frogbyproxy
New Member
http://cfn.scout.com/2/967395.html
Spring Preview 2010 - The BCS Breakdown
Considering Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, and Virginia Tech are likely to be the top ranked teams going into the season, are two of them locks to play for the national title? Is the BCS overdue for a little bit of chaos? In the final part of the 20 Spring Questions, what's going to happen in the BCS race?
2010 Spring Preview - No. 1
The 2011 BCS Breakdown
By Peter Fiutak
To the one guy out there reading this after coming out of a coma, here's what happened in the 2010 BCS games.
Alabama beat Texas in the BCS championship, not exactly a shock, and Ohio State beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Interesting, huh? Florida walloped Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl (someone had to win the Big East) and Iowa shut down Georgia Tech in the Orange (someone had to win the ACC). Nothing to crazy, right?
So, obviously, Oklahoma played USC in the Fiesta … no, not quite.
Ah, so the ACC finally got a second team in and Virginia Tech made the trip to Glendale.
Guess again.
No one could've predicted last year at this time that TCU and Boise State would get into the BCS, and no one had Cincinnati, with almost no defensive talent returning, in the Sugar Bowl, but in the end the national title result was cut-and-dry simple considering five teams (Alabama, Texas, Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati) finished the regular season unbeaten.
We all knew before the 2008 season that no one, no matter what, had a shot to get to Pasadena for the whole ball of wax if both the SEC champion and Texas finished the year unbeaten. So for all the craziness that led to the other BCS matchups, the map to the BCS Championship became obvious the second after Tim Tebow held up the crystal trophy in Miami.
This year, it's just as easy knowing that the teams on top of the polls to start the season aren't going to budge as long as they keep winning. That means it's almost 99% certain that if the SEC champion and Ohio State (an almost certain preseason No. 2 in the preseason Coaches' Poll behind Alabama) are unbeaten, they'll play in the 2011 BCS Championship game no matter what else happens. It probably won't matter if Nebraska is beating everyone by 30; it's a Bama-Buckeye date in Glendale if those two mega-powers get through unscathed. Now, if Texas, Oklahoma, or USC obliterates everyone on the way to an unbeaten record, there might be some room to move if Ohio State isn't impressive, but that's unlikely.
But you know it's not going to be that easy.
After running it through the computer simulation over nine million times (meaning I gave this close to three hours of deep thought during my six-year-old chick's dopey dance recital, which in a packed auditorium with no ventilation provided the same clarity as a Chumash sweat lodge), it has all become obvious … we're way overdue for a year of complete and total BCS chaos.
The BCS has been very, very, very lucky since the disasters of 2003 (No. 1 ranked USC being left out of the national title leading a whiny AP to leave the building) and 2004 (Auburn missing out in a three-way battle with Oklahoma and USC), and now the system is ready to be exposed.
Last year, Nebraska almost threw everything into a tizzy by beating Texas, which would've created a mother of all arguments between TCU and Cincinnati to see who would've gotten the right to lose to Alabama in the BCS Championship.
If West Virginia didn't choke to Pitt in 2007, LSU wouldn't have played for the national title (and obviously there would've been a different champion), while Florida wouldn't have gotten the chance to wallop Ohio State in the 2007 BCS Championship game if USC didn't inexplicably gack away a 13-9 loss to UCLA. But everything did fall in place for the SEC and now the league is on a run of four straight national championships and with five in seven seasons.
So the theoretical question becomes this: if the SEC champion finishes the year with one loss, considering the league's success in national championship games, does it get voted into the BCS Championship over an undefeated team from another BCS Conference? The answer is probably no, but it would depend on where that loss came from (like if Florida lost at Alabama but won a rematch in the SEC Championship). Would a one-loss SEC champion play for the national championship over an unbeaten Boise State or a TCU? Probably, and that would open up an ugly can of worms (and woe to the BCS if Senator Orrin Hatch gets to unleash his wrath after an unbeaten Utah gets passed over for a one-loss team from a BCS league). More on the pecking order in a moment.
To take the questions even further, what happens if Boise State and TCU finish unbeaten for a second year in a row and there aren't any unbeaten teams from the BCS leagues? Could we REALLY get a Horned Frog – Bronco BCS Championship, and if not, why not?
What follows will be the early look at what the BCS matchups might be, along with the various scenarios. For a moment in early May, let your mind wander a bit and think about all the different parts and twists to the equation, and you'll see that chaos (what all of us who dream of a logical playoff system are hoping for) might really be closer than you think.
