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Some interesting numbers about Coach Sonny Dykes

Frognosticator

Frognosticator

Tier 1
So, when I saw the spread for the coming game against BYU, I was shocked. TCU is only 6.5 point dogs against a top 10 team that appears to be firing on all cylinders. How could that be? Did Vegas not see the abysmal product the frogs were putting on the field? It just didn't make sense.

Until I looked at the numbers. Quite interesting.

Taking the last 10 years of SD's coaching record (including the 4 games this year), he is 44-12 at home (21-6 at TCU, 23-6 at SMU) and 28-26 on the road (14-11 at TCU, which I include Dublin, and 14-15 at SMU).

More interesting is the scoring margin in the losses at home vs road (I will call it MOL).

At home, Dykes' average MOL is 9.1 (4.0 at TCU, 14.2 at SMU)
On the road, the average MOL is 14.2 (15.4 at TCU, 13.2 at SMU)

So, for whatever reason, Dykes has far more losses on the road than at home (not completely surprising), and the losses at TCU are far worse on the road than at home (a MOL of 15.4 vs 4.0, a bit more surprising).

So, I think this might explain this weekend's spread of +6.5.

Thoughts?
 
P

Potlicker

Active Member
Frognosticator said:
So, when I saw the spread for the coming game against BYU, I was shocked. TCU is only 6.5 point dogs against a top 10 team that appears to be firing on all cylinders. How could that be? Did Vegas not see the abysmal product the frogs were putting on the field? It just didn't make sense.

Until I looked at the numbers. Quite interesting.

Taking the last 10 years of SD's coaching record (including the 4 games this year), he is 44-12 at home (21-6 at TCU, 23-6 at SMU) and 28-26 on the road (14-11 at TCU, which I include Dublin, and 14-15 at SMU).

More interesting is the scoring margin in the losses at home vs road (I will call it MOL).

At home, Dykes' average MOL is 9.1 (4.0 at TCU, 14.2 at SMU)
On the road, the average MOL is 14.2 (15.4 at TCU, 13.2 at SMU)

So, for whatever reason, Dykes has far more losses on the road than at home (not completely surprising), and the losses at TCU are far worse on the road than at home (a MOL of 15.4 vs 4.0, a bit more surprising).

So, I think this might explain this weekend's spread of +6.5.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
IMO, the worst thing that could happen to us is if we win this game or TT. We could never get rid of him this season or probably the next.
 
M

Mean Purple

Active Member
Frognosticator said:
So, when I saw the spread for the coming game against BYU, I was shocked. TCU is only 6.5 point dogs against a top 10 team that appears to be firing on all cylinders. How could that be? Did Vegas not see the abysmal product the frogs were putting on the field? It just didn't make sense.

Until I looked at the numbers. Quite interesting.

Taking the last 10 years of SD's coaching record (including the 4 games this year), he is 44-12 at home (21-6 at TCU, 23-6 at SMU) and 28-26 on the road (14-11 at TCU, which I include Dublin, and 14-15 at SMU).

More interesting is the scoring margin in the losses at home vs road (I will call it MOL).

At home, Dykes' average MOL is 9.1 (4.0 at TCU, 14.2 at SMU)
On the road, the average MOL is 14.2 (15.4 at TCU, 13.2 at SMU)

So, for whatever reason, Dykes has far more losses on the road than at home (not completely surprising), and the losses at TCU are far worse on the road than at home (a MOL of 15.4 vs 4.0, a bit more surprising).

So, I think this might explain this weekend's spread of +6.5.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
That's discipline (would be interesting to see the difference in penalty yards coughed up between on the road and at home). As well as mistakes. Can't turn the ball over on the road.
On the road, the 2nd half game plan seems to go to crap. (I get it ... a new offense. But our guys had trouble under tape fingers in the second half. Usually would have an entire quarter of no points.)

but you can't give up north of 80 yards on penalties and expect a successful outcome on the road.
 
S

SW toad

Active Member
With the TCU staff not understanding geographical diversity in recruiting, it is probably safe to say that this is one of the more Texas content rosters ever. TCU always had 2-3 kids from each of the following states:
Louisiana, California, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Florida and Mississippi. For a few years we had players from some of the Midwest states granted it was only 1 or 2 every other year. Not so much anymore.

