TCU Super Regional

[ftwfrog]

Just have to stay away from a fiasco like the 9th inning in our first regional game.

In what I like to call "winning time" baseball, where the game is within 3 runs, Ahead or behind, we won't be throwing those younger, struggling bullpen guys. This brings me to a wonderful asset that we aren't talking about. Since this is a 3 game series we have the absolute luxury of bringing Lodolo(or Traver) out of the bullpen. One of them isn't going to start. Let's say Howard goes 7 and the game is tied and he is gassed due to pitch count. You can bring in your 4th starter since he won't be needed and our 4th starter (whoever it is) is a hell of a pitcher. He can go 5 or 6 innings if needed. It's baseball, our aces might not show up this weekend but we certainly won't lack pitching in a 3 game series. Darn the Bears!!


Getting excited.

 

[SportsJunkie]

Looking at the season statistics the two teams are very close. Here are some of the major stats with TCU listed first. Both teams have played 61 games so the stats shown as total numbers for the year are directly comparable.

Batting Average .272 to .278
OBP .379 to .393
HR 54 to 78
Stolen bases/caught 100/18 to 55/19
Sac bunts 2 to 28 (ok not what I'd really consider a major stat but had to throw it in there)
Runs per game 6.9 to 7.0
Runs allowed/game 4.70 to 4.26
ERA 4.07 to 3.72
Fielding % .974 to .975
WHIP 1.25 to 1.25
Winning % .738 to .705
SOS 29 to 106

But, I'm not sure how much team statistics for the whole year mean at this time of the year, unless your Oregon State who has been off the chart hot all year long.
This time of year its who is playing best right now. Whose best pitchers come through, who is healthy and who gets the clutch hit. With the way our starting pitching looked last weekend, I feel like we are moving in the right direction. Just have to stay away from a fiasco like the 9th inning in our first regional game.

Their .393 OBP stands out the most to me. That's very good! They work the count well and draw a lot of BBs and have quote a few HBPs too so I expect to see some guys that like to crowd the plate. Our pitchers need to throw to contact and really work hard at staying ahead in count. I think we'll be fine and I have faith in our hitting

 

[TCUdirtbag]

Not that it matters, but MO State played Okie State once and KU twice and lost all three Tuesday night games against common opponents. It looked like all three games in their regional that they won were just barely wins and then the one lost.

I don't think they were starting weekend starters in those midweek games. I was interested to know what their offense did vs. the OSU and KU midweek starters -- 3 @ OSU, 2 vs. KU, 5 @ KU. Not overwhelming. That said, their offensive numbers seem to have gone up through the season.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

I've seen some people say that they think Missouri State is better than Virginia. They may be (I certainly wouldn't know) but I don't remember anyone saying they should've been hosting a regional the way just about everyone was saying about UVA last week. So did they really just become better than Virginia over the last 5 days?

I don't think they're better than UVA, but I think their pitching is.

I also think the better teams are always more deserving of the right to host. A team like Missouri State has to do more when it plays in a weak league.

 

[WhatTheFrog]

Their .393 OBP stands out the most to me. That's very good! They work the count well and draw a lot of BBs and have quote a few HBPs too so I expect to see some guys that like to crowd the plate. Our pitchers need to throw to contact and really work hard at staying ahead in count. I think we'll be fine and I have faith in our hitting

SOS is what stands out the most to me. It frames the rest of the stats.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

My prediction:

Oregon St
Long Beach St
Sam Houston St
LSU

Davidson
Louisville
TCU
UF

My prediction is below. I think 6 of 8 super regional hosts advance. Think the first round Omaha games will be (with bracket results in parentheses):

Long Beach St (LL)
(1) Oregon St (WWW)
-----
Florida St (LWL)
(3) LSU (WLWL)
---------------------
Wake Forest (LWL)
(6) TCU (WWW)
-----
Texas A&M (LL)
(7) Louisville (WLWL)

If we can advance to Omaha, I like the way we match up against the teams on our side of the bracket. Oregon State is by far the favorite to take home the title, but anything can happen in a 3-game series in Omaha. Just gotta get there.

 

[TCUdirtbag]

Looking at the season statistics the two teams are very close. Here are some of the major stats with TCU listed first. Both teams have played 61 games so the stats shown as total numbers for the year are directly comparable.

Batting Average .272 to .278
OBP .379 to .393
HR 54 to 78
Stolen bases/caught 100/18 to 55/19
Sac bunts 2 to 28 (ok not what I'd really consider a major stat but had to throw it in there)
Runs per game 6.9 to 7.0
Runs allowed/game 4.70 to 4.26
ERA 4.07 to 3.72
Fielding % .974 to .975
WHIP 1.25 to 1.25
Winning % .738 to .705
SOS 29 to 106

But, I'm not sure how much team statistics for the whole year mean at this time of the year, unless your Oregon State who has been off the chart hot all year long.
This time of year its who is playing best right now. Whose best pitchers come through, who is healthy and who gets the clutch hit. With the way our starting pitching looked last weekend, I feel like we are moving in the right direction. Just have to stay away from a fiasco like the 9th inning in our first regional game.

Last stat in the laundry list is very significant. Frogs have nearly matched them with a much tougher schedule. They play in a minor league park, but I'm not sure if it's a pitcher-friendly park like Lupton or hitter-friendly park like Stillwater. Anyone know? Regardless, the SOS numbers factored in and the series being in FW, where TCU hasn't lost a series this year, would indicate this is TCU's series to lose.

