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Sonny’s Resume at TCU

F

FroggleRock

Active Member
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.

Edit: Adding recruiting info…

Recruiting stats for the last 4 classes under Sonny, from ON3:

2024
  • 35th nationally
  • 2nd in Big 12
2025
  • 26th nationally
  • 1st in Big 12
2026
  • 49th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12
2027
  • 54th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12

When you account for the fact that TCU has the 2nd (maybe 3rd) largest NIL budget in the Big 12, not only are they wildly underperforming in HS recruiting, but they have failed to develop the talent from the 2024 and 2025 recruiting classes that were highly touted.

All this to say, when you look at the performance and results both on and off the field, not only is Sonny & Co underachieving, things are getting worse. If you are leadership at TCU, you have got to start asking yourself at what point is enough enough? The program is declining to a point of irrelevance in a time where college football and all college sports alike is in a massive transition period in which we cannot afford to be left behind. Changes need to be made sooner rather than later, but I’m not sure that we have the competent leadership to make the necessary decisions moving forward. I hope to God that I’m wrong.
 
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D

Dadof1Frog

Member
FroggleRock said:
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.
Click to expand...
I can't recall one upset win the past 4+ years other than Michigan in 2022
 
Chongo94

Chongo94

Active Member
FroggleRock said:
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.
Click to expand...
Pretty indicative and informative. I have no doubt Wex will have something to say to you about this post when he inevitably ventures out.
 
BrewingFrog

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
FroggleRock said:
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.

Edit: Adding recruiting info…

Recruiting stats for the last 4 classes under Sonny, from ON3:

2024
  • 35th nationally
  • 2nd in Big 12
2025
  • 26th nationally
  • 1st in Big 12
2026
  • 49th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12
2027
  • 54th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12

When you account for the fact that TCU has the 2nd (maybe 3rd) largest NIL budget in the Big 12, not only are they wildly underperforming in HS recruiting, but they have failed to develop the talent from the 2024 and 2025 recruiting classes that were highly touted.

All this to say, when you look at the performance and results both on and off the field, not only is Sonny & Co underachieving, things are getting worse. If you are leadership at TCU, you have got to start asking yourself at what point is enough enough? The program is declining to a point of irrelevance in a time where college football and all college sports alike is in a massive transition period in which we cannot afford to be left behind. Changes need to be made sooner rather than later, but I’m not sure that we have the competent leadership to make the necessary decisions moving forward. I hope to God that I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
To simply look at the metrics you have presented is to clearly see that Sonny is doing less with more. We used to do more with less, but that's not how it is anymore.

The hell of it is, they gave this buffoon a raise and extension, fully cognizant of what you presented. And if they weren't aware of those numbers, shame on them.
 
P

Potlicker

Active Member
FroggleRock said:
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.

Edit: Adding recruiting info…

Recruiting stats for the last 4 classes under Sonny, from ON3:

2024
  • 35th nationally
  • 2nd in Big 12
2025
  • 26th nationally
  • 1st in Big 12
2026
  • 49th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12
2027
  • 54th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12

When you account for the fact that TCU has the 2nd (maybe 3rd) largest NIL budget in the Big 12, not only are they wildly underperforming in HS recruiting, but they have failed to develop the talent from the 2024 and 2025 recruiting classes that were highly touted.

All this to say, when you look at the performance and results both on and off the field, not only is Sonny & Co underachieving, things are getting worse. If you are leadership at TCU, you have got to start asking yourself at what point is enough enough? The program is declining to a point of irrelevance in a time where college football and all college sports alike is in a massive transition period in which we cannot afford to be left behind. Changes need to be made sooner rather than later, but I’m not sure that we have the competent leadership to make the necessary decisions moving forward. I hope to God that I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
like the ole saying goes on competent leadership............prove it.
 
