Next four games--what do you expect?

[Limey Frog]

@An-Cap Frog posted in another thread (here) Big 12 win percentages over the past two seasons to this point of 2025.

1. BYU 90%
2. ASU 76%
3. ISU 73%
4. TCU 71%
5. Tech 71%
6. KSU 62%

Sonny was clearly feeling pretty salty about this when he came in to the post-Baylor press conference all hot and bothered, knowing he would get heat for how we nearly lost instead of praise that we had won. This is fair enough from one perspective: we've mostly won the last two years. Here's another way of looking at it, though--the final win percentage of every team we beat in 2024, and win percentage right now of those we've beaten this year (leaving out FCS teams):

2024: Stanford (.250), Kansas (.417), Utah (.417), Tech (.615), Pokes (.250), 'Zona (.333), Cincinnati (.417)
2025: UNC (.286), SMU (.625), Colorado (.375), Baylor (.500), WVU (.250)

To date, we've beaten exactly one team above .500 in each of the past two seasons, both at home.

Current win percentage of our remaining opponents: Iowa State (.625), BYU (.1000), Houston (.875), Cincinnati (.875).

Obviously these teams will all likely finish a little worse than their current standings overall because they play one another or other good teams and someone must lose, but we're about to play four .500+ teams in a row, two away from home. I think if we go 3-1 in that stretch Sonny has every right to get hot and bothered and say TCU has the most wins in the Big 12 over the past four years, etc. I think going 2-2 would be decent if we're competitive in the losses and don't throw the game away with unforced errors.

What do y'all think is going to happen?

 

[Wexahu]

@An-Cap Frog posted in another thread (here) Big 12 win percentages over the past two seasons to this point of 2025.

Sonny was clearly feeling pretty salty about this when he came in to the post-Baylor press conference all hot and bothered, knowing he would get heat for how we nearly lost instead of praise that we had won. This is fair enough from one perspective: we've mostly won the last two years. Here's another way of looking at it, though--the final win percentage of every team we beat in 2024, and win percentage right now of those we've beaten this year (leaving out FCS teams):

2024: Stanford (.250), Kansas (.417), Utah (.417), Tech (.615), Pokes (.250), 'Zona (.333), Cincinnati (.417)
2025: UNC (.286), SMU (.625), Colorado (.375), Baylor (.500), WVU (.250)

To date, we've beaten exactly one team above .500 in each of the past two seasons, both at home.

Current win percentage of our remaining opponents: Iowa State (.625), BYU (.1000), Houston (.875), Cincinnati (.875).

Obviously these teams will all likely finish a little worse than their current standings overall because they play one another or other good teams and someone must lose, but we're about to play four straight .500+ teams in a row, two away from home. I think if we go 3-1 in that stretch Sonny has every right to get hot and bothered and say TCU has the most wins in the Big 12 over the past four years, etc. I think going 2-2 would be decent if we're competitive in the losses and don't throw the game away with unforced errors.

What do y'all think is going to happen?

2-2 most likely. Injuries will be a factor I would guess.

Take ASU for example. They seem to go from pretty darn good to below average based on the availability of a couple players.

You basically assured us all of a 6-6 season after the K-State game. You might be right but we’ll see what happens.

 

[Frogs1983]

1-3 if they can beat Iowa State.0-4 if lose to Iowa State. Not winning at Provo with this half azz offensive show from last night. Most likely a blow out.

UH & Cinci, Frogs may have a "punchers shot"IF they can play with some enthusiasm and cut down the penalties a lot(haven't seen Evidence they can so far) .

 

[cdsfrog]

1-3 or 0-4

 

[y2kFrog]

I still think Cincy and Houston are pretenders who have gotten good schedule draws and luck so far.

 

[Wexahu]

I still think Cincy and Houston are pretenders who have gotten good schedule draws and luck so far.

Cincy lost to Nebraska and beat KU by three, giving up almost 600 yards of offense in the process. Houston had to go to overtime to beat freaking Oregon State.

We may lose handily to both teams, I don’t know, but it’s not like those are unbeatable teams. We aren’t that good but we probably aren’t as bad as some here think.

