• The KillerFrogs

Name Brand Bias

Wexahu

Full Member
Dude, it's not comparable and you know it. The competition is not the same level.
The Big 12 top to bottom is a much tougher conference and plays round-robin, the B10 does not and has much weaker teams top to bottom.
Your willful bias and ignorance is stunning.
Really. Top to bottom?

I think the B12 teams 3-10 are better than the Big 10 teams 4-14. No question. But not 20 ppg on average better. Not even close.
 

jcfair

New Member
So question. Should the first game of the season where tOSU beat ND by 11 count as we look at the standings? Was ND the same team then that they are now? Should that game matter?
 

TxFrog1999

The Man Behind The Curtain
No, it isn't. Sorry, if one team is winning games by 4 TDs every week and another is winning by 1 TD, that matters. How much, people can disagree on, but it absolutely matters. It's not like these schedules are comprised of teams that are THAT different, there is enough interconference play to know that the middle or worst Big 12 team isn't 20 points superior or inferior to the middle or worst Big 10 or SEC or ACC team.
If you can’t compare similar data points then the variable is useless. Period. And even if you are using the same team for comparison you know that each week is different, from injuries to game planning college football isn’t an exact science.

My point is, the ONLY way to determine who the best team is on any given week is to play the game. That’s it. All of these data points, polls, and BS composite models mean NOTHING when that whistle blows.

This is why we needed a 16 team playoff from the beginning.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
So question. Should the first game of the season where tOSU beat ND by 11 count as we look at the standings? Was ND the same team then that they are now? Should that game matter?
Well, ND was ranked #5 at the time, but they absolutely should NOT get credit for beating a Top 5 team, because Notre Dame is not a top 5 team. It doesn't matter what they were ranked at the time the game was played, that's one of the dumbest arguments people make.

Wherever ND ends up ranked is what that win should be judged on. Obviously if ND beats USC Saturday they are going to move up a few spots and that win by OSU looks better than it does now.

And Ohio State shouldn't be ranked higher than based on that one game. They should be ranked higher than us primarily because they have the same record we do but are beating teams by a way larger margin. The Notre Dame wins partially offsets the differences in league schedules to this point. Not that hard to understand, and shouldn't be all that controversial.
 

jcfair

New Member
Well, ND was ranked #5 at the time, but they absolutely should NOT get credit for beating a Top 5 team, because Notre Dame is not a top 5 team. It doesn't matter what they were ranked at the time the game was played, that's one of the dumbest arguments people make.

Wherever ND ends up ranked is what that win should be judged on. Obviously if ND beats USC Saturday they are going to move up a few spots and that win by OSU looks better than it does now.

And Ohio State shouldn't be ranked higher than based on that one game. They should be ranked higher than us primarily because they have the same record we do but are beating teams by a way larger margin. The Notre Dame wins partially offsets the differences in league schedules to this point. Not that hard to understand, and shouldn't be all that controversial.
I understand that you believe it one way and that I believe it another. That is what makes it controversial. Let's look at this beyond just TCU and my purple-shaded sunglasses.

Based on your concepts, Michigan should be ranked higher than tOSU since they had a larger margin of victory over Penn St. And overall, the margin of victory is only 2 points. So, even though tOSU has played a tougher schedule and has a better SOS, SOR and GC, tOSU is clearly the better team. Now I know that this will all work itself out between these two teams, but what if they weren't in the same Division of the same Conference? What if it was between which one of these two makes the playoffs and which one doesn't?
 

Horny4TCU

Active Member
I am a long time follower of Killer Frogs, 25 year Season Ticket Holder, MBA grad, and bleed purple. Just wanted to get my loyalties out in front. Doing my own research and looking at statistics, a case should be made that TCU should be ranked #1 or #2 currently. Just keep winning and we will be in, but should be in regardless, just like UGA.

View attachment 12795

Sorted based on Record, the SOS, then SOR. I think this is relatively clear. TCU has the highest SOS and SOR for the unbeaten teams. Best win about the same as everyone, we played more ranked teams at the time than anyone.

SEC teams are propped up by National Bias. You all have been saying that on this board for years. The reason that Georgia, Bama, LSU, Tennessee are ranked this high is because they beat other teams in the SEC that are overrated as well.

Don't want my first post to be so long that nobody reads it. But here you go.
You attacked the issue of brand bias all wrong.

Look at 0U. They have been in the CFP 4 times. 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. In 2015, they lost to Texas mid season. In 2017, 0U lost to ISU mid season. Again in 2018, 0U lost to Texas mid season. And in 2019, they lost to KSU mid season. Just for additional information, in 17, 18, and 19 they did win the Conference Championship.

The problem is, if TCU lost any game mid season, they wouldn't be offered the grace 0U was gifted. We would probably still be sitting top 10, but not top 5. And this goes for any team below us that is a "blue blood", why are we all so worried about a 1 or 2 loss team jumping us as an undefeated team. That is your "Name Brand Bias".
 

jcfair

New Member
And speaking of other teams. LSU, if they were to win out and TCU finishes with one loss, would jump TCU in the CFP rankings. Just listen to all the talking heads and they will tell you that.

So 11-2 LSU would jump 12-1 TCU with more losses, (and based on current stats), a worse SOR, GC and lower margin of victory overall.

