• The KillerFrogs

Has anyone seen my specialty plates?

Well, here we are. Smoke is beginning to clear from this first salvo. A few thoughts to share here, and know I’m going to try to keep to just the two areas that I know well (TV biz and TCU/B12) as I’m just too far from the other leagues politics to comment on some of the finer points out there.

First, I can tell you from a pretty connected position that this move was a shock to just about everybody in the TV industry, and from what I can tell College Athletics overall. The leaders at ESPN I work with were shocked, for instance, they (like me) were under the clear impression the BIG had decided to hold on expansion for now and opt for the group they have for another 5+ years in their new deal.

What changed things? Fox. As I posted elsewhere, this got moving because Fox came to the BIG and said YES this works, and pushed the BIG to consider expansion. A number of teams were considered but USC/UCLA were obviously ahead of the game. This hasn’t been reported, but ND and several other schools have been vetted already by the BIG and Fox folks, and the decision to only move on USC/UCLA was made to “keep powder dry.” Fox/BIG wants to contain this as much as possible and not start a war, but if they can they will take ND. It remains to be seen if they also add a few PAC schools or try to go ACC, but from a network perspective I can tell you USC, UCLA, and ND are all slam dunks for Fox and they are HEAVILY incentivizing the league to get those done. I don’t know every particular of NBC’s deal with ND, but my napkin math tells me that ND could stand to make $30mm+ net more per year in the BIG and the ACC can’t match that without ESPN stepping up big.

The ACC is a mess, and ESPN is in a really tough spot. Their deal with the ACC is really good for ESPN and they have no intention of blowing that up if they can help it. ESPN has even weighed in in recent months with the ACC and some of their more nervous members to emphasize that the GOR is highly enforceable. ESPN is NOT incentivized to trade Clemson from the ACC to the SEC under their new SEC deal terms, and from what I can tell the ACC isn’t going to allow it if it can be helped. I think any notion you see that says “the ACC GOR will fold if/when the ACC loses a bunch of members” is wrong, as they would still have 8-10 remaining & VERY angry members who have incentives in the hundreds of millions of dollars to fight, and they would. Also, remember, the ACC has the ACC network at (almost) full distribution… You think ESPN will fold that? [ deposit from a bull that looks like Art Briles ]. In that hypothetical world where the SEC/BIG try and raid the ACC, ESPN will help the ACC reconstitute by adding membership from the Big 12, PAC, etc. etc. to try and form a primary “third” conference behind the BIG and SEC. In much of my thinking, a lot of roads do tend to lead to this conclusion by the way…

Everyone right now is waiting on the BIG… I, like everybody, was under the impression they were done with their negotiations and things were progressing. Will ND make the call to go? If they do, their paper penalty to the ACC is about $100 million, and I’d guess they would pay $40-80 million after settling. They will make that back in the BIG in net gains after approximately 3-5 seasons, probably survivable. ND is historically very slow to make decisions, that probably won’t change this time around but we shall see. Keep in mind… Most schools would pain to write a check that big, including ND to be honest… It is not an easy decision for a University President. Could TCU write a $80 million check? Honestly, yes, but debt would be involved and I don’t love it.

Are we headed for just two super leagues and every other league is excluded from the CFP? I don’t think so, at least not right now. In some prior analysis of this, both Fox and ESPN came to the quick conclusion that excluding ~half of the football teams currently in D1 would result in far too big a backlash, at least from a competitive perspective. You don’t want, for instance, senators weighing in on this subject. You also would really want/need to have some relegation happen in that model, with the Vandys and Northwesterns getting cut and some bigger/better powers getting in instead, which so far the conference President’s have resisted like it’s the plague. Now, could you see even more unbalanced REVENUE sharing in the new playoff? Oh yes, and keep in mind we already have unbalanced revenue sharing today… there is the power 5 which get X cut, and then the remaining schools who get comparably less $$ even though their shot of winning is very, very low. Expect in 2026 to see this again, with the BIG and SEC using their leverage to get more of the revenue statutorily and the remaining conferences accepting less… To fight this, we really really want to try and get to 3 or 4 power conferences if possible and make those third and fourth as powerful as possible against the BIG and SEC, to try and offset that leverage, but it will be tough regardless. To be clear, as it stands today, I expect the CFP to expand to 8 teams with no auto-qualifiers, and more unbalanced revenue in exchange for continued access. There will be no “premier league breakaway” as I see it. Will the leagues, economically, be completely separated? Oh yes, that’s all but guaranteed already.