Go back a year ago. After the Houston game exactly nobody figured we’d finish 8-4. Nobody.

 

[Double D]

0-4. No more wins this season. Excuses already made on post game radio interview last night.
Coaching is the issue. No discipline. Attention to detail lacking. Horrible O Line play. Secondary lost.
Sad.

 

[geezer]

0-4

 

[Wexahu]

0-4. No more wins this season. Excuses already made on post game radio interview last night.
Coaching is the issue. No discipline. Attention to detail lacking. Horrible O Line play. Secondary lost.
Sad.

Let’s bet on that. How much? I’ll go as high as you want. Put your money wheee your mouth is.

 

[geezer]

0-4. No more wins this season. Excuses already made on post game radio interview last night.
Coaching is the issue. No discipline. Attention to detail lacking. Horrible O Line play. Secondary lost.
Sad.

As I look at the coaching staffs of all the other TCU sports--men's and woman's--Sonny & Co rate dead last in terms of player acquisition, development, and game-time execution.

 

[FroggleRock]

2-2. We’re a top team in the conference at home. But for whatever reason, we become what looks like a drunken beer league team on the road. Disciplined teams like BYU and UH are going to eat our lunch.

 

[tcufrogprince1]

@An-Cap Frog posted in another thread (here) Big 12 win percentages over the past two seasons to this point of 2025.

Sonny was clearly feeling pretty salty about this when he came in to the post-Baylor press conference all hot and bothered, knowing he would get heat for how we nearly lost instead of praise that we had won. This is fair enough from one perspective: we've mostly won the last two years. Here's another way of looking at it, though--the final win percentage of every team we beat in 2024, and win percentage right now of those we've beaten this year (leaving out FCS teams):

2024: Stanford (.250), Kansas (.417), Utah (.417), Tech (.615), Pokes (.250), 'Zona (.333), Cincinnati (.417)
2025: UNC (.286), SMU (.625), Colorado (.375), Baylor (.500), WVU (.250)

To date, we've beaten exactly one team above .500 in each of the past two seasons, both at home.

Current win percentage of our remaining opponents: Iowa State (.625), BYU (.1000), Houston (.875), Cincinnati (.875).

Obviously these teams will all likely finish a little worse than their current standings overall because they play one another or other good teams and someone must lose, but we're about to play four straight .500+ teams in a row, two away from home. I think if we go 3-1 in that stretch Sonny has every right to get hot and bothered and say TCU has the most wins in the Big 12 over the past four years, etc. I think going 2-2 would be decent if we're competitive in the losses and don't throw the game away with unforced errors.

What do y'all think is going to happen?

After the West Virginia game and all the injuries Ill say 0 and 4 and any win will be a nice surprise. Patterson drove these teams and got everything out of then. Dykes doesn't. Alot of underperforming on his teams.

 

[Mean Purple]

Cincy lost to Nebraska and beat KU by three, giving up almost 600 yards of offense in the process. Houston had to go to overtime to beat freaking Oregon State.

We may lose handily to both teams, I don’t know, but it’s not like those are unbeatable teams. We aren’t that good but we probably aren’t as bad as some here think.

Go back a year ago. After the Houston game exactly nobody figured we’d finish 8-4. Nobody.

Houston had extra to play for last night. The got the word of a member of their coaching staff losing his battle with cancer just hours before kickoff. but they are 7-1. can't deny that part. They played off against Tech.

 

[tetonfrog]

After the West Virginia game and all the injuries Ill say 0 and 4 and any win will be a nice surprise. Patterson drove these teams and got everything out of then. Dykes doesn't. Alot of underperforming on his teams.

How did GP’s “driven” teams do his final 4 years? There were a lot of underperformers on those teams - including most of his assistant coaches.

 

[Wexahu]

Houston had extra to play for last night. The got the word of a member of their coaching staff losing his battle with cancer just hours before kickoff. but they are 7-1. can't deny that part. They played off against Tech.

And we are 6-2.

