Hoops Expectations
- Thread starter Skip Jansen
- Start date
Eight
Member
interesting set of questions skip.
my 10,000 foot view of the potential of the tcu basketball program is the frogs are a member of a highly competitive, well known major conference, the school is located a large metropolitan area that turns out a good amount of high caliber talent with a minimal number of other major programs located in the area, the state has multiple cities over 1,000,000, the second large metropolitan area also produces a large number of high caliber talent, and the media contract for the big 12 provides good national exposure for prospects outside the metroplex and the state of texas.
facilities are improved, don't know how practice/locker room/ academic support areas compare with big 12 peers and in state competition, funding to the program has been significantly increased to allow the head coach to hire a quality staff.
the school doesn't have an elite tradition, but there has been some success by prior coaches in terms of being competitive. killingsworth was .500 in a swc that during his time included eddie sutton at arkansas, dave bliss' smu teams, guy v's run with p.s.j. and then the second reiteration, and gerald meyer at tech just off the top of my head.
killer finished in the top half of the swc 4 of his 8 times and finished t-1st and 1st his last two seasons, moe iba followed and he had some bad years but he finished 3rd or 4th 4 consecutive years, and then billy tubbs took over and he had a successful run. this might not be a history comparable to duke or kentucky, but from the mid 80's to the early 2000's the frogs were competitive more times than not in some very solid conferences.
i don't think it is farfetched to expect the frogs to be competitive each year and finish mid-big 12 or a bit higher. the program has been successful before, the commitment has been made to the program, and you are not having to go find the number of program changing players that you need in a sport like football.
a question to you skip is are there any reasons that a coach can not come to tcu, have a vision for the program, know what system they are wanting to run, be able to identify players who can fit into that system, and then make it happen?
as far as national expectations for the program, i might be way off base, but if the frogs are good enough to truly compete in the big 12 and finish in the top 4 which i don't think is an impossible ask the national things will work themselves out.
fast forward to the program right now i often find myself thinking this basketball season reminds me of the frogs football season that we just endured as fans. offensively, the frogs at times are nothing short of bad and there are times i would prefer to see the young, raw players getting playing time to develop instead of a senior transfer with no ties to the program who often times has been lacking in a basic offensive skills (shooting vs throwing the ball). defensively i think this team plays hard, but they have a hole at the 4 position that i fear is going to get exposed in conference play.
i could care less about dixon an ucla, find it curious he has had better teams which were primarily trent's recruits (when trent was having recruits come to a freaking high school gym to watch frog games) then a team that was primarily his recruits last year and looks to be so this year in large part to the fact a number of dixon's first 3 classes weren't good enough to play in this conference.
do i expect dixon to recruit like kansas? texas? or tech? no, i expect dixon's freshmen recruits to be able to contribute when they step on campus and not have to be red-shirted because they are missing basic basketball skills or awareness.
seriously, aside from bane what dixon recruit has shown the skill to be effective shooting the ball 20 feet from the basket as soon as they set foot on campus?
i can see where there is potential in the future. pairing samuel with rj (if he can improve his shot) is a nice start and farabello seems to have a nice feel for the game. problem to me is this seems to be a team built on a model from the analog age when the frogs big 12 peer are 4th or 5th generation digital and beyond
my 10,000 foot view of the potential of the tcu basketball program is the frogs are a member of a highly competitive, well known major conference, the school is located a large metropolitan area that turns out a good amount of high caliber talent with a minimal number of other major programs located in the area, the state has multiple cities over 1,000,000, the second large metropolitan area also produces a large number of high caliber talent, and the media contract for the big 12 provides good national exposure for prospects outside the metroplex and the state of texas.
facilities are improved, don't know how practice/locker room/ academic support areas compare with big 12 peers and in state competition, funding to the program has been significantly increased to allow the head coach to hire a quality staff.
the school doesn't have an elite tradition, but there has been some success by prior coaches in terms of being competitive. killingsworth was .500 in a swc that during his time included eddie sutton at arkansas, dave bliss' smu teams, guy v's run with p.s.j. and then the second reiteration, and gerald meyer at tech just off the top of my head.
killer finished in the top half of the swc 4 of his 8 times and finished t-1st and 1st his last two seasons, moe iba followed and he had some bad years but he finished 3rd or 4th 4 consecutive years, and then billy tubbs took over and he had a successful run. this might not be a history comparable to duke or kentucky, but from the mid 80's to the early 2000's the frogs were competitive more times than not in some very solid conferences.
i don't think it is farfetched to expect the frogs to be competitive each year and finish mid-big 12 or a bit higher. the program has been successful before, the commitment has been made to the program, and you are not having to go find the number of program changing players that you need in a sport like football.