Player's parents sometimes want their kids to play 500-1000 miles away. TCU has a good reputation nationally and TCU has failed miserably in this regard. If you have more players from wide and far places, there is a better chance they have flown on a plane than if the kids who live within a 2-hour drive.

I would like to see the itinerary for Ft Worth to Orlando. Did they gum it up like they did with Dublin??

And b4 you nitpick at Connecticut, without responding to the other 95% TCU at least had a guy Lucas Niang drafted in middle rounds from there.
 
Paint It Purple

Paint It Purple

Active Member
SW toad said:
With the TCU staff not understanding geographical diversity in recruiting, it is probably safe to say that this is one of the more Texas content rosters ever. TCU always had 2-3 kids from each of the following states:
Louisiana, California, Oklahoma, Connecticut, Florida and Mississippi. For a few years we had players from some of the Midwest states granted it was only 1 or 2 every other year. Not so much anymore.

Player's parents sometimes want their kids to play 500-1000 miles away. TCU has a good reputation nationally and TCU has failed miserably in this regard. If you have more players from wide and far places, there is a better chance they have flown on a plane than if the kids who live within a 2-hour drive.

I would like to see the itinerary for Ft Worth to Orlando. Did they gum it up like they did with Dublin??

And b4 you nitpick at Connecticut, without responding to the other 95% TCU at least had a guy Lucas Niang drafted in middle rounds from there.
Click to expand...
"Did they gum it up like they did with Dublin??"

Explain, please
 
S

SW toad

Active Member
Paint It Purple said:
"Did they gum it up like they did with Dublin??"

Explain, please
Click to expand...
If you go to the search feature top rt corner and type circadian, the last 2-3 pages of the Buddie greedy thread will pop up related to team travel in detail.

Was hoping to get feedback on recruiting nationwide and home/road record any thoughts?
 
4 Oaks Frog

4 Oaks Frog

Active Member
Frognosticator said:
So, when I saw the spread for the coming game against BYU, I was shocked. TCU is only 6.5 point dogs against a top 10 team that appears to be firing on all cylinders. How could that be? Did Vegas not see the abysmal product the frogs were putting on the field? It just didn't make sense.

Until I looked at the numbers. Quite interesting.

Taking the last 10 years of SD's coaching record (including the 4 games this year), he is 44-12 at home (21-6 at TCU, 23-6 at SMU) and 28-26 on the road (14-11 at TCU, which I include Dublin, and 14-15 at SMU).

More interesting is the scoring margin in the losses at home vs road (I will call it MOL).

At home, Dykes' average MOL is 9.1 (4.0 at TCU, 14.2 at SMU)
On the road, the average MOL is 14.2 (15.4 at TCU, 13.2 at SMU)

So, for whatever reason, Dykes has far more losses on the road than at home (not completely surprising), and the losses at TCU are far worse on the road than at home (a MOL of 15.4 vs 4.0, a bit more surprising).

So, I think this might explain this weekend's spread of +6.5.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...
That might be the stats in Sonny’s historical reality, but not in his current reality. In this game, in this reality I thinks +6.5 spread is a tad low. I’m thinking more like +18.
If byu can score as much as 21 points against the Frogs, I think byu can cover. Why?…because I think from what our offense has shown thus far against lessor P4 teams, we don’t get close enough for a 3 pointer in this game.
Gosh, I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am. Sad Face…
 
BrewingFrog

BrewingFrog

Was I supposed to type something here?
4 Oaks Frog said:
That might be the stats in Sonny’s historical reality, but not in his current reality. In this game, in this reality I thinks +6.5 spread is a tad low. I’m thinking more like +18.
If byu can score as much as 21 points against the Frogs, I think byu can cover. Why?…because I think from what our offense has shown thus far against lessor P4 teams, we don’t get close enough for a 3 pointer in this game.
Gosh, I hope I am wrong, but I don’t think I am. Sad Face…
Click to expand...
Oh, we might, but going for it on 4th down is so much more attractive!
 

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