• The KillerFrogs

Ohio State opens as 12-point favorite over TCU

IdiotsAlert

IdiotsAlert

Member
Ron Swanson said:
The opening spread is based strictly on where the teams rank in the computer strength models. The computers think that OSU is 12 points better than we are.
Click to expand...

These are Chris Andrews numbers with help from Vinny Magliulo. Both are very good researchers and do not rely on computer rankings.
 
IdiotsAlert

IdiotsAlert

Member
FWIW GOY betting was only available at South Point property and you were allowed 3 bets $1,000 minimum. Window was only open 1 hour. Mostly professional bettors and UT saw a lot of the action so expect the spread to open for that game at UT -4 or more when weekly lines start.
 
IdiotsAlert

IdiotsAlert

Member
Storms coming and am bored so a little more miscellany:

Last season largest closing line against TCU was +9.5 against OSU.....

No line on the Southern A&M game (So AM LY OOC played So Miss and lost 45-0 , also lost to UTSA 51-17)

Win totals for B12:

Oklahoma
Over 10.5 (-110)
Under 10.5 (-120)

Oklahoma State
Over 8.5 (-115)
Under 8.5 (-115)

TCU
Over 8 (-115)
Under 8 (-115)

Kansas State
Over 7 (-110)
Under 7 (-120)

West Virginia
Over 7 (-120)
Under 7 (-110)

Texas
Over 7 (-105)
Under 7 (-125)

Iowa State
Over 6 (-110)
Under 6 (-120)

Texas Tech
Over 5.5 (-120)
Under 5.5 (-110)

Baylor
Over 5 (-115)
Under 5 (-115)

Kansas
Over 3 (-115)
Under 3 (-115)
 
W

Wexahu

Full Member
Give me the under on Kansas and Oklahoma. Have no idea who Kansas can beat in conference, and that's if they go 3-0 in OOC which seems not probable. And 10.5 wins is a pretty high bar, OU can be really good and still end up with "only" 10 wins with a bad break or two.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
IdiotsAlert said:
These are Chris Andrews numbers with help from Vinny Magliulo. Both are very good researchers and do not rely on computer rankings.
Click to expand...
Well if you look at their spreads for Ohio State’s 2018 games against both TCU (-12) and Penn State (-1.5), they are both extremely close to last year‘s final Sagarin rankings (Ohio St is a 97.15, Penn St is a 95.65, TCU is an 87.39).

Opening Vegas lines are almost always within a couple points of Sagarin’s rankings. I’m sure the guys at South Point Casino who released these spreads have their own computer models with slight variations, but watch every spread come out every week, it’s extremely predictable and it’s tied very closely to the Sagarin ratings.
 
4

4th. down

Active Member
MinFrog said:
I would have guesses 9.5. 12 seems high with how good TCU's defense will be. Should be able to keep them in the 20's, just depends on if we can score.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I had it at 9 1/2, so yes it does seem a little high but will probably drop by game time. It would really surprise me to see OSU in the mid 30's.
 
TX_Krötenechse

TX_Krötenechse

Active Member
MinFrog said:
I would have guesses 9.5. 12 seems high with how good TCU's defense will be. Should be able to keep them in the 20's, just depends on if we can score.
Click to expand...
I expect TCU to have a stout defense, but we are replacing our all-time leading tackler, two starting safeties, our best corner, and our team leader in sacks. On paper there’s a lot of reasons to be down on TCU’s defense.
 
Spike

Spike

Full Member
TX_Krötenechse said:
I expect TCU to have a stout defense, but we are replacing our all-time leading tackler, two starting safeties, our best corner, and our team leader in sacks. On paper there’s a lot of reasons to be down on TCU’s defense.
Click to expand...

I'm glad it's the 3rd game and not the first.
 
F

FrogLifeYo

Active Member
TX_Krötenechse said:
I expect TCU to have a stout defense, but we are replacing our all-time leading tackler, two starting safeties, our best corner, and our team leader in sacks. On paper there’s a lot of reasons to be down on TCU’s defense.
Click to expand...


I actually think we will be better at safety this year despite losing our two starters and we have the talent aand depth to wash at DE/LB...Corner is the real concern.
 
IdiotsAlert

IdiotsAlert

Member
Ron Swanson said:
Well if you look at their spreads for Ohio State’s 2018 games against both TCU (-12) and Penn State (-1.5), they are both extremely close to last year‘s final Sagarin rankings (Ohio St is a 97.15, Penn St is a 95.65, TCU is an 87.39).

Opening Vegas lines are almost always within a couple points of Sagarin’s rankings. I’m sure the guys at South Point Casino who released these spreads have their own computer models with slight variations, but watch every spread come out every week, it’s extremely predictable and it’s tied very closely to the Sagarin ratings.
Click to expand...


Other games
Georgia -11 vs SoCar (GA 96.7 SoCar 78.31)
Iowa -7 vs IOSt (Iowa 83.8 ISU 81.48)
PennSt -14 vs Pitt (PSU 95.65 Pitt 74.67)
Ala -20 vs Miss (Ala 101.8 Miss 71.92)
UCF -11 vs NoCar (UCF 87.11 NoCar 68.27)
Mich -3.5 vs Penn St (Mich 81.47 PSU 95.65)
Ohio St -6 vs Mich St (OSU 97.15 MSU 82.92)

More than 70% of the GOYs are off by more than a few points.
 
Purp

Purp

Active Member
Just
netty2424 said:
Interesting to okie st that high up. Starting a new QB and they're best receiver is now in the league.
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About every team in the league has a new QB starting. Except for maybe Texas, but they wish they had someone different who hasn't already had 17 concussions.
 
Ron Swanson

Ron Swanson

Full Member
IdiotsAlert said:
Other games
Georgia -11 vs SoCar (GA 96.7 SoCar 78.31)
Iowa -7 vs IOSt (Iowa 83.8 ISU 81.48)
PennSt -14 vs Pitt (PSU 95.65 Pitt 74.67)
Ala -20 vs Miss (Ala 101.8 Miss 71.92)
UCF -11 vs NoCar (UCF 87.11 NoCar 68.27)
Mich -3.5 vs Penn St (Mich 81.47 PSU 95.65)
Ohio St -6 vs Mich St (OSU 97.15 MSU 82.92)

More than 70% of the GOYs are off by more than a few points.
Click to expand...
Well they are obviously taking into account what has been lost and what is being gained from last year’s teams as well. The first games of the year are a bit different because there’s no real data from that year’s actual teams, but it’s all based off of computer strength models and then going from there.
 
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