Sangria Wine

Sangria Wine

Active Member
He is EXACTLY what we already knew he was when we hired him. Go look those same numbers for his whole career. The fact we rushed to fire a legend mid-season so we didn’t “miss out” on SD tells you a lot about the leadership who made that decision. He was flavor of the month and they didn’t even take the time to step back and look at him for what he is. I was screaming it from the rooftops then with very few in my corner back then. I’m just sick of drinking the purple kool-aid being dished out and prefer to think for myself.
 
ShreveFrog

ShreveFrog

Full Member
There's Purple Kool-Aid in support of Sonny? That has to be one lonely corner.
But he did beat Gary's team twice in a row and who knows might've been three if not for Covid. Hence, his hiring at TCU when Gary's time was up. Now Sonny's on the clock. Doesn't look good.
 
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S

Swink

New Member
FroggleRock said:
Info below was collected from the 2023-2025 seasons, and excludes FCS teams and bowl games.

  • Games against FBS schools who finished with a record at or > than 6-6: 17
  • Record against those teams: 5-12
  • Games against FBS schools who finished worse than 6-6 (not bowl eligible): 16
  • Record against those teams: 11-5
  • Record against FBS teams in the last 3 seasons: 16-17
  • Record against teams who finished in the AP Top-25: 1-3

These were his stats at the time of his contract reconstruction earlier this year. How was this resume worth a pay increase and extension? If you include this season, he is now 16-19 against FBS teams since the end of the 2022 season.

Edit: Adding recruiting info…

Recruiting stats for the last 4 classes under Sonny, from ON3:

2024
  • 35th nationally
  • 2nd in Big 12
2025
  • 26th nationally
  • 1st in Big 12
2026
  • 49th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12
2027
  • 54th nationally
  • 9th in Big 12

When you account for the fact that TCU has the 2nd (maybe 3rd) largest NIL budget in the Big 12, not only are they wildly underperforming in HS recruiting, but they have failed to develop the talent from the 2024 and 2025 recruiting classes that were highly touted.

All this to say, when you look at the performance and results both on and off the field, not only is Sonny & Co underachieving, things are getting worse. If you are leadership at TCU, you have got to start asking yourself at what point is enough enough? The program is declining to a point of irrelevance in a time where college football and all college sports alike is in a massive transition period in which we cannot afford to be left behind. Changes need to be made sooner rather than later, but I’m not sure that we have the competent leadership to make the necessary decisions moving forward. I hope to God that I’m wrong.
Click to expand...
 
F

Frozen Frog

Active Member
Sonny was known as a mastermind of the transfer portal and NIL. Other schools are now killing us in this area. They have GMs.

I know Dykes likes to donate money to TCU. Do you think this includes his buyout?
 
S

Swink

New Member
Excellent information, FroggieRock. Excellent information!

I hope Budde has enough moxie to act on this information because this is his responsibility. (I firmly believe in letting the person responsible make the decision and not pawn it off on others.) Personally I have nothing against Coach Dykes, but he simply sucks at his job. And he has had more than sufficient time in his position; it's not like he needs time to learn. So if Budde ignores the obvious, then Budde is failing miserably at HIS job. PEOPLE HAVE TO BE HELD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR FAILURES, JUST AS THEY SHOULD BE ADEQUATELY RECOGNIZED FOR THEIR SUCCESSES. IT'S UNFORTUNATE THAT ALL WE'VE SEEN FROM DYKES AND HIS STAFF ARE FAILURES!

DO YOUR JOB, BUDDE; DO YOUR JOB!
 
S

Swink

New Member
Sangria Wine said:
He is EXACTLY what we already knew he was when we hired him. Go look those same numbers for his whole career. The fact we rushed to fire a legend mid-season so we didn’t “miss out” on SD tells you a lot about the leadership who made that decision. He was flavor of the month and they didn’t even take the time to step back and look at him for what he is. I was screaming it from the rooftops then with very few in my corner back then. I’m just sick of drinking the purple kool-aid being dished out and prefer to think for myself.
Click to expand...
You are so correct. In Sonny's case, the apple does not fall far from the tree. I told Donati the very same thing in multiple emails. Sonny's "role model" was Spike.
 
businessofsport

businessofsport

Guest

Some Things to Consider Making A 2026 Buyout "Unlikely"​


How buyouts work
A buyout is the liquidated damages a school owes when it fires a coach without cause. Performance is not cause. Criminal activity, NCAA violations, and similar serious behavioral issues are causes.

