Michigan 43
TCU 29
No one has put up 30 on Michigan this year and only 3 teams (Ohio State, Purdue, Maryland) have even reached 20. TCU doesn’t have a better offense or talent than Ohio State, but I do think that Duggan/TCU is more dangerous than Stroud/Day against Michigan since they’re willing to run. The problem is that even if TCU can hit 30, I don’t see your defense keeping Michigan under 34.
Only 3 of the previous 16 semifinal games have been particularly close. While I think the game will feel close for a while, the final score will continue this trend.