The Likely BCS Scenarios and Factors
Spring Preview 2010 - The BCS Breakdown
Considering Alabama, Ohio State, Boise State, and Virginia Tech are likely to be the top ranked teams going into the season, are two of them locks to play for the national title? Is the BCS overdue for a little bit of chaos? In the final part of the 20 Spring Questions, what's going to happen in the BCS race?
2010 Spring Preview - No. 1
The 2011 BCS Breakdown
By Peter Fiutak
To the one guy out there reading this after coming out of a coma, here's what happened in the 2010 BCS games.
Alabama beat Texas in the BCS championship, not exactly a shock, and Ohio State beat Oregon in the Rose Bowl. Interesting, huh? Florida walloped Cincinnati in the Sugar Bowl (someone had to win the Big East) and Iowa shut down Georgia Tech in the Orange (someone had to win the ACC). Nothing to crazy, right?
So, obviously, Oklahoma played USC in the Fiesta … no, not quite.
Ah, so the ACC finally got a second team in and Virginia Tech made the trip to Glendale.
Guess again.
No one could've predicted last year at this time that TCU and Boise State would get into the BCS, and no one had Cincinnati, with almost no defensive talent returning, in the Sugar Bowl, but in the end the national title result was cut-and-dry simple considering five teams (Alabama, Texas, Boise State, TCU, and Cincinnati) finished the regular season unbeaten.
We all knew before the 2008 season that no one, no matter what, had a shot to get to Pasadena for the whole ball of wax if both the SEC champion and Texas finished the year unbeaten. So for all the craziness that led to the other BCS matchups, the map to the BCS Championship became obvious the second after Tim Tebow held up the crystal trophy in Miami.
This year, it's just as easy knowing that the teams on top of the polls to start the season aren't going to budge as long as they keep winning. That means it's almost 99% certain that if the SEC champion and Ohio State (an almost certain preseason No. 2 in the preseason Coaches' Poll behind Alabama) are unbeaten, they'll play in the 2011 BCS Championship game no matter what else happens. It probably won't matter if Nebraska is beating everyone by 30; it's a Bama-Buckeye date in Glendale if those two mega-powers get through unscathed. Now, if Texas, Oklahoma, or USC obliterates everyone on the way to an unbeaten record, there might be some room to move if Ohio State isn't impressive, but that's unlikely.
But you know it's not going to be that easy.
After running it through the computer simulation over nine million times (meaning I gave this close to three hours of deep thought during my six-year-old chick's dopey dance recital, which in a packed auditorium with no ventilation provided the same clarity as a Chumash sweat lodge), it has all become obvious … we're way overdue for a year of complete and total BCS chaos.
The BCS has been very, very, very lucky since the disasters of 2003 (No. 1 ranked USC being left out of the national title leading a whiny AP to leave the building) and 2004 (Auburn missing out in a three-way battle with Oklahoma and USC), and now the system is ready to be exposed.
Last year, Nebraska almost threw everything into a tizzy by beating Texas, which would've created a mother of all arguments between TCU and Cincinnati to see who would've gotten the right to lose to Alabama in the BCS Championship.
If West Virginia didn't choke to Pitt in 2007, LSU wouldn't have played for the national title (and obviously there would've been a different champion), while Florida wouldn't have gotten the chance to wallop Ohio State in the 2007 BCS Championship game if USC didn't inexplicably gack away a 13-9 loss to UCLA. But everything did fall in place for the SEC and now the league is on a run of four straight national championships and with five in seven seasons.
So the theoretical question becomes this: if the SEC champion finishes the year with one loss, considering the league's success in national championship games, does it get voted into the BCS Championship over an undefeated team from another BCS Conference? The answer is probably no, but it would depend on where that loss came from (like if Florida lost at Alabama but won a rematch in the SEC Championship). Would a one-loss SEC champion play for the national championship over an unbeaten Boise State or a TCU? Probably, and that would open up an ugly can of worms (and woe to the BCS if Senator Orrin Hatch gets to unleash his wrath after an unbeaten Utah gets passed over for a one-loss team from a BCS league). More on the pecking order in a moment.
To take the questions even further, what happens if Boise State and TCU finish unbeaten for a second year in a row and there aren't any unbeaten teams from the BCS leagues? Could we REALLY get a Horned Frog – Bronco BCS Championship, and if not, why not?
What follows will be the early look at what the BCS matchups might be, along with the various scenarios. For a moment in early May, let your mind wander a bit and think about all the different parts and twists to the equation, and you'll see that chaos (what all of us who dream of a logical playoff system are hoping for) might really be closer than you think.
The Likely BCS Scenarios and Factors
