

Active Member
The statement in that article that it would help TCU's RPI to lose all 3 games is completely false. It's never better, in terms of RPI, to lose to an opponent. Not even close.

The wins against Air Force dropped our RPI about .0025 each. The loss against Air Force dropped our RPI about .007.

I think wins against CSB will keep our RPI roughly even, maybe even increase it very slightly (.0005 per win). Losses against CSB would drop our RPI by .003-.004 per loss.
 

Spike

Full Member
QUOTE(FrogsMcGee @ May 19 2010, 03:56 PM) [snapback]561585[/snapback]
The statement in that article that it would help TCU's RPI to lose all 3 games is completely false. It's never better, in terms of RPI, to lose to an opponent. Not even close.

The wins against Air Force dropped our RPI about .0025 each. The loss against Air Force dropped our RPI about .007.

I think wins against CSB will keep our RPI roughly even, maybe even increase it very slightly (.0005 per win). Losses against CSB would drop our RPI by .003-.004 per loss.


I think it's a bit silly to have your RPI drop when you win. It's not like we have a choice to not play AFA. FWIW DBU was pretty decent when the schedule was made.
 

FrogsMcGee

Active Member
Here's the math. Stop reading now if you aren't into the details.

RPI formula is .25(your winning percentage) + .5(your opponent's winning percentage) + .25(your opponent's opponent's winning percentage) +- some bonus/penalty points for winning road games against high-rpi teams or losing home games against low rpi teams.

Ignore the bonus part and assume the opponent's opponent's winning percentage is .500 because I don't want to figure that. Then you are down to your winning percentage and the sum of all of your opponent's winning percentage.

The first part of the formula for TCU currently:
.25(40/51) = .196078
After our next result that number will either be .25(41/52)=.197115 or .25(40/52)=.192307. So we go up by .001037 or down by .003771. The loss is much more painful.

The second part of the formula currently:
.5(1264/2617) = .241498
All else being equal (our non-CSB opponents winnign percentage unchanged), that number will be .5(1287/2666)=.24137 with a win or .5(1288/2666)=.24156 with a loss.

So, before other changes to our non-CSB opponents, Thursday's result will increase our RPI by about .00096 with a win and decrease our RPI by about .00366 with a loss.

Those will be offset by other results, but it's the approx. change from our Thursday game alone. It's never better to lose a game for your RPI.
 
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