Important Article re: Conference Revenues & TV Money

[Gary's Shirtless Revenge]

https://theathletic.com/1870731/202...rights-power-5-big-ten-sec-big-12-pac-12-acc/

Here's the gist:

- Gains in the next round of contracts are expected across the board
- They think they pecking order will remain the same: SEC and Big 10 way ahead, Big 12 in the middle, ahead of the PAC and the ACC bringing up the rear
- Big 12 may not have a ton of huge ratings games, but they have a good number of marquee teams and not too many teams, which helps with revenue distribution.

This is the best summary of how things COULD play out that I have seen. It underscores while it is unlikely any team movement will happen between conferences, although there are a few wildcards still:

- Pac 12 breaking up into factions, Big 12 expanding west
- ACC/SEC merger to form a mega conference

 

[Eight]

https://theathletic.com/1870731/202...rights-power-5-big-ten-sec-big-12-pac-12-acc/

Here's the gist:

- Gains in the next round of contracts are expected across the board
- They think they pecking order will remain the same: SEC and Big 10 way ahead, Big 12 in the middle, ahead of the PAC and the ACC bringing up the rear
- Big 12 may not have a ton of huge ratings games, but they have a good number of marquee teams and not too many teams, which helps with revenue distribution.

This is the best summary of how things COULD play out that I have seen. It underscores while it is unlikely any team movement will happen between conferences, although there are a few wildcards still:

- Pac 12 breaking up into factions, Big 12 expanding west
- ACC/SEC merger to form a mega conference

acc is 14 teams and sec is 16 teams.

straight merge leaves a mess in terms of teams, divisions, conference championships etc...

basically you don't have a conference but the makings of a separate division of football

 

[BrewingFrog]

Um, I think the SEC only has 14 members. According to their website, the ACC has 15. (ND doesn't play football with them.)

Regardless, I don't see a merger between the two. Too much stability in the arrangements.

The PAC, OTOH, is ripe for splitting and the rump merging with the BIGXII. It would make sense all around, and would be most attractive to TV. 2023 is approaching fast.

 

[Eight]

Um, I think the SEC only has 14 members. According to their website, the ACC has 15. (ND doesn't play football with them.)

Regardless, I don't see a merger between the two. Too much stability in the arrangements.

The PAC, OTOH, is ripe for splitting and the rump merging with the BIGXII. It would make sense all around, and would be most attractive to TV. 2023 is approaching fast.

thanks for the corrections. gives you 29 though i think at some point nd gets forced into a conference

biggest issue to me on adding teams from the pac is the geography.

 

[BrewingFrog]

biggest issue to me on adding teams from the pac is the geography.

Yeah. I can't see Oregon State or Washington State in the mix, simply due to travel difficulties. Conversely, I think it actually helps us given our proximity to a Great Big Airport with a lot of direct flights.

 

[BABYFACE]

Yeah, I do not see a merge of ACC and SEC. The SEC is not going to dilute their cut. The ACC would financially benefit with the SEC getting less money. Already dead deal.

 

[Brog]

Yeah. I can't see Oregon State or Washington State in the mix, simply due to travel difficulties. Conversely, I think it actually helps us given our proximity to a Great Big Airport with a lot of direct flights.

Right, but note that there are three or four PAC schools closer to us than West Virginia.

 

[Eight]

Right, but note that there are three or four PAC schools closer to us than West Virginia.

very true and if we are truly being honest west virginia isn't a great fit with the big 12 other than being a place holder.

 

[Mean Purple]

Um, I think the SEC only has 14 members. According to their website, the ACC has 15. (ND doesn't play football with them.)

Regardless, I don't see a merger between the two. Too much stability in the arrangements.

The PAC, OTOH, is ripe for splitting and the rump merging with the BIGXII. It would make sense all around, and would be most attractive to TV. 2023 is approaching fast.

yeah, SEC and ACC are not going anywhere anytime soon. The commissioners at those conferences are too sharp.