Coaching buyouts are usually calculated either as a percentage of the guaranteed compensation left on the contract, or as a fixed amount that shrinks over the life of the deal. Most top contracts now guarantee at least 85% of the remaining money. That is now the market standard when coaches are represented by top agents, and Sonny Dykes has one of the best agents in America.

Before I proceed: all of us, in his shoes, would do the exact same thing. Picture it. You're 56, in your fourth head-coaching job, and a super agent is advocating for the biggest possible payout from a private university whose expectations outpace its donor base. Conference rivals have a Cody Campbell or a Ryan Smith. Your school just went back to the same donors heading into the Alamo Bowl to keep a quarterback already earning a reported $2 million, and still couldn't hold him. Josh Hoover entered the portal Dec. 18 and landed at Indiana on Jan. 4, the school he had first committed to out of high school. Hoover's agent did his job.

Now picture your agent's pitch if you're Dykes: "You'll be past 60 by the end of this deal, and it may be your last big contract. Congress is rewriting the rules of college sports, and some senators want to cap coaching pay. The AD who hired you left for South Carolina, the chancellor who hired you has stepped down, and the board has a new chair. You've lost your quarterback, and you've lost your offensive coordinator to the SEC. The next crop of coaches is younger and coming from bigger programs, and you don't have a Cody Campbell-sized NIL fund behind you. Now is the time." None of us would turn down the chance to strike a new deal if we were in his shoes.

Back to the current market mechanics of coaching buyouts - examples:
  • Kelly (LSU): 90% of remaining pay using the Armstrong contract, about $54 million.
  • Stoops (Kentucky): 75%.
  • Stein (Kentucky's first-time hire): 70%, with $100,000 annual raises built in.
Two contract terms change the real cost:
  • Offset clauses let the school subtract what the coach earns at his next job.
  • Payment timing matters: some buyouts are paid as a lump sum, others in installments over years.
TCU has done this before: it paid GMFP a one-time $11.45 million separation payment in 2021.

Dykes model: An estimate
The new deal TCU AD Mike Buddie, Chancellor Daniel Pullin, and the Board of Trustees agreed to in April reportedly runs through at least 2030.

TCU is private and doesn't disclose terms, but Dykes was already earning more than $7 million a year under the old contract. Extensions at this level add annual raises and stronger buyout protection for the coach. Dykes has one of the most experienced negotiators in the business behind him: he is represented by Trace Armstrong of Athletes First. Armstrong is a former NFL Players Association president who joined Athletes First in 2016, and his client list also includes Ohio State's Ryan Day. Before that, he headed CAA Sports' football coaching division, where his clients included Urban Meyer and Mike McCarthy. When he moved to Athletes First, he represented about 20 Division I head coaches, among them Meyer, Dana Holgorsen, Kevin Sumlin and Tom Herman. Armstrong was also Brian Kelly's agent when Kelly signed his 10-year LSU contract in 2021. After firing Kelly in October 2025, LSU agreed to pay the roughly $54 million buyout written into that Armstrong deal.

TCU doesn't disclose terms. This model assumes $8 million a year, a contract running through the 2030 season, and no offset. Just be clear that extensions deliver better terms for a coach than their prior agreement, not worse, especially with an agent like Armstrong. Coming off an Alamo Bowl win, Dykes was in the driver's seat.

Buyout = liquidated-damages percentage × (annual pay × years remaining)

Fired afterYears leftRemaining payAt 70%At 85%At 100%
2026 season4$32.0M$22.4M$27.2M$32.0M
2027 season3$24.0M$16.8M$20.4M$24.0M
2028 season2$16.0M$11.2M$13.6M$16.0M
2029 season1$8.0M$5.6M$6.8M$8.0M

If the deal actually runs through 2031, the after-2026 figure rises to about $34 million at 85%. An offset would cut it by whatever Dykes earns in his next job.