One more note on this… Don’t want the BIG and SEC to break away competitively? You then are a HUGE fan of ND staying independent. Huge.

So where does that leave things with the Big 12 and TCU… From the folks I know at TCU, all options are on the table. I do not, at this point, expect an SEC, BIG, or ACC invite, and neither does VBO. Are we open to it? scheiss yes. But while we work for the best outcome we need to be prepared to execute the most realistic. The biggest variable, as I said, is the BIG… I and my peers in the industry today think there are far fewer “seats” left in the SEC or BIG than people think. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t both expand tomorrow to 20+ each, but from a TV revenue perspective there is clear alignment that there isn’t much left to add incremental or even on-par value to those leagues… Relegation would help, but that isn’t on the table yet. ND? Yes. Oregon? Yes. UW, Clemson, UNC, FSU? Probably. Everybody else is fighting to be on-par in the BIG or SEC from a media value perspective, and it would take those conferences “reaching” to have them be added. Now, keep in mind, conference President’s reach and do things that are weird (from my eyes) all the damn time, so that wouldn’t be too peculiar, but for now there just aren’t many options that are slam dunks, at least vs. what the internet would have you believe.

Clemson is NOT a “slam dunk” in the SEC’s eyes.

As things stand at this very second, the PAC and BIG are in the margin of error re: the better long-term home for TCU, but the PAC has two headwinds: their next media deal is going to be clunky due to the PAC 12 Network, and the viewership for west coast football and those institutions interest in pursuing the new world of college football with full energy is… not great. The Big 12 is all in, and has a much cleaner package to sell (with better relationships with lots of media partners). Add to that the uncertainty in the PAC re: ORE and UW, and you just can’t move if you are TCU… The PAC would take TCU tomorrow, I am told (from TCU sources who know), but TCU isn’t going yet.

Let’s presume ND to the BIG gets consummated, and then the BIG adds only one more (Oregon would be my guess), leaving the PAC with 9, I think they add one to get to 10 and stop… that one could be anybody, but SDSU or BYU seem most likely. The Big 12 hasn’t consummated it’s newest GOR yet, though they have LOI’s from all 12 current members to help them negotiate with… It wouldn’t have been possible years ago, but just keep an eye on it. I don’t see TCU moving in this scenario.

There are literally 1000 more scenarios, so I’m not going to try and get through all of them right now. In summary though: This is all moving both slow and fast at the same time, I don’t expect a breakaway league competitively but financially yes it’s already happened, ND is still the next domino (as they have been) and they will move at their own pace, there are fewer seats at the BIG and SEC than people think, and TCU is doing everything it can to be positioned as best as possible but nobody should be under the illusion that an invite to the BIG or SEC is coming anytime soon.
 
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Purp

Active Member
Well, here we are. Smoke is beginning to clear from this first salvo. A few thoughts to share here, and know I’m going to try to keep to just the two areas that I know well (TV biz and TCU/B12) as I’m just too far from the other leagues politics to comment on some of the finer points out there.

First, I can tell you from a pretty connected position that this move was a shock to just about everybody in the TV industry, and from what I can tell College Athletics overall. The leaders at ESPN I work with were shocked, for instance, they (like me) were under the clear impression the BIG had decided to hold on expansion for now and opt for the group they have for another 5+ years in their new deal.

What changed things? Fox. As I posted elsewhere, this got moving because Fox came to the BIG and said YES this works, and pushed the BIG to consider expansion. A number of teams were considered but USC/UCLA were obviously ahead of the game. This hasn’t been reported, but ND and several other schools have been vetted already by the BIG and Fox folks, and the decision to only move on USC/UCLA was made to “keep powder dry.” Fox/BIG wants to contain this as much as possible and not start a war, but if they can they will take ND. It remains to be seen if they also add a few PAC schools or try to go ACC, but from a network perspective I can tell you USC, UCLA, and ND are all slam dunks for Fox and they are HEAVILY incentivizing the league to get those done. I don’t know every particular of NBC’s deal, but my napkin math tells me that ND could stand to make $30mm+ net more per year in the BIG and the ACC can’t match that without ESPN stepping up big.

