Next four games--what do you expect?

[Prince of Purpoole II]

I think we can infer that the staff has lost the team. That effort Saturday night was embarrassing. It reminded me of our effort vs UH last year. That game was the first I'd ever left early, my disgust was so great (and I go back to first attending games with my Dad in 1973). Anyway, Saturday reminded me of what I saw vs UH in 2024.

The crucible moment came and went this weekend. After losing to Iowa State, we were either going to go roll over and quit vs BYU or put up a fight. The way we got pushed around (and seemingly being ok with it) leaves little hope that we'll see anything but the same against UH and Cinci

It’s pretty clear now that the evidence is in that the staff far from losing the team was able to rally them to two good to very good efforts and wins

 

[y2kFrog]

It’s pretty clear now that the evidence is in that the staff far from losing the team was able to rally them to two good to very good efforts and wins

The last two years could have spiraled out of control down the stretch and we rallied to play out best games of the season towards the end. Not an easy task.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

 

[An-Cap Frog]

There goes my theory...

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

Bear is such a BYU name.

 

[TopFrog]

Bear is such a BYU name.

Remington is such a Texas name.

 

[jack the frog]

Josh is probably leading the 12 with an average or good O line. We need him back.

 

[Limey Frog]

Josh is probably leading the 12 with an average or good O line. We need him back.

We need an average to go o-line.

 

[ShreveFrog]

Hoov is/was clearly the best passer in the league if he can cut down on those frustrating picks. But he's a gunslinger. I don't mind the 50-50 throws in one-on-one. We have/had receivers who make the plays, like vs. Cincy.

 

[Prince of Purpoole II]

The last two years could have spiraled out of control down the stretch and we rallied to play out best games of the season towards the end. Not an easy task.

Yep. Ask Cincy

 

[PurplFrawg]

Looks like I should have laid some money down. 0-2 so far and it looks bad. If the next coach doesnt look like a vain is going to pop out of his head for at least 1/2 the game, I dont think its a good hire. I dont mind losing, but these losses are pathetic.

vein

 

[Limey Frog]

This was almost the most accurate predication, from @Frognosticator, that we would lose to ISU then win the remaining three. http://forum.killerfrogs.com/index....-games-what-do-you-expect.245616/post-3478638

But in the end this GIF from @TopFrog was probably the most spot on.

FWIW, I thought I had said 2-2 with wins over Iowa State and Cincinnati, but looking back I actually said 7-5. I leaned toward us beating Cinnatti at home, but thought Sorsby would keep them on the field on 3rd and 4th down with the type of Houdini antics that have killed TCU's defense in recent years just when you think we're about to record a sack. I didn't see a good road performance at Houston or a decent defensive game against Sam Levitt Lite coming.

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

Some bad takes at the beginning of this thread. Lots of 0-4 predictions, especially if we lost to ISU.

According to Massey at the time of the original post, we had about a 60% chance of beating ISU. 40% of beating BYU, 45% chance of beating UH and 55% of beating Cincy. So basically 4 coin flip games, most likely 2-2 as what happened. We could have gotten a little lucky and won 3 or a little unlucky and won 1. Or really unlucky or lucky with 0-4 or 4-0 but those were the least likely outcomes, probability wise.

Always amazes me how fans see everything in absolutes (team is either good or bad, will win any game the other team is "worse" and lose any game the other team is "better") and don't look at it in probabilistic terms. Probability wise, this team plays BYU 10 times, it probably wins 4. That was true before the game and is still true.

 

[Wexahu]

Some bad takes at the beginning of this thread. Lots of 0-4 predictions, especially if we lost to ISU.

According to Massey at the time of the original post, we had about a 60% chance of beating ISU. 40% of beating BYU, 45% chance of beating UH and 55% of beating Cincy. So basically 4 coin flip games, most likely 2-2 as what happened. We could have gotten a little lucky and won 3 or a little unlucky and won 1. Or really unlucky or lucky with 0-4 or 4-0 but those were the least likely outcomes, probability wise.

Always amazes me how fans see everything in absolutes (team is either good or bad, will win any game the other team is "worse" and lose any game the other team is "better") and don't look at it in probabilistic terms. Probability wise, this team plays BYU 10 times, it probably wins 4. That was true before the game and is still true.

It pains me to agree with you as much as I have been recently (just gotta avoid certain threads I guess, lol) but yeah, I agree.