 

[Deep Purple]

Dirtbag is right. It's time everybody realized that, as good a record as Missouri State has put together, they did it against weaker competition than TCU faced all season. There is a reason why our RPI is 6 and theirs is 24.

This is not to say that the series will be a cakewalk or ours for the taking. I fully expect a hard-fought series. But Missouri State is not the 10-foot-tall giant some are making them out to be. And considering that we have already prevailed against a tougher schedule and are playing at home, where we have not yet lost a series, I think many are building Missouri State up into a more formidable opponent than they actually are.

They are an extremely good team. We will have to play our best to beat them. But we have already faced and defeated better teams than Missouri State. Yes, they can win this series. But if you're playing the odds, TCU is unquestionably the favorite. Frankly, I think their job is much tougher than ours.

In Schloss I trust.

 

[OldSchoolFrog]

Looking at the season statistics the two teams are very close. Here are some of the major stats with TCU listed first. Both teams have played 61 games so the stats shown as total numbers for the year are directly comparable.

Batting Average .272 to .278
OBP .379 to .393
HR 54 to 78
Stolen bases/caught 100/18 to 55/19
Sac bunts 2 to 28 (ok not what I'd really consider a major stat but had to throw it in there)
Runs per game 6.9 to 7.0
Runs allowed/game 4.70 to 4.26
ERA 4.07 to 3.72
Fielding % .974 to .975
WHIP 1.25 to 1.25
Winning % .738 to .705
SOS 29 to 106

But, I'm not sure how much team statistics for the whole year mean at this time of the year, unless your Oregon State who has been off the chart hot all year long.
This time of year its who is playing best right now. Whose best pitchers come through, who is healthy and who gets the clutch hit. With the way our starting pitching looked last weekend, I feel like we are moving in the right direction. Just have to stay away from a fiasco like the 9th inning in our first regional game.

One of you fancy statisticians do an RPI factor and recalculate. Are the numbers that close in that scenario?

 

[flyfishingfrog]

I don't think they're better than UVA, but I think their pitching is.

I also think the better teams are always more deserving of the right to host. A team like Missouri State has to do more when it plays in a weak league.

Agree

Also don't think it matters if they are better or not - we played UVA one time - that's a lot different than a 3 game series

To me, the most interesting thing is that MSU seems to play baseball the same way TCU does and we don't see a lot of teams that have our same approach and mentality

Except they bunt of course...

 

[f_399]

How do the ticket sales work again?

For the regionals I picked up GA tickets then a couple days later reserved seats opened up.

When is the deadline for season pass holders to renew?

 

[Sand Frog]

After the poor showing in the regional from VA's top hitters, I wondered if the pitching was very strong in the ACC?

How do the ticket sales work again?

For the regionals I picked up GA tickets then a couple days later reserved seats opened up.

When is the deadline for season pass holders to renew?

Same as for the regional. Season ticket holders have until 5PM today to order.

 

[Sand Frog]

The veteran coach can choose from four players with a combined 15 starts, 10 wins and 98 innings in NCAA postseason play at TCU when a best-of-three Super Regional series against Missouri State begins Saturday at Lupton Stadium.

Sophomore right-hander Jared Janczak started and won a Super Regional game on the road last season and is 2-1 in five postseason starts. He has cemented his ace status with a 9-0 record and 1.89 ERA season in 2017.

Senior right-hander Brian Howard is unbeaten in his last four postseason starts and is TCU’s first back-to-back 10-game winner.


Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/sports...niversity/article154962114.html#storylink=cpy

I like our chances!!!!!!!!

 

[Sticky_Wicket]

Allow me to post this throwback gem from 2 years ago...

When this went on sale:

Some time before this happened:

 

[FrogLifeYo]

Stats on the season are very similar but our schedule was much more difficult. Anything can happen in a series but we have a battle test edge......on paper

 

[ShadowFrog]

Who wants to bet Ags are still complaining about sitting in the berm bushes after texting #tcu15

 

[Sticky_Wicket]

Who wants to bet Ags are still complaining about sitting in the berm bushes after texting #tcu15

"I can't believe those dumbarses at TCU tweeted their secret code! We'll show them derp derp derp"

 

[NNM]

Allow me to post this throwback gem from 2 years ago...

When this went on sale:

Some time before this happened:

Anyone have a video of Boomer's aggy ring error from last year?

 

[ftwfrog]

"I can't believe those dumbarses at TCU tweeted their secret code! We'll show them derp derp derp"

I loved that!! "We got em!! They're so dumb they gave us their secret code!!"
No, you got GA seats, just like another 10,000 people would have if they ordered tickets. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but we will never, ever sell out of GA seats. They'll sell as many as they can.

Now, back to hating Southwestern Missouri State Directional U.
Edit: Just so you know, they hate being called "Southwest Missouri State"

 

[Big Frog II]

I loved that!! "We got em!! They're so dumb they gave us their secret code!!"
No, you got GA seats, just like another 10,000 people would have if they ordered tickets. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but we will never, ever sell out of GA seats. They'll sell as many as they can.

Now, back to hating Southwestern Missouri State Directional U.
Edit: Just so you know, they hate being called "Southwest Missouri State"

Del Conte will sell tickets until he runs out of paper.