Why TCU stated we locked Dykes up:
TCU extended Dykes on April 3, 2026, three months after the Frogs beat No. 16 USC 30-27 in overtime in the Alamo Bowl. Athletic director Mike Buddie said, "competing for national and Big 12 titles takes the right leader, and Dykes is that person."

Market timing mattered too. That same winter, Penn State made Sitake an eight-figure offer. Coaches have the most leverage right after a bowl win in a hot market, and extending in the spring kept Dykes off the next December's coaching market.
 
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businessofsport

businessofsport

Guest
The true cost of a change:
The buyout is only the first check. A school also has to:
  • Pay out the fired staff, not just Dykes.
  • Hire a coach, ideally one without a big buyout owed to his current school.
  • Fund a new staff pool.
Kentucky is the real-world example. It owes Stoops $37.7 million in severance while paying Stein $28.5 million over five years. That's about $66 million committed to one coaching change.

A roughly $30 million buyout is really a $60 million decision.

Things for TCU to weigh:
Board of Trustees Chair Kit Moncrief and the Board will be making these calls in the same crowded market as every other school considering a change. If private donors can't cover the full cost of staying competitive, does TCU reorder priorities elsewhere in the university to protect the front porch?


No Doubt that Moncrief & Co Are Considering Next Season:​

TCU's 2027 schedule is only partly set. The nonconference games are known, but the Big 12 hasn't released dates for conference games yet.

Nonconference (all at Amon G. Carter Stadium)
  • Opener: Alcorn State. It moved to the opener after Stanford canceled its game because of the ACC's new nine-game conference schedule.
  • Sept. 11: North Texas, tentatively. It's the first meeting between the two since 2002.
  • Sept. 18: Sam Houston.
Big 12 opponents (from the league's 2024–2027 scheduling matrix)
  • Home: Arizona State, Texas Tech, Baylor, Houston
  • Away: Utah, Colorado, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, Cincinnati
That's seven home games and five road games. The toughest stretch on paper is the trip to Utah and Texas Tech's visit to Fort Worth.

The Big 12 released that matrix in 2023, so the opponents could still change before the official schedule comes out. The 2026 schedule followed it exactly, which is a good sign. The Big 12 typically announces dates and kickoff times over the winter.
 
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S

Swink

New Member
Three simple questions to whomever reads this post:
1. Are YOU proud of the current status of the T.C.U. football program where it stands right now?
2. Or are YOU embarrassed?
3. And WHY do YOU feel this way?
 
Chongo94

Chongo94

Active Member
businessofsport said:

Some Things to Consider Making A 2026 Buyout "Unlikely"​


How buyouts work
A buyout is the liquidated damages a school owes when it fires a coach without cause. Performance is not cause. Criminal activity, NCAA violations, and similar serious behavioural issues are causes.

Coaching buyouts are usually calculated either as a percentage of the guaranteed compensation left on the contract, or as a fixed amount that shrinks over the life of the deal. Most top contracts now guarantee at least 85% of the remaining money. This is now a market standard when coaches are represented by top agents. Sonny Dykes has one of the best agents in America.

Recent examples:
  • Kelly (LSU): 90% of remaining pay using the Armstrong contract, about $54 million.
  • Stoops (Kentucky): 75%.
  • Stein (Kentucky's first-time hire): 70%, with $100,000 annual raises built in.
Two contract terms change the real cost:
  • Offset clauses let the school subtract what the coach earns at his next job.
  • Payment timing matters: some buyouts are paid as a lump sum, others in installments over years.
TCU has done this before: it paid GMFP a one-time $11.45 million separation payment in 2021.

Dykes model: An estimate
The new deal TCU AD Mike Buddie, Chancellor Daniel Pullin, and the Board of Trustees agreed to in April reportedly runs through at least 2030.