The ACC is a mess, and ESPN is in a really tough spot. Their deal with the ACC is really good for ESPN and they have no intention of blowing that up if they can help it. ESPN has even weighed in in recent months with the ACC and some of their more nervous members to emphasize that the GOR is highly enforceable. ESPN is NOT incentivized to trade Clemson from the ACC to the SEC under their new SEC deal terms, and from what I can tell the ACC isn’t going to allow it if it can be helped. I think any notion you see that says “the ACC GOR will fold if/when the ACC loses a bunch of members” is wrong, as they would still have 8-10 remaining & VERY angry members who have incentives in the hundreds of millions of dollars to fight, and they would. Also, remembers, the ACC has the ACC network at (almost) full distribution… You think ESPN will fold that? [ deposit from a bull that looks like Art Briles ]. In that hypothetical world where the SEC/BIG try and raid the ACC then ESPN will help the ACC reconstitute big adding membership from the Big 12, PAC, etc. etc. to try and form a primary “third” conference behind the BIG and SEC. In much of my thinking, a lot of roads do tend to lead to this conclusion by the way…

Everyone right now is waiting on the BIG… I, like everybody, was under the impression they were done with their negotiations and things were progressing. Will ND make the call to go? If they do, their paper penalty to the ACC is about $100 million, and I’d guess they would pay $40-80 million after settling. They will make that back in the BIG in net gains after approximately 3-5 seasons, probably survivable. ND is historically very slow to make decisions, that probably won’t change this time around but we shall see. Keep in mind… Most schools would pain to write a check that big, including ND to be honest… It is not an easy decision for a University President. Could TCU write a $80 million check? Honestly, yes, but debt would be involved and I don’t love it.

Are we headed for just two super leagues and every other league is excluded from the CFP? I don’t think so, at least not right now. In some prior analysis of this, both Fox and ESPN came to the quick conclusion that excluding ~half of the football teams currently in D1 would result in far too big a backlash, at least from a competitive perspective. You don’t want, for instance, senators weighing in on this subject. You also would really want/need to have some relegation happen in that model, with the Vandys and Northwesterns getting cut and some bigger/better powers getting in instead, which so far the conference President’s have resisted like it’s the plague. Now, could you see even more unbalanced REVENUE sharing in the new playoff? Oh yes, and keep in mind we already have unbalanced revenue sharing today… there is the power 5 which get X cut, and then the remaining schools who get comparably less $$ even though their shot of winning is very, very low. Expect in 2026 to see this again, with the BIG and SEC using their leverage to get more of the revenue statutorily and the remaining conferences accepting less… To fight this, we really really want to try and get to 3 or 4 power conferences if possible and make those third and fourth as powerful as possible against the BIG and SEC, to try and offset that leverage, but it will be tough regardless. To be clear, as it stands today, I expect the CFP to expand to 8 teams with no auto-qualifiers, and more unbalanced revenue in exchange for continued access. There will be no “premier league breakaway” as I see it. Will the leagues, economically, be completely separated? Oh yes, that’s all but guaranteed already.

One more note on this… Don’t want the BIG and SEC to break away competitively? You then are a HUGE fan of ND staying independent. Huge.

So where does that leave things with the Big 12 and TCU… From the folks I know at TCU, all options are on the table. I do not, at this point, expect an SEC, BIG, or ACC invite, and neither does VBO. Are we open to it? scheiss yes. But while we work for the best outcome we need to be prepared to execute the most realistic. The biggest variable, as I said, is the BIG… I and my peers in the industry today think there are far fewer “seats” left in the SEC or BIG than people think. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t both expand tomorrow to 20+ each, but from a TV revenue perspective there is clear alignment that there isn’t much left to add incremental or even on-par value to those leagues… Relegation would help, but that isn’t on the table yet. ND? Yes. Oregon? Yes. UW, Clemson, UNC, FSU? Probably. Everybody else is fighting to be on-par in the BIG or SEC from a media value perspective, and it would take those conferences “reaching” to have them be added. Now, keep in mind, conference President’s reach and do things that are weird (from my eyes) all the damn time, so that wouldn’t be too peculiar, but for now there just aren’t many options that are slam dunks, at least vs. what the internet would have you believe.

Clemson is NOT a “slam dunk” in the SEC’s eyes.

