More realignment talk from Greg Swaim

[CryptoMiner]

Its happening!

 

[An-Cap Frog]

No Wake Forest

Baseball only invite...

 

[CryptoMiner]

Earlier

 

[EVOfrogMR]

So…. 6 + 16 BIG XIIx2.

Maybe 3 8 team clusters…. One can be the Altlantic Coast, one the Southwest, and one the Pacific.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Well now, this is interesting. Coming from a guy that’s usually right.
Although, I believe it may hinge on some kind of a settlement with the ACC.
A Settlement would make sense, as the court case could drag for years, and the ACC can’t move forward under this massive cloud.

 

[ShadowFrog]

Well now, this is interesting. Coming from a guy that’s usually right.
Although, I believe it may hinge on some kind of a settlement with the ACC.
A Settlement would make sense, as the court case could drag for years, and the ACC can’t move forward under this massive cloud.

I don’t twitter-X — does this guy troll much or does he have a legit reputation?

 

[Ron Swanson]

I don’t twitter-X — does this guy troll much or does he have a legit reputation?

Legit

He’s the mod of the Arizona message board and was all over the Big 12 realignment story better than anyone else lsst year.

 

[ShadowFrog]

Legit

He’s the mod of the Arizona message board and was all over the Big 12 realignment story better than anyone else lsst year.

Thanks Ron. Did you guys lose power or are you still in H-town area?

 

[Ron Swanson]

Thanks Ron. Did you guys lose power or are you still in H-town area?

Got it back last night

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Thanks Ron. Did you guys lose power or are you still in H-town area?

Just crazy. I’m in Florida, and have seen some big storms, but I swear Houston gets more big storms than we do. Houston = storm magnet

 

[Frognosticator]

So…. 6 + 16 BIG XIIx2.

Maybe 3 8 team clusters…. One can be the Altlantic Coast, one the Southwest, and one the Pacific.

BIG XII x 2 - 2 to be precise.

 

[Frog-in-law1995]

BIG XII x 2 - 2 to be precise.

Getting to be like one of those Facebook math posts that gets everybody riled up over the order of operations.

 

[Limey Frog]

Well now, this is interesting. Coming from a guy that’s usually right.
Although, I believe it may hinge on some kind of a settlement with the ACC.
A Settlement would make sense, as the court case could drag for years, and the ACC can’t move forward under this massive cloud.

Ok. Scheer is credible. I'll still believe it when I see it, but this guy is actually a source.

We'll see what happens, but here's what I suspect is going on: Yormark is working every angle to try and put a financial offer in front of Clemson and FSU that they might actually consider. Best case scenario, you land a white whale. Very likely next-best is that Clemson and FSU use your offer to leverage the Big Ten or SEC and you've helped deliver a blow to another conference that will shake a few programs loose who likely will join the Big 12. Yormark is making a legit play at Clemson and FSU knowing that even if he misses he's likely increasing the chance of getting VT, Pitt, Duke and Louisville.

 

[FroggleRock]

Ok. Scheer is credible. I'll still believe it when I see it, but this guy is actually a source.

We'll see what happens, but here's what I suspect is going on: Yormark is working every angle to try and put a financial offer in front of Clemson and FSU that they might actually consider. Best case scenario, you land a white whale. Very likely next-best is that Clemson and FSU use your offer to leverage the Big Ten or SEC and you've helped deliver a blow to another conference that will shake a few programs loose who likely will join the Big 12. Yormark is making a legit play at Clemson and FSU knowing that even if he misses he's likely increasing the chance of getting VT, Pitt, Duke and Louisville.

This.

At the end of the day, this is about survival. Even if you temporarily land FSU and Clemson by giving them higher revenue share, full well knowing they will jump ship to the BIG or SEC eventually, you do it. Yormark is clearly working on a mechanism to make that happen, while simultaneously making sure existing members don’t lose what they’re currently making. Possibly making a little more.

I hate that college sports has come to this, but this is the new reality. The long term play is to be one of the last ones at the power conference table. If the Big 12 ends up ultimately landing a grouping like Louisville, Miami, VT, and NCST, that keeps the Big 12 relevant.

 

[Limey Frog]

This.

At the end of the day, this is about survival. Even if you temporarily land FSU and Clemson by giving them higher revenue share, full well knowing they will jump ship to the BIG or SEC eventually, you do it. Yormark is clearly working on a mechanism to make that happen, while simultaneously making sure existing members don’t lose what they’re currently making. Possibly making a little more.

I hate that college sports has come to this, but this is the new reality. The long term play is to be one of the last ones at the power conference table. If the Big 12 ends up ultimately landing a grouping like Louisville, Miami, VT, and NCST, that keeps the Big 12 relevant.

Yep. Exactly as we said this time last year over all the Pac 12 stuff: this all totally sucks, but the eight schools Oklahoma and Texas ditched in 2021 didn't make this world, we're just determined to stay alive in it if we can.

 

[tmcats]

i'm taken by the fact that we have not heard a single denial from clemson or tallahassee. they could easily shut down all this blow with a wet towel statement. they have not. this suggests something is going on. i'm sure yormark has been to both towns just as he was at boulder and tucson a year past.

as for exiting the existing acc contract, that's what private equity may be used to fix. we can be sure the card will not be laid without predetermined financial goals having been met with media partners. these people - yormark, media, p.e. firm(s) - are not dumb.

