The Tennis Channel guys have been making some very interesting points about the pro game with the Indian Wells coverage. Essentially, because of the COVID-inspired 2-year roll for ATP points finally beginning to transition to the "normal" 1-year roll in August, we may be witnessing a rapid changing of the guard this Fall. Technically, the process won't conclude until next August, but because very little tennis was played between March of 2000 and the Fall of 2000, the rankings will really return to normal in about 4-5 months - March of 2022. So, all the players who were protected by the 2-year roll, have started to lose points and will continue to lose points. With Nadal and Federer (and Thiem) both out with injuries and Djoker only playing sparingly, there will be some major changes soon. Fed and Thiem will both drop out of the Top 10 after Indian Wells and won't be climbing back until they return. Other "protected" players will be dropping as well.
For Norrie, this can only be helpful. His rise has been since February and all points will remain. He might even qualify for Turin - the ATP Finals. He'll be Top 20 for sure - if not this week, soon thereafter. But it'll also help Rybakov - his grind all Spring was done to earn points within 1 year - and he should also keep rising. And it certainly opens the door for Gray as well - he's already up 500 spots - he could make a major jump too.
On a YTD basis, Norrie is #14. I think that's pretty indicative of where he should really be ranked. And that's not including results from the current Indian Wells... just looking at the rankings, if Norrie gets to semis, I'd expect him to jump to #12 on a YTD basis.
What this is really going to do is open the door for Norrie to have better results at GS, where you really get the points. He's been penalized by the ranking system and has been unranked or ranked at the very end of the draw, resulting in some tough GS draws. If he starts getting ranked inside Top 16, he will be the "favorite" at least through the first couple of rounds.