a question to you skip is are there any reasons that a coach can not come to tcu, have a vision for the program, know what system they are wanting to run, be able to identify players who can fit into that system, and then make it happen?
as far as national expectations for the program, i might be way off base, but if the frogs are good enough to truly compete in the big 12 and finish in the top 4 which i don't think is an impossible ask the national things will work themselves out.
fast forward to the program right now i often find myself thinking this basketball season reminds me of the frogs football season that we just endured as fans. offensively, the frogs at times are nothing short of bad and there are times i would prefer to see the young, raw players getting playing time to develop instead of a senior transfer with no ties to the program who often times has been lacking in a basic offensive skills (shooting vs throwing the ball). defensively i think this team plays hard, but they have a hole at the 4 position that i fear is going to get exposed in conference play.
i could care less about dixon an ucla, find it curious he has had better teams which were primarily trent's recruits (when trent was having recruits come to a freaking high school gym to watch frog games) then a team that was primarily his recruits last year and looks to be so this year in large part to the fact a number of dixon's first 3 classes weren't good enough to play in this conference.
do i expect dixon to recruit like kansas? texas? or tech? no, i expect dixon's freshmen recruits to be able to contribute when they step on campus and not have to be red-shirted because they are missing basic basketball skills or awareness.
seriously, aside from bane what dixon recruit has shown the skill to be effective shooting the ball 20 feet from the basket as soon as they set foot on campus?
i can see where there is potential in the future. pairing samuel with rj (if he can improve his shot) is a nice start and farabello seems to have a nice feel for the game. problem to me is this seems to be a team built on a model from the analog age when the frogs big 12 peer are 4th or 5th generation digital and beyond
I expect the team to consistently finish in the 5-7th place in the league and maybe catch lightning in a bottle once or twice before JD retires
don
Active Member
4-6th, 50% NCAAs, 50% NIT. Seems like we have such a great staff overall. Not sure why more key players aren't in place yet at this point in his tenure.
UCLA job didn't bother me. Understand what it means to him. Another school and I might have felt differently.
Historically attendance is horrible in Nov/Dec. Not sure the answer there. Maybe move Dickies game to a holiday double header during the same time when Armed Forces Bowl is going on, though this year that game really late with teams that aren't going to draw crowds.
UCLA job didn't bother me. Understand what it means to him. Another school and I might have felt differently.
Historically attendance is horrible in Nov/Dec. Not sure the answer there. Maybe move Dickies game to a holiday double header during the same time when Armed Forces Bowl is going on, though this year that game really late with teams that aren't going to draw crowds.
JugbandFrog
Full Member
I just don’t get why we can’t be thriving in all these sports.
Skip Jansen
Active Member
Great post.
You brought a lot of issues that have a direct impact on building a successful basketball program (history, recruiting base, etc.).
To answer your question-
I don't see any reason a coach can't come in and build a program at TCU. The facilities are good, the administration support is good, the recruiting base is great.
I think this staff has it going in the right direction but I agree with NCFrawgs that the momentum is somewhat gone.
There's such a fine line with success. If the attrition hadn't taken place last year, and the Frogs would have gone to the NCAA tourney and won a game or two, the narrative is totally different.
I don't foresee any issues like that with this year's freshman class. This year's team is going to get better and next year's team should be really good.
Pharm Frog
Full Member
I expect to get some real good seats for a great price on the secondary market quite often.
helcap
Full Member
OSU has the number 2 ranked player in the 2020 class committed . Recruiting was simple, they hired his brother as an assistant coach. Jamie needs to have his assistant coach hires aimed towards recruiting. (not serious, kinda)
My expectations are for this team to be most years be a .500 ball club in Conference. I don't think we can attract the elite level recruits that some of the other schools , especially Kansas can. Not only because of tradition, but I think the "big stadium" effect we see in football recruiting plays out in basket ball. Kids want to play in front of 17 K rabid fans and be on National TV. And we don't have pipelines to power High School programs like Beard at Tech currently has to Ducanville
My expectations are for this team to be most years be a .500 ball club in Conference. I don't think we can attract the elite level recruits that some of the other schools , especially Kansas can. Not only because of tradition, but I think the "big stadium" effect we see in football recruiting plays out in basket ball. Kids want to play in front of 17 K rabid fans and be on National TV. And we don't have pipelines to power High School programs like Beard at Tech currently has to Ducanville
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RoyaltyWorePurple
Active Member
I have to wonder when the NCAA starts clamping down on this. Be it "the individual with family ties has to be hired by X time before the student matriculates". I noticed that USC is doing it with a father on staff. Can't pay the kids, but you sure can pay the parents.
