Official 2019 Degenerate Gambler Thread

[berryfrog95]

Here's my action I locked in earlier this week:
8/30
- Rice +21.5 @ Army
- Wake -3.5 vs. Utah St
- Col -13.5 vs. CSU
8/31
- Bama -35 vs Duke (the line has since moved several points in Duke's favor)
- Parlay: U53 for BSU@FSU; U56 Auburn vs Oregon
- Oregon +3.5 vs. Auburn
- Georgia Southern +28 @ LSU
- La Tech +21.5 @ UT
9/1
- Houston +21.5 @ OU

Love Wake and the last 4 plays

 

[Bob Sugar]

I read that ESPN’s FPI, which ESPN acts as if it’s gospel, went 15-30 against the spread in week 1 for games that had 2 FBS teams.

Ouch

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

I read that ESPN’s FPI, which ESPN acts as if it’s gospel, went 15-30 against the spread in week 1 for games that had 2 FBS teams.

Ouch

This thread didn’t do much better.

 

[LVH]

I read that ESPN’s FPI, which ESPN acts as if it’s gospel, went 15-30 against the spread in week 1 for games that had 2 FBS teams.

Ouch

I can vouch for this, as someone who borrows FPI as one of my inputs for my college football betting model.

FPI's problem, especially earlier in the year, is that it puts way too much emphasis on recruiting. That's how you see teams like UCLA and Tennessee in the Top 25 of FPI despite not belonging there.

FPI is a great predictor once the preseason weights are phased out(has some of the lowest P-Values out there and its team efficiences are the best out there in my opinion), but until then I've considered dropping it from my model since its just too skewed toward teams who recruit well.

 

[Bob Sugar]

I can vouch for this, as someone who borrows FPI as one of my inputs for my college football betting model.

FPI's problem, especially earlier in the year, is that it puts way too much emphasis on recruiting. That's how you see teams like UCLA and Tennessee in the Top 25 of FPI despite not belonging there.

FPI is a great predictor once the preseason weights are phased out(has some of the lowest P-Values out there and its team efficiences are the best out there in my opinion), but until then I've considered dropping it from my model since its just too skewed toward teams who recruit well.

How did you go about creating your own model?

 

[Prince of Purpoole]

I’m not superstitious. In fact, to steal a line from another poster I’m not even stitious....however, since we have been in Chicago our hotel room has a purple and white theme, I’ve seen two elderly women on different days with their hair dyed bright purple, we tried a restaurant that more than one person recommended highly - The Purple Pig - and today our Uber driver was sporting a purple blazer. If I had not quit gambling years ago I would be ready to put a sizable sum on the Frogs.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

How did you go about creating your own model?

 

[Purp]

...and today our Uber driver was sporting a purple blazer.

I thought @WhiteHispanicFrog lived in Dallas now. Weird.

 

[Froggish]

Seems like money is coming in on the Frogs but the line isn’t moving much...Wise guys might be liking Purdue..