The number of bad takes on here shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[Limey Frog]

Some bad takes at the beginning of this thread. Lots of 0-4 predictions, especially if we lost to ISU.

According to Massey at the time of the original post, we had about a 60% chance of beating ISU. 40% of beating BYU, 45% chance of beating UH and 55% of beating Cincy. So basically 4 coin flip games, most likely 2-2 as what happened. We could have gotten a little lucky and won 3 or a little unlucky and won 1. Or really unlucky or lucky with 0-4 or 4-0 but those were the least likely outcomes, probability wise.

Always amazes me how fans see everything in absolutes (team is either good or bad, will win any game the other team is "worse" and lose any game the other team is "better") and don't look at it in probabilistic terms. Probability wise, this team plays BYU 10 times, it probably wins 4. That was true before the game and is still true.

I don't think it's realistic to say BYU was ever a coin flip, or close to it. Everything up to that point in the season told us that BYU is a good team and TCU is--away from home at least--not. Iowa State had lost four straight and were riddled with injuries. I would have put TCU's chances considerably above 60%, and heading into the 4th quarter that's what it looked like. I didn't think we would go 0-4, but I don't think that was an unreasonable take after the way we nearly wet the bed vs. Baylor and had barely managed to beat near-lifeless teams like Colorado and WVU.

Teams that consistently make close games out of what should be comfortable wins can reasonably be expected to lose actual "coin flip" games every time. Coins are inert matter; football teams have human traits. With four games to play most of the data on this team pointed toward losses. After ten games, pretty much all of it did. Anyone who was certain TCU would win two games in November can't have banked on anything more than the Big XII being the Big XII. But, as it turns out, the Big XII is indeed still the Big XII--the love-child of Chaos and Mediocrity.

 

[HornedFrogAz]

Bear is such a BYU name.

Remember Bronco Mendenhall? What is it with Mormons & animal first names?

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Some bad takes at the beginning of this thread. Lots of 0-4 predictions, especially if we lost to ISU.

According to Massey at the time of the original post, we had about a 60% chance of beating ISU. 40% of beating BYU, 45% chance of beating UH and 55% of beating Cincy. So basically 4 coin flip games, most likely 2-2 as what happened. We could have gotten a little lucky and won 3 or a little unlucky and won 1. Or really unlucky or lucky with 0-4 or 4-0 but those were the least likely outcomes, probability wise.

Always amazes me how fans see everything in absolutes (team is either good or bad, will win any game the other team is "worse" and lose any game the other team is "better") and don't look at it in probabilistic terms. Probability wise, this team plays BYU 10 times, it probably wins 4. That was true before the game and is still true.

Didn't someone with their own "Excel" model predict a 2-2 finish?

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Remember Bronco Mendenhall? What is it with Mormons & animal first names?

Maybe Joseph Smith had a native American wife or two...LDS believe they are spiritually part of the tribes of Isreal. True story, Bronco's real name is Branko Mendelbaum...

 

[KillerFrog InD KitchenSink]

I don't think it's realistic to say BYU was ever a coin flip, or close to it. Everything up to that point in the season told us that BYU is a good team and TCU is--away from home at least--not. Iowa State had lost four straight and were riddled with injuries. I would have put TCU's chances considerably above 60%, and heading into the 4th quarter that's what it looked like. I didn't think we would go 0-4, but I don't think that was an unreasonable take after the way we nearly wet the bed vs. Baylor and had barely managed to beat near-lifeless teams like Colorado and WVU.

Teams that consistently make close games out of what should be comfortable wins can reasonably be expected to lose actual "coin flip" games every time. Coins are inert matter; football teams have human traits. With four games to play most of the data on this team pointed toward losses. After ten games, pretty much all of it did. Anyone who was certain TCU would win two games in November can't have banked on anything more than the Big XII being the Big XII. But, as it turns out, the Big XII is indeed still the Big XII--the love-child of Chaos and Mediocrity.

We were 3.5 point underdogs. Vegas 3.5- 5.5 underdogs win about 40% of the time. The reality is BYU is a good but not great team. They are 14 point dogs to Tech. They had a good game where everything went right like we had against Cincy. But you play that game multiple times and you’d see a wide range of outcomes.

Utah, otoh, is a strong team. If they win that BYU- Utah game they are probably 7 or 8 right now.

 

[Big Frog II]

Maybe Joseph Smith had a native American wife or two...LDS believe they are spiritually part of the tribes of Isreal. True story, Bronco's real name is Branko Mendelbaum...

Oy!