 

[Mean Purple]

@An-Cap Frog posted in another thread (here) Big 12 win percentages over the past two seasons to this point of 2025.

Sonny was clearly feeling pretty salty about this when he came in to the post-Baylor press conference all hot and bothered, knowing he would get heat for how we nearly lost instead of praise that we had won. This is fair enough from one perspective: we've mostly won the last two years. Here's another way of looking at it, though--the final win percentage of every team we beat in 2024, and win percentage right now of those we've beaten this year (leaving out FCS teams):

2024: Stanford (.250), Kansas (.417), Utah (.417), Tech (.615), Pokes (.250), 'Zona (.333), Cincinnati (.417)
2025: UNC (.286), SMU (.625), Colorado (.375), Baylor (.500), WVU (.250)

To date, we've beaten exactly one team above .500 in each of the past two seasons, both at home.

Current win percentage of our remaining opponents: Iowa State (.625), BYU (.1000), Houston (.875), Cincinnati (.875).

Obviously these teams will all likely finish a little worse than their current standings overall because they play one another or other good teams and someone must lose, but we're about to play four straight .500+ teams in a row, two away from home. I think if we go 3-1 in that stretch Sonny has every right to get hot and bothered and say TCU has the most wins in the Big 12 over the past four years, etc. I think going 2-2 would be decent if we're competitive in the losses and don't throw the game away with unforced errors.

What do y'all think is going to happen?

sonny got defensive because he knew legit questions are starting to be asked. the post game comment last week was an obvious dodge.

fact is, he has now been in this league long enough for opponents to know how he schemes (or extreme lack thereof). They know if they are within 20 points at half, there is a good chance they can adjust and come roaring back against the Frogs. While sonny stands there with his mouth open completely unaware of the [ Finebaum ] show he produces in the second half of games.

We should have beat WVU by more than 3 touchdowns. This team has zero discipline.

I think Cincy is gonna beat the tar out of us. Same with BYU. Would be shocked if we beat Houston. Can't even feel safe about the game against the Cyclones. That's how predictable sonny is in the second half.

 

[An-Cap Frog]

Ranking wins TCU vs UH...

1. UH over ASU
2. TCU over SMU
3. TCU over Baylor
4. UH over UA
5. TCU over WVU
6. TCU over Colorado - UH over Colorado
8. TCU over UNC
9. UH over Rice
10. UH over OSU (Pac-12)
11. UH over OSU (Big 12)
12. UH over SFA
13. TCU over ACU

Also, TCU's average in-game win probability rank adjusted for chance that an average FBS team would control games from start to finish the way this team did, given the schedule.

TCU 22
UH 45

 

[An-Cap Frog]

How about this. What would TCU's record be if they had UH's schedule and what would UH's record be if they had TCU's schedule?

 

[y2kFrog]

These comments sound just like last year bye week time. So naturally we’ll come out blazing after the bye.

 

[BrewingFrog]

These comments sound just like last year bye week time. So naturally we’ll come out blazing after the bye.

In last year's case, our Crack Staff discovered (to their surprise) players who could perform in a scheme as yet untried, and found success. Brilliance, or dumb luck (and I lean towards the latter) came to the fore, and we rattled off some good wins. Forgotten is the evaluation and offensive scheme which was the first string of underwhelming games.

This season, who are the standout kids who could fill in to such a scheme? What is the New Wrinkle that our Crack Staff could employ to befuddle and bemuse our opponents over the next 4 games?

I do not believe that Hoov is going to flourish in a Wishbone scheme. We couldn't block for it, anyway. That leaves some gimmicky nonsense, which The Whelp loves to inflict on us, but is rarely successful. That leaves our Regular Offense of 70-30 pass-run, with an ineffective "run" component. Opponents have sussed out our tendencies, and game plan against them, which is why the 'Eers seemed to know what was coming on practically every play. Other programs have competent Staff, which is why they change things and adjust as the season progresses. We are evidently incapable of this, and it shows in decreasing performance every passing week. They're on to us, and our Crack Staff is too stupid/stubborn to change.

We shall see, but by Magic 8 Ball is right pessimistic.