• The KillerFrogs

TCU Men's Tennis 2021-2022

jake102

Active Member
The Tennis Channel guys have been making some very interesting points about the pro game with the Indian Wells coverage. Essentially, because of the COVID-inspired 2-year roll for ATP points finally beginning to transition to the "normal" 1-year roll in August, we may be witnessing a rapid changing of the guard this Fall. Technically, the process won't conclude until next August, but because very little tennis was played between March of 2000 and the Fall of 2000, the rankings will really return to normal in about 4-5 months - March of 2022. So, all the players who were protected by the 2-year roll, have started to lose points and will continue to lose points. With Nadal and Federer (and Thiem) both out with injuries and Djoker only playing sparingly, there will be some major changes soon. Fed and Thiem will both drop out of the Top 10 after Indian Wells and won't be climbing back until they return. Other "protected" players will be dropping as well.

For Norrie, this can only be helpful. His rise has been since February and all points will remain. He might even qualify for Turin - the ATP Finals. He'll be Top 20 for sure - if not this week, soon thereafter. But it'll also help Rybakov - his grind all Spring was done to earn points within 1 year - and he should also keep rising. And it certainly opens the door for Gray as well - he's already up 500 spots - he could make a major jump too.

On a YTD basis, Norrie is #14. I think that's pretty indicative of where he should really be ranked. And that's not including results from the current Indian Wells... just looking at the rankings, if Norrie gets to semis, I'd expect him to jump to #12 on a YTD basis.

What this is really going to do is open the door for Norrie to have better results at GS, where you really get the points. He's been penalized by the ranking system and has been unranked or ranked at the very end of the draw, resulting in some tough GS draws. If he starts getting ranked inside Top 16, he will be the "favorite" at least through the first couple of rounds.
 

Jared7

Active Member
Yeah, the point being that guys like Norrie and Rybo have been massively disadvantaged by the 2-year roll, but that we're right at the threshold where that's changing into a situation where they are going to be increasingly advantaged by their performance earlier this year. And Gray will be advantaged as well. We could be looking at - come March - Norrie will be in the Top 15 (maybe Top 10); Rybo will be in the 200's (maybe 100's) and Gray will be in the 300's (maybe 200's). This will help each of them - in money and rankings and opportunities to move up a level. And the advantage won't be fully gone until next August. To your point, if Norrie is seeded in the Top 16 in the Slams, that means he's the favorite in the first 3 rounds (Round of 128, 64 and 32) and he wouldn't have to play Nadal or Federer (like this year) until at least the quarters (or beyond) rather than the 3rd rounds.

Making the semis at Indian Wells could be key for Cam - if he can just beat Schwartzman, he could be the British #1 and into the Top 20 and he could be looking at not only Turin but a Top 16 seed at the Aussie.
 

jake102

Active Member
You think Rybo will move that far up? I just feel the results haven’t been there, but I can’t even begin to think about the math down that far.
 

Jared7

Active Member
He's at #349 now and it's closely bunched and I think, with players losing points from 2 years ago from now until March, he's likely to move up at least 50 slots performing at his current level, which would put him into the 200's. I said "maybe the 100's" because he's now (finally) back to the level of getting into Challengers, which provide point opportunities if he can just make the main draws and win a round or 2. However, your skepticism is legitimate and warranted because he got to that level once before (2019) and he promptly lost in the Challenger qualies or first round virtually every single time and earned no points. If that happens again, it won't be the 100's - he'll peak in the low 200's and drop back down.
 

jake102

Active Member
He's at #349 now and it's closely bunched and I think, with players losing points from 2 years ago from now until March, he's likely to move up at least 50 slots performing at his current level, which would put him into the 200's. I said "maybe the 100's" because he's now (finally) back to the level of getting into Challengers, which provide point opportunities if he can just make the main draws and win a round or 2. However, your skepticism is legitimate and warranted because he got to that level once before (2019) and he promptly lost in the Challenger qualies or first round virtually every single time and earned no points. If that happens again, it won't be the 100's - he'll peak in the low 200's and drop back down.