As far as the PAC breaking up, I'll believe it when I see it.

There is big money involved and part of that is regional reach.

 

[BrewingFrog]

True. The regional aspect is indeed there, but the 9pm-10pm Central-Eastern kickoffs are widely seen as a terrific anchor to their ratings. Moving at least some of the kickoffs to a Central Time location, with their Marquee name cachet, would be optimal.

 

[BABYFACE]

yeah, SEC and ACC are not going anywhere anytime soon. The commissioners at those conferences are too sharp.

As far as the PAC breaking up, I'll believe it when I see it.

There is big money involved and part of that is regional reach.

I really do not see any movement unless TV makes it appealing. Either two teams join the Big 12 or everyone stays pat imo.

 

[MAcFroggy]

I see a 0% chance of the big 12 expanding. The revenue per school is just so high now that I do not see any team adding close to that type of money.

As much as it would suck being that far behind the SEC/B1G, that amount of money would definitely put the Big 12 in a great position. Texas and Oklahoma would still be getting additional money from Tier 3.

We will have gone from $1M a year from MWC to $60M+ per year in a 15 year span. No matter how you look at it, if the big 12 stays together through the next round of negotiations, we will have hit a grand slam.

 

[Mean Purple]

I see a 0% chance of the big 12 expanding. The revenue per school is just so high now that I do not see any team adding close to that type of money.

As much as it would suck being that far behind the SEC/B1G, that amount of money would definitely put the Big 12 in a great position. Texas and Oklahoma would still be getting additional money from Tier 3.

We will have gone from $1M a year from MWC to $60M+ per year in a 15 year span. No matter how you look at it, if the big 12 stays together through the next round of negotiations, we will have hit a grand slam.

Any chance we miss out on the possible full potential increased revenue due to not having at least 12 teams?

 

[MAcFroggy]

Any chance we miss out on the possible full potential increased revenue due to not having at least 12 teams?

I have an acquaintance that is a high ranking official in the big 12. During the 2016 "expansion" process, where the Big 12 was interviewing schools to get added to the conference, this person (soon after the potential expansion was announced) told me that there was a near 0% chance that the Big 12 would expand. It was more or less done to appease a couple members, but it was more or less DOA.

Edit: The reasoning given has not really changed, so I do not think there is any reason to believe expansion will happen anytime in the near future.

Edit 2: To answer your question... I do not actually know that. But I doubt it would cause the conference members to take less per member by not expanding.

 

[BrewingFrog]

But I doubt it would cause the conference members to take less per member by not expanding.

Considering this, would it not be possible to expand by including a rump PAC and making slice of a bigger pie for all involved? I somehow doubt that they would flatly refuse a larger payout without studying the proposal.

 

[Sweat Equity]

I have an acquaintance that is a high ranking official in the big 12. During the 2016 "expansion" process, where the Big 12 was interviewing schools to get added to the conference, this person (soon after the potential expansion was announced) told me that there was a near 0% chance that the Big 12 would expand. It was more or less done to appease a couple members, but it was more or less DOA.

Edit: The reasoning given has not really changed, so I do not think there is any reason to believe expansion will happen anytime in the near future.

Edit 2: To answer your question... I do not actually know that. But I doubt it would cause the conference members to take less per member by not expanding.

This is somewhat misleading. Where is is misleading: There are strategic targets (and there always were). Where you are correct: the interest was not mutual...at the time.

 

[YA]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Yep!!

 

[BrewingFrog]

This is somewhat misleading. Where is is misleading: There are strategic targets (and there always were). Where you are correct: the interest was not mutual...at the time.

Ooooh! Delicious intrigue!

 

[hiphopfroggy]

Big12 gunna make the Zona schools an offer they can't refuse.

 

[MAcFroggy]

This is somewhat misleading. Where is is misleading: There are strategic targets (and there always were). Where you are correct: the interest was not mutual...at the time.

I guess I should have said; there was a 0% chance based on the G5 schools that were being floated in the media (Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Tulane, etc).