I realize that we are all making assumptions and presumptions about what could or might happen, but you have to look at the overall picture and not just specific statistics for specific teams. You also can't assume that there shouldn't be controversy if others don't hold your same opinion.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
More than 20 ppg better. Best comparison is Mountain West vs. B10 West.
In a bowl game, Texas > Penn State, Kansas State > Michigan
If TCU as the B12 champion gets the chance to play Iowa as the B10 champion, this will be settled for all time.
The other B10 teams, meh.
You lost me.

FWIW, if TCU played Iowa this week we'd be 5-point favorites. I guess that'd be free money. We all know how that often works out.

Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue are more or less the same as Iowa State, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. Games between those teams would have a spread under 2. Iowa vs Baylor or Oklahoma would be about a toss up, maybe Iowa a 1-point underdog. The dregs of the Big 10 (Rutgers, Indiana, Nebraska, Northwestern would be about 14-point dogs to all these teams).

So yeah, no way in hell a 20 ppg average difference between the average Big 12 team and average Big 10 team.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
You attacked the issue of brand bias all wrong.

Look at 0U. They have been in the CFP 4 times. 2015, 2017, 2018, and 2019. In 2015, they lost to Texas mid season. In 2017, 0U lost to ISU mid season. Again in 2018, 0U lost to Texas mid season. And in 2019, they lost to KSU mid season. Just for additional information, in 17, 18, and 19 they did win the Conference Championship.

The problem is, if TCU lost any game mid season, they wouldn't be offered the grace 0U was gifted. We would probably still be sitting top 10, but not top 5. And this goes for any team below us that is a "blue blood", why are we all so worried about a 1 or 2 loss team jumping us as an undefeated team. That is your "Name Brand Bias".
Depends on what is happening with the other teams, among other factors. Last year OU was 9-0 and ranked #8 and 9-1 and ranked #13.

This stuff is so easy to refute that it's kinda fun.
 

jcfair

New Member
I appreciate the debate and the back and forth. However, Thanksgiving duties are now pulling me away. Go Frogs, win and make all other arguments fall away.

Happy Thanksgiving and House of Duggan 2022.
 

Casey T

Full Member
Both sides make valid points. Bottom line, once the current 8 members that are all playing great ball right now add the new 4 teams and IF we move to 8 conference games and don’t have to play everyone every year, this league will look a hell of a lot better records wise. All of our 7-5 teams will be 8-4 or 9-3, and some would be 10-2 due to less tough games played. Just wait another year for Houston/UCF to become punching bags and add another bad OOC game to pad stats
 

froginmn

Full Member
No, it isn't. Sorry, if one team is winning games by 4 TDs every week and another is winning by 1 TD, that matters. How much, people can disagree on, but it absolutely matters. It's not like these schedules are comprised of teams that are THAT different, there is enough interconference play to know that the middle or worst Big 12 team isn't 20 points superior or inferior to the middle or worst Big 10 or SEC or ACC team.
It also matters WHO they are beating by 4 TDs. tOSU is very good but claiming they're way better because they're pounding Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan State (none of whom have a winning record) and Iowa, which lost to the worst team in our league) is silly.
 

TxFrog1999

The Man Behind The Curtain
Depends on what is happening with the other teams, among other factors. Last year OU was 9-0 and ranked #8 and 9-1 and ranked #13.

This stuff is so easy to refute that it's kinda fun.
9-0 OU moved to #6 the following week after their open date. The one loss teams in front of them were Ohio State, Oregon, and Alabama.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I understand that you believe it one way and that I believe it another. That is what makes it controversial. Let's look at this beyond just TCU and my purple-shaded sunglasses.

Based on your concepts, Michigan should be ranked higher than tOSU since they had a larger margin of victory over Penn St. And overall, the margin of victory is only 2 points. So, even though tOSU has played a tougher schedule and has a better SOS, SOR and GC, tOSU is clearly the better team. Now I know that this will all work itself out between these two teams, but what if they weren't in the same Division of the same Conference? What if it was between which one of these two makes the playoffs and which one doesn't?
Just the fact that Michigan beat Penn State by more doesn't trump everything else. Everything matters.....schedule, point spread, home/away. etc etc etc. All of it. It's really not that hard to comprehend but what people want to do is take the data point that supports their team's argument and emphasize that over all the others, sometimes exclusively over all the others.

Worst loss but the big one we wanted to call out in 2014. All the other stuff didn't matter, it was who lost to the worst team. If we lose Saturday and beat Kansas State, I can guarantee you that argument for TCU fans will be completely flipped to something else. It will probably be who played the least amount of bad teams, or who had the better second halves, or who played the most road games, something like that. It's already happening.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
It also matters WHO they are beating by 4 TDs. tOSU is very good but claiming they're way better because they're pounding Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan State (none of whom have a winning record) and Iowa, which lost to the worst team in our league) is silly.
OK. They beat Notre Dame by 11. Wisconsin by 31. Iowa by 44. Penn State by 13 (obviously the score doesn't reflect how close it was but you could also say the same thing about our games with KSU and Tech, and UT the other way).

I mean, they've pretty much blown out everyone with the exception of Northwestern and Maryland, and they still won those games by 14 and 13 points. Iowa's 4 losses are by 3, 13, 3, and 44 points.
 
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