I just scrolled through his past few tournaments and looked at those draws. Seems his current ranking is right on the cusp of making some main draw Challengers without needing qualies. That would be a big step.
 

Jared7

Active Member
And he's risen this year from about #460 to about #350 fighting against the 2-year roll, which protected less active players. And he's done that with quantity, by traveling the planet playing Futures events anywhere and everywhere, without necessarily the quality that Norrie (and Gray) have shown. His points have come from making semis and a final or two, even though he hasn't won any (singles) tourneys. I think he's poised to make it into the 200's at his current performance level, and with purple-colored glasses, I think he might rise further now that he's high enough to avoid the qualie grind at some Challengers. And he's done that on his own, without an entourage because he doesn't have any money (Gray is almost equal in earnings this year already).

But like I said, he could very well peak because of the rankings "advantage" and fall back again starting next August.
 

Jared7

Active Member
Norrie v. Schwartzman is about to start on the Tennis Channel. Cam is wearing purple. Andy Roddick just picked Schwartzman to win.

Cam gets a break right out of the gate. And after a hold, he now leads 2-love.
Norrie is playing McEnroe-esque and as well as I've ever seen him. 3-0, with another (dominant) break.
4-love! Norrie is very hot. Facundo is wearing a TCU shirt and a TCU hat.
5-love! A third consecutive break! The winner gets Dimitrov or Hurkacz in the semis.
6-0! Cam orders a bagel and some cream cheese.
 
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Jared7

Active Member
It'll be Grigor Dimitrov as the semis opponent for the new British #1 player and Top 20 Cam Norrie. Dimitrov beat Hurkacz 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (7-2) yesterday; he's the 23rd seed, he has an ATP ranking of #28 (which, like Norrie, is going up) and in yesterday's stat of the day, he now has 100 Masters 1000 W's. Dimitrov blows hot and cold; sometimes he can beat anyone; sometimes, it's a clunker (like Schwartzman yesterday). If he's on, he's very difficult to beat. He and Norrie have played only once - this year in Miami and Cam won 7-5, 7-5 in the Round of 64. They'll both get a day off and will play the semi-final tomorrow (time TBD).

Alastair Gray was up 2-1 in the 1st set when Ryan James Storrie retired and that caused both to also retire in the doubles at Doha. He just lost 3 and 4 to Valentin Vacherot, the French ex-Aggie with an ATP ranking of 760 today in the quarters. Which is unfortunate because you only earn ATP points in the Futures by making the semis.

Alex Rybakov is now up to ATP#341. I don't know where he is or which will be his next tourney.
 
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Jared7

Active Member
What we may be witnessing in the men's game is not only a changing of the guard from Rafa and Fed to what was assumed to be the next tier of Thiem, Zverev, Tsitsipas, Rublev, Medvedev, Berrettini and maybe Ruud to a completely different tier of rising stars, which could include Norrie. And even Djokovic might be affected if the Aussie goes through with its COVID vaccine requirement and he sticks with his position on not getting it. If Norrie could somehow pull out the title at Indian Wells (he's the highest remaining ranked player and the highest remaining seed), he could make a huge jump and be only 1 spot away from Turin behind Hurkacz, with about 3-4 tourneys remaining before the ATP Finals will be held. If Cam can get by Dimitrov (ATP#28), he'd be favored against either Fritz (ATP#39) or Basilashvili (ATP#36).

But let's not get ahead of ourselves. Dimitrov has WAY more big match experience than Norrie does and even though Cam beat him in a close match in an early round at Miami, a Masters 1000 semi is a different order of magnitude and I think Dimitrov should probably be favored. Plus, watching Ruud demolish Norrie a week or so ago and then watching Schwartzman easily beat Ruud and then Cam wallop Schwartzman shows that anything could happen. This is probably the biggest match of Cam's career so far. It's scheduled for 3:30 p.m. (CDT) tomorrow.
 

jake102

Active Member
Huge match. Huge opportunity with the chaos.

On the other side, I think Bashivali is the hope. Fritz plays Norrie really tough (as do most tall right hangers whose best shot is their backhand, takes away Norrie’s only weapon)
 
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