A few quick tidbits I’ve picked up on the road recently:
Reminder that my current view on things remains unchanged:
https://forum.killerfrogs.com/index.php?threads/big-12-expansion.231728/page-10#post-3165141
- If you assume no more moves are made, I do think the PAC 10 will stick together for now. I see a GOR agreement being unlikely, at least without a very short term, exit clauses, or other poison pills to satisfy ORE/Wash/Cal. More on that shortly.
- Big 12 still working hard on expansion options, including a few non power 5 schools. Don’t see anything happening until the BIG wraps up its work.
- I believe, based on some ongoing analysis work I’ve been a part of or privy to, that NBC is likely willing to rework their ND deal. However, the BIG may win out regardless, as their overall offering will be superior and ND folks are worried about playoff access down the road. They have a lot of leverage right now. The number floating around, $75 million a year for 6-7 ND games on NBC, is not as crazy as folks think. NBC could make money on that deal, but it would mean a substantial move into college football and sports overall, are they ready to do that?
- Lots of work going on right now at NBCUniversal to try and chart their path forward. There is a contingent that would love to see three games a day on NBC Saturday’s leading into their late night comedy content, plus a few games on USA and Peacock. ND would be their tent pole team, and the Big 12 is their other partner preference. However, are they willing to pay the premiums, not to mention all the related support costs around broadcasting and studio shows, hosts, etc.? Big $$ decision at a hard time, big gamble. Even if they say yes, Big 12 would still need another partner for their inventory of remaining Tier 2+3 content, but FOX and ESPN have space.
- It is my belief, based on some research I got my hands on, that the BIG Presidents would like to add Oregon, Washington, and Cal to the BIG along with ND. They think those four would round out the conference “perfectly.” Cal being added to the mix has to do with the $$ added from the Bay Area subs to the BIG network, and the belief that adding Cal would be an “institutional fit” and ward off the coming scrutiny and lawsuits. There hasn’t been enough said about this, there is real risk of turmoil around UCLA, and Cal has been working a TON of back channels re: getting in the BIG. None of these three teams are slam dunks, but I think the BIG will pull the trigger if ND hops on. If not, they may decide to wait for the next cycle. Always remember: This conference convinced itself to add Rutgers, they will do lots of crazy things you or I wouldn’t do.
- Big 12 preference is still ASU, Utah, Colo, and Ariz in that order, and then some G5 schools before other P12 members to be honest. Ariz is the most shaky of that group though, I honestly don’t know how the league feels about it overall. The data is shaky.
Lots of moving parts… NBC decision makers holding many fates in their hands right now.