 

[82 Frog Fever]

Ok. Scheer is credible. I'll still believe it when I see it, but this guy is actually a source.

We'll see what happens, but here's what I suspect is going on: Yormark is working every angle to try and put a financial offer in front of Clemson and FSU that they might actually consider. Best case scenario, you land a white whale. Very likely next-best is that Clemson and FSU use your offer to leverage the Big Ten or SEC and you've helped deliver a blow to another conference that will shake a few programs loose who likely will join the Big 12. Yormark is making a legit play at Clemson and FSU knowing that even if he misses he's likely increasing the chance of getting VT, Pitt, Duke and Louisville.

I really like your last sentence, because that’s what FSU/Clem. is to the B12, a short-term investment.
At the end of the day, when CFB Armageddon arrives and everything shifts, FSU/Clem. will be a member of whatever the BIG/SEC morphs into.
However, the B12 gets a bunch of nice ACC schools permanently.
- The B12 will have to pay a big piece of the negotiated exit cost, maybe $200-$300m total for both via private investment from B12 sources. FSU/Clem probably stays 2 to 5 years.
- But the B12 gets a GREATLY increased media deal, the extinction of the ACC, along with VT, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Virginia?, Miami??, Duke??, NC?? Who knows what Yormark could spin up here.
It would be a masterful coup via Yormark!

 

[tmcats]

I really like your last sentence, because that’s what FSU/Clem. is to the B12, a short-term investment.
At the end of the day, when CFB Armageddon arrives and everything shifts, FSU/Clem. will be a member of whatever the BIG/SEC morphs into.
However, the B12 gets a bunch of nice ACC schools permanently.
- The B12 will have to pay a big piece of the negotiated exit cost, maybe $200-$300m total for both via private investment from B12 sources. FSU/Clem probably stays 2 to 5 years.
- But the B12 gets a GREATLY increased media deal, the extinction of the ACC, along with VT, Pitt, Louisville, NC State, Virginia?, Miami??, Duke??, NC?? Who knows what Yormark could spin up here.
It would be a masterful coup via Yormark!

private equity is not buying either out of the acc only to let them leave for the b10. you must think p.e. dudes are not very smart or you yourself are simply naïve.

 

[Limey Frog]

private equity is not buying either out of the acc only to let them leave for the b10. you must think p.e. dudes are not very smart or you yourself are simply naïve.

I suppose it's possible for the Big 12 to borrow against increased revenue from having games including Clemson and FSU to sell, use that money to pay the two schools' ACC exit costs, then let Clemson and FSU have a cost-free exit option but agree that they will assume the full remaining cost of paying down the loan if they leave before it is repaid. I don't think Clemson and FSU will be joining the Big 12 at all, but they certainly won't be doing so if they can't get out immediately should the Big Ten or SEC come calling.

 

[The TCU Football Jerk]

Lol.

Seriously, though, people just keep repeating the phrase "private equity" like it's a magic incantation. Can we please be clear on what we're talking about: investors lending money at interest to fund something that will create a product valuable enough to pay off that investment plus interest while also making the borrower(s) more money than they were making before. The Big 12's product is football on TV with a side dish of basketball on TV. That is also the Big Ten and SEC's product, except theirs is worth more. If the 16 existing members of our conference playing football against FSU and Clemson will generate enough additional revenue to buy their way out of the ACC and get them to commit to the Big 12, how much more would those same schools generate by going to the Big Ten or SEC? Obviously that figure would be higher. So why wouldn't those conferences just take FSU and Clemson to get that cash? You can say "AAU" or "they already have members in those states" all you want, but see the Big Ten's about-face on Oregon and Washington or the SEC telling Aggy to stuff it when they invited Bevo U. The Big Ten and SEC will always take the money.

Here it is in a simple syllogism:
-- Big Ten/SEC + FSU & Clemson = more money than Big 12 + FSU & Clemson.
-- "Private equity" = money being used to make the most more money possible.
-- Therefore, if the magic private equity fairy is going to sprinkle some "get out of the ACC for very much not free" dust on FSU and Clemson to go anywhere, that somewhere will not be the Big 12.

The real secret of PE is its structure. Those that put it together. The deal partners make money no matter what. They start off taking a huge chunk in deal origination fees and special distributions of all kinds. Then it doesn't matter to them if the entity they buy goes bust in the end or not. The lenders/investors are the ones on the hook. If deal is ultimately successful great, all the better. But the deal originators are covered either way. That's why they're always so willing to overpay for investments. Many times ebitda. The deal partners make tens of millions, sometimes hundreds of millions regardless. The investors/lenders are the suckers. That and the acquisition targets who are saddled with too much debt. Payless, The Limited, Toys R Us, Gymboree and many other companies have gone by the wayside after being acquired by PE firms. Many do work out, but playing with debt is playing with fire. Not to mention giving up control to investors who know nothing about running a sports league. I'd be real interested to see how PE could work in the investment of a sports league like the B12.