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SI: Cheez-It Bowl Preview: Cal Defense Should Control Game Against TCU

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dajo9

Member
TopFrog said:
SI: Cheez-It Bowl Preview: Cal Defense Should Control Game Against TCU

By ZACHARY COHEN

Cheez-It Bowl – TCU Horned Frogs vs. California Golden Bears (-1.0)

Three things to know before betting on TCU-California:
1. While TCU is 6-3 straight up in its last nine bowl games, the Horned Frogs are just 2-7 against the spread. Meanwhile, the Golden Bears are playing in their first bowl game since Jared Goff lit up Air Force for 467 yards with six touchdowns and no picks back in 2015. Current head coach Justin Wilcox has breathed new life into this Cal program, and his players will be fired up to earn a win for him here. Cal also happens to be an impressive 9-2 against the spread in the second half of the season over the last two seasons and 10-2 against the spread after playing three straight conference games in that span. Combine that with the fact that TCU is just 12-26 against the spread in all lined games over the last three seasons and it becomes clearer why the Golden Bears should win this one.

Read more at https://www.si.com/college-football...owl-tcu-california-odds-picks-betting-preview
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The writer put his Cal pick at a "High" level of confidence. That's crazy to me. Patrick Laird is everything that is good about college football (a walk-on whose touchdown celebration is to mimic opening a book) but Patrick Laird is NOT going to "wear the Horned Frogs out".
 
LisaLT

LisaLT

Active Member
I don't know what to expect except a box of Cheez-Its upon entry to this game.

Hope we score enough to win. That is all.
 
Frog-in-law1995

Frog-in-law1995

Active Member
tetonfrog said:
Reminds me of the Michigan State bowl game several years ago. Two good defensive coaches with two mediocre offenses.................whoever drops the punt loses this one, too.
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BAD WORDS!!!

I was in Santa Fe with extended family for Christmas and happened to walk by the hotel bar’s TV right when Dawson fumbled. Unpleasant memory.

Will also be in Santa Fe this year. Poor planning on my part. Oops.
 
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Eight

Eight

Member
Frog-in-law1995 said:
Trying that joke again. Probably should let it go.
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ATC Frog

ATC Frog

Active Member
Todd D. said:
If you can make it down to Albuquerque shoot me a PM, we have a Frog group getting together for the game.
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I miss that group. Glad to see that it’s grown in numbers since we moved away!

I don’t miss being an 11 hour drive from frog football in person though. A 3 hour drive is much more tolerable.
 
helcap

helcap

Full Member
Bizarro Frog said:
This feels like he is writing to justify the bet he laid down a week back and now needs to convince himself it’s still okay. For a team with nothing to play for the Frogs played their arses off trying to get there. If you are going to stage a defensive battle I know which coach I am picking for my team. Not sure how many weapons we have left on offense but I would wager we are faster than Cal. They will not risk kicking or punting to Reagor so that will limit them on special teams.

I like the Frogs to lock down Cal and maybe score on D. They will get the ball to Reagor in space then when Cal is doing everything they can to stop him another player on offense will break the game open.
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I am not sure we should risk that either, but for other reasons
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
Eight said:
so half the paragraph posted above is about how tcu and cal have performed versus the gambling lines which might be important to some on this site, but i don't give a [ steaming pile of Orgeron ] and in all honesty i fail to see how any of that matters when it comes down to who actually will win the game.

maybe he might have addressed that further down in his work, but you have to give me more than who did or did not cover during the last 3 years.

dude must not understand cgmfp's mindset of winning by 1
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Bizarro Frog said:
Covering the spread in this one does not matter since it’s a pickem. Only need to win which is what Coach P does best against the PAC 12. He is undefeated correct?
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I think his point was that since the game is a pick em, whoever wins the spread wins the game. That is why he is using historical spread numbers to determine the winner.
 
Limp Lizard

Limp Lizard

Full Member
We should be in much better health by bowl time that we were most of the season. Except for the long run against tOSU, Anderson just didn't seem to be himself this year. Sewo should be healed too I hope. And lots and lots more reps for Mule and the underclassmen receivers.

Like someone earlier said, 2 or 3 possessions to get the defense going, then look out.

TCU played 5 (#1, 8, 9, 14, 16) of the top 20 scoring offenses, Cali 2 (#.15, 17). Guy is just biased or hasn't done his homework.
 
LVH

LVH

Active Member
CountryFrog said:
I don't care much for "analysis" based on how teams have done against the spread in the last 26 or 46 or 600 games. That doesn't really seem like analysis to me. Might as well just say what the two teams actual records are over any period of time. It's information that anyone can get at any time and doesn't actually impact anything in THIS game.
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The sad part is that there are so many suckers out there who think arbitrary sample size trends matter when it comes to betting.
 

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