QUOTE(RSF @ Jun 15 2010, 10:35 AM) [snapback]579618[/snapback]
Fox makes more sense to me. They own the current contract, its expires next year (the ESPN deal is a secondary one and expires in 2016), and as Chip Brown inadvertently let slip on Galloway yesterday, they felt like they couldn't afford to let that much inventory slip away. So, like ESPN with the ACC, it appears they are willing to overpay to keep what they've got.
It's all speculation, but I read an article talking about how Fox was likely to be the primary network for the new PAC-16 (since they are already heavily involved in both the PAC 10 and Big 12, and Rupert has a big presence on the west coast), which would have given them college football market dominance in 2 of the 4 primary U.S. time zones and a large chunk of the the central time zone with the Texas schools and the Oklahoma schools. And, this wouldn't just be the ancillary games currently shown on FSN, but the national type games shown on ABC. The article suggested that ESPN paid a premium to prevent Fox from grabbing a large foothold in games of national interst.
To me, Fox would have benefited by letting Texas trim the fat from the Big 12 and move the marketable teams to the PAC-16, whereby Fox could just sign one deal with the PAC-16. If it is Fox, then they just re-upped with the Big 12-2 and paid a premium for one game per year (UT v. OU) that people actually care about in order to continue to show crap games in the midwest that no one cares about (outside of that sparsely populated region). I just don't get that because they would have gotten a lot of the noteworthy PAC 16 games if they would have encouraged the expansion without a significant reduction in inventory of the crappy games they currently show (that inventory would actually improve in quality with the expansion in my opinion).
I know you are on top of this stuff and I have started to tune all of this out and am not paying as close of attention to the articles coming out, so I am just passing along the little I have read and am not trying argue any particular theory or point. If there is something out there definitively talking about this I would be interested in learning about it.