As things stand at this very second, the PAC and BIG are in the margin of error re: the better long-term home for TCU, but the PAC has two headwinds: their next media deal is going to be clunky due to the PAC 12 Network, and the viewership for west coast football and those institutions interest in pursuing the new world of college football with full energy is… not great. The Big 12 is all in, and has a much cleaner package to sell (with better relationships with lots of media partners). Add to that the uncertainty in the PAC re: ORE and UW, and you just can’t move if you are TCU… The PAC would take TCU tomorrow, I am told (from TCU sources who know), but TCU isn’t going yet.

Let’s presume ND to the BIG gets consummated, and then the BIG adds only one more (Oregon would be my guess), leaving the PAC with 9, I think they add one to get to 10 and stop… that one could be anybody, but SDSU or BYU seem most likely. The Big 12 hasn’t consummated it’s newest GOR yet, though they have LOI’s from all current members to help them negotiate with… It wouldn’t have been possible years ago, but just keep an eye on it. I don’t see TCU moving in this scenario.

There are literally 1000 more scenarios, so I’m not going to try and get through all of them right now. In summary though: This is all moving both slow and fast at the same time, I don’t expect a breakaway league competitively but financially yes it’s already happened, ND is still the next domino (as they have been) and they will move at their own pace, there are fewer seats at the BIG and SEC than people think, and TCU is doing everything it can to be positioned as best as possible but nobody should be under the illusion that an invite to the BIG or SEC is coming anytime soon.
My feeling since this was announced is that the B12 should be grabbing 4 PAC schools now. That would leave the PAC pretty well useless and vulnerable to losing the rest of its bigger brands immediately. That would set off some difficult decisions in ACC land. If it's too expensive for them to break away then the musical chairs would stop for several more years. But if it's not then the B12 would get the best of those left after ACC dissolution. We'd end up with 3 conferences with roughly 20 programs each.

After that the next step is one super league and the machinations behind making that happen will be fascinating. That will require significant back stabbing within conferences and collusion between TV network big wigs, blue bloods interested only in the almighty dollar, and a phalanx of lawyers. I don't expect that will happen quickly. Until it happens I see 3 major conferences in football with roughly 60 total teams.
 
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Paul in uhh

Active Member
My feeling since this was announced is that the B12 should be grabbing 4 PAC schools now. That would leave the PAC pretty well useless and vulnerable to losing the rest of its bigger brands immediately. That would set off some difficult decisions in ACC land. If it's too expensive for them to break away then the musical chairs would stop for several more years. But if it's not then the B12 would get the best of those left after ACC dissolution. We'd end up with 3 conferences with roughly 20 programs each.

After that the next step is one super league and the machinations behind making that happen will be fascinating. That will require significant back stabbing within conferences and collusion between TV network big wigs, blue bloods interested only in the almighty dollar, and a phalanx of lawyers. I don't expect that will happen quickly. Until it happens I see 3 major conferences in football with roughly 60 total teams.
Bingo - the pac is now on life support. Kill ‘em before they regain consciousness. Take as many of their schools as you can and solidify the b12
 

mcdaddy

Active Member
Was visiting with my grown daughter tonight and the TV was paused in the background. The screen was frozen on some heavy set girl who was a guest on a talk show. She said, “Who is that? Ariana “Mas” Grande?”
I was pretty proud.
The apple doesn’t fall far from the tree.
 

Purp

Active Member
There are literally 1000 more scenarios, so I’m not going to try and get through all of them right now. In summary though: This is all moving both slow and fast at the same time, I don’t expect a breakaway league competitively but financially yes it’s already happened, ND is still the next domino (as they have been) and they will move at their own pace, there are fewer seats at the BIG and SEC than people think, and TCU is doing everything it can to be positioned as best as possible but nobody should be under the illusion that an invite to the BIG or SEC is coming anytime soon.
One question...

If ND goes to the B1G and then U Dub, Oregon, and Stanford follow, what can the SEC realistically add that could compete with that? We're talking about 2 major conferences after all is said and done, but I'm not so sure UNC, Clemson, FSU or anything else in the ACC could add much to the SEC bc they've already penetrated and own all of those areas. Could we more realistically be looking at 3 different conferences in 3 different tiers? Sure, the SEC is widely viewed to have the best football teams so they wouldn't be left out of playoff inclusion, but they wouldn't be able to get close to the payout per school that the B1G would be getting in this scenario.