TCU is private and doesn't disclose terms, but Dykes was already earning more than $7 million a year under the old contract. Extensions at this level add annual raises and stronger buyout protection for the coach. Dykes has one of the most experienced negotiators in the business behind him: he is represented by Trace Armstrong of Athletes First. Armstrong is a former NFL Players Association president who joined Athletes First in 2016, and his client list also includes Ohio State's Ryan Day. Before that, he headed CAA Sports' football coaching division, where his clients included Urban Meyer and Mike McCarthy. When he moved to Athletes First, he represented about 20 Division I head coaches, among them Meyer, Dana Holgorsen, Kevin Sumlin and Tom Herman. Armstrong was also Brian Kelly's agent when Kelly signed his 10-year LSU contract in 2021. After firing Kelly in October 2025, LSU agreed to pay the roughly $54 million buyout written into that Armstrong deal.

TCU doesn't disclose terms. This model assumes $8 million a year, a contract running through the 2030 season, and no offset. Just be clear that extensions deliver better terms for a coach than their prior agreement, not worse, especially with an agent like Armstrong. Coming off an Alamo Bowl win, Dykes was in the driver's seat.

Buyout = liquidated-damages percentage × (annual pay × years remaining)

Fired afterYears leftRemaining payAt 70%At 85%At 100%
2026 season4$32.0M$22.4M$27.2M$32.0M
2027 season3$24.0M$16.8M$20.4M$24.0M
2028 season2$16.0M$11.2M$13.6M$16.0M
2029 season1$8.0M$5.6M$6.8M$8.0M

If the deal actually runs through 2031, the after-2026 figure rises to about $34 million at 85%. An offset would cut it by whatever Dykes earns in his next job.

Why TCU stated we locked Dykes up:
TCU extended Dykes on April 3, 2026, three months after the Frogs beat No. 16 USC 30-27 in overtime in the Alamo Bowl. Athletic director Mike Buddie said, "competing for national and Big 12 titles takes the right leader, and Dykes is that person."

Market timing mattered too. That same winter, Penn State made Sitake an eight-figure offer. Coaches have the most leverage right after a bowl win in a hot market, and extending in the spring kept Dykes off the next December's coaching market.

The true cost of a change:
The buyout is only the first check. A school also has to:
  • Pay out the fired staff, not just Dykes.
  • Hire a coach, ideally one without a big buyout owed to his current school.
  • Fund a new staff pool.
Kentucky is the real-world example. It owes Stoops $37.7 million in severance while paying Stein $28.5 million over five years. That's about $66 million committed to one coaching change.

A roughly $30 million buyout is really a $60 million decision.
Click to expand...
This depresses me greatly.
 
Froggy Style

Froggy Style

Active Member
Chongo94 said:
This depresses me greatly.
Click to expand...
It shouldn't, there is always going to be money to pay a coach in today's world. Extending a coach is just a move made to signal to recruits they will be around. TCU brings in too much money not to use it to keep such an important part of marketing the school going. If they're going to let that dry up (they can't/won't), then growing the school to 13k students was not a good move. Similar to SMU going many years without revenue to be in a big conference, TCU may have to go a year without Revenue, using the funds to remove Sonny and get a real coach.
 
P

Potlicker

Active Member
Sangria Wine said:
He is EXACTLY what we already knew he was when we hired him. Go look those same numbers for his whole career. The fact we rushed to fire a legend mid-season so we didn’t “miss out” on SD tells you a lot about the leadership who made that decision. He was flavor of the month and they didn’t even take the time to step back and look at him for what he is. I was screaming it from the rooftops then with very few in my corner back then. I’m just sick of drinking the purple kool-aid being dished out and prefer to think for myself.
Click to expand...
So true and I believe that most of us are tired of the cheerleading and then responding with, I never saw it coming, etc. In reality, it's hard to be optimistic for the football program as Kit Moncrief and Pullin will be making the decisions at the top and so far, their athletic understanding of the football program is somewhat embarrassing. Do any of us really think they can navigate us through this difficult period to end up with a favorable outcome?
 
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