Francis Xav
Active Member
If we are looking at it purely from a recruit ranking standpoint, we have a significant amount of talent here. Top 4 ish in Big 12. Last years exodus hampered it IMO. momentum is iffy and I don’t believe in such a thing because all it takes is one player or a bounce of a ball in some cases. We should have been a tourney team in 2016 and last year. We lost at WVU in 2016-17 on an awful call on fisher.
Historically, we have made leaps up in a tougher conference than we have ever played. JD is very competitive and I don’t think he wants to settle for being a tourney every 3 years kinda guy. I believe he can get it done. We must continue to recruit well though.
I think by the end of the year we will surprise lots of people. Fuller, Bane, Rj Etc are as good of guards as there are in the Big 12. Maybe I am wrong though but i expect things to improve rather quickly.
OmniscienceFrog
Full Member
Since Jamie's been here? It's been a big problem for 15 years.
Francis Xav
Active Member
Adding to my previous comment, it would be nice to see us pickup some wins against Tech, Kansas , Etc.
I do not quite understand what Tech does or how they play defense the way they do. I don’t know if its all effort or not. But man they are good. Them and Virginia have dispelled the idea that you need superb offense.
I do not quite understand what Tech does or how they play defense the way they do. I don’t know if its all effort or not. But man they are good. Them and Virginia have dispelled the idea that you need superb offense.
Skip Jansen
Active Member
I agree with you. Recruiting is the key to having any sustainable success. Having some stability in the staff is important in the next few years.
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Eight
Member
the biggest concern i have going into conference play this year is the ability to score.
the big 12 might not be great at the top this year, but it is still very good, will be physical, and there won't be any easy nights for the frogs once it starts.
i believe reviewing the sagarin and kenpom numbers there is one, maybe two teams rated lower than the frogs right now and almost every game going forward is going to be a tougher, more athletic opponent than the frogs have faced so far this year.
critical to me that over this next 3-4 weeks where this team has no school and can focus on basketball they iron out these shooting problems and get ready to open with iowa state and the frogs first true road game to manhattan.
as far as next year, i like the idea of rj and farabello paired together, samuel has to return, the frogs must get bigger and more physical at the 4, and i am not sure who is replacing bane and grayer from three but this team must get MUCH better from the outside in this offense
Skip Jansen
Active Member
Effort has some to do with it, but a lot of teams play hard.
What Beard has done is established a culture that emphasizes defense. He recruits players that fit that model. He brings in intelligent kids who have the ability to understand all their defensive coverages, have the ability to grasp their defensive assignments and execute them as part of their defensive game plan.
Part of culture is- what is the minimum you'll accept in your program? The kids they recruit understand that coming in, so that becomes the expectation.
UVA does the same thing. People talk about the "Packline" defense as being the magic formula. In reality, the key is bringing in the type of players who can execute it.
LVH
Active Member
Those 2 teams put all of their effort on defense. All of it. Then run a slowdown offense to keep them from getting worn down and maximize offensive possession efficiency. Players buy in and they recruit players who will execute it
It's similar to our football defense. Our football scheme requires max effort with the idea being you can maintain that defensive intensity every play as long as you limit the number of plays the opposing offense runs. If you have to defend too many plays though, players get worn out and the scheme collapses. But UVA and Tech do a good job at dictating pace.
Skip Jansen
Active Member
Unfortunately, recruiting rankings are flawed.
TCU appears to sit in a basketball hotbed. The reality is, Texas kids are way overvalued by recruiting services.
The Texas AAU people do a great job of promoting the local kids. There are also several well funded AAU programs that provide the kids maximum exposure on the shoe circuits. But, in reality, the results tell a different story.
Kids in the more basketball-centric parts of the country are way better schooled in the fundamentals and how to actually play basketball than they are down here. Lots and lots of streetball being played at the highest level of high school basketball in Texas.
Eight
Member
question concerning prospect evaluation skip.
way, way back in the day when the 5-star camp was really the only big stage where college coaches could see the best of the best prospects matched head to head the story told was it was a huge advantage because you had players of similar size, physical skill sets etc.. going head to head.
now we have the travel teams and national tournament where you get a similar environment in terms of players matching up against player of physical skill sets, size, etc.... a guy like archie who might be playing close to the basket with his high school team gets to play out on the floor against true competition
i understand the defense often times is token, that there really isn't much structure offense, but i have been to a few with friends to watch their kids and you still could see which kids would be willing to compete, who was physically over matched, who could dribble and who could shoot.
ball is the same size, hoop is same diameter and height from the floor etc....so why does it seem there have been the number of misses when you have an environment that allows some comparison
this isn't like a kid who is a highly regarded defensive end prospect who never faces an offensive tackle who is college prospect talent wise during a real game or a hitter in baseball who never faces a pitcher who can throw a breaking pitch for a strike until he gets to college.
basketball to me has some very basic, transferable, individual skills that can be meausured against other college prospects
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