It would seem more likely that the SEC doesn't add anybody in response bc the schools that could add real value are already in the B1G. What would make more sense, if I'm the SEC, is to get really aggressive right now. Nobody in the ACC really adds value, but maybe Oregon, Stanford, U Dub, and ND do. Then the SEC could supercede the B1G in payout per school.

Just spitballing here, but it seems like the SEC would be the biggest loser letting the B1G make all these moves uncontested. I could see the B12 being almost as big of a winner if they add 4+ Pac schools. If the B1G snipes some ACC schools like Clemson and UNC then the B12 wins even bigger with 4 PAC schools and 2-4 ACC schools. Unlike the SEC, they'd have multiple institutions in 3 or 4 time zones that could compete directly with the B1G all day every Saturday. And more of those match-ups would actually be good games than what the B1G would be selling.
 
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HG73

Active Member
Well, here we are. Smoke is beginning to clear from this first salvo. A few thoughts to share here, and know I’m going to try to keep to just the two areas that I know well (TV biz and TCU/B12) as I’m just too far from the other leagues politics to comment on some of the finer points out there.

First, I can tell you from a pretty connected position that this move was a shock to just about everybody in the TV industry, and from what I can tell College Athletics overall. The leaders at ESPN I work with were shocked, for instance, they (like me) were under the clear impression the BIG had decided to hold on expansion for now and opt for the group they have for another 5+ years in their new deal.

What changed things? Fox. As I posted elsewhere, this got moving because Fox came to the BIG and said YES this works, and pushed the BIG to consider expansion. A number of teams were considered but USC/UCLA were obviously ahead of the game. This hasn’t been reported, but ND and several other schools have been vetted already by the BIG and Fox folks, and the decision to only move on USC/UCLA was made to “keep powder dry.” Fox/BIG wants to contain this as much as possible and not start a war, but if they can they will take ND. It remains to be seen if they also add a few PAC schools or try to go ACC, but from a network perspective I can tell you USC, UCLA, and ND are all slam dunks for Fox and they are HEAVILY incentivizing the league to get those done. I don’t know every particular of NBC’s deal, but my napkin math tells me that ND could stand to make $30mm+ net more per year in the BIG and the ACC can’t match that without ESPN stepping up big.

The ACC is a mess, and ESPN is in a really tough spot. Their deal with the ACC is really good for ESPN and they have no intention of blowing that up if they can help it. ESPN has even weighed in in recent months with the ACC and some of their more nervous members to emphasize that the GOR is highly enforceable. ESPN is NOT incentivized to trade Clemson from the ACC to the SEC under their new SEC deal terms, and from what I can tell the ACC isn’t going to allow it if it can be helped. I think any notion you see that says “the ACC GOR will fold if/when the ACC loses a bunch of members” is wrong, as they would still have 8-10 remaining & VERY angry members who have incentives in the hundreds of millions of dollars to fight, and they would. Also, remembers, the ACC has the ACC network at (almost) full distribution… You think ESPN will fold that? [ deposit from a bull that looks like Art Briles ]. In that hypothetical world where the SEC/BIG try and raid the ACC then ESPN will help the ACC reconstitute big adding membership from the Big 12, PAC, etc. etc. to try and form a primary “third” conference behind the BIG and SEC. In much of my thinking, a lot of roads do tend to lead to this conclusion by the way…

Everyone right now is waiting on the BIG… I, like everybody, was under the impression they were done with their negotiations and things were progressing. Will ND make the call to go? If they do, their paper penalty to the ACC is about $100 million, and I’d guess they would pay $40-80 million after settling. They will make that back in the BIG in net gains after approximately 3-5 seasons, probably survivable. ND is historically very slow to make decisions, that probably won’t change this time around but we shall see. Keep in mind… Most schools would pain to write a check that big, including ND to be honest… It is not an easy decision for a University President. Could TCU write a $80 million check? Honestly, yes, but debt would be involved and I don’t love it.

Are we headed for just two super leagues and every other league is excluded from the CFP? I don’t think so, at least not right now. In some prior analysis of this, both Fox and ESPN came to the quick conclusion that excluding ~half of the football teams currently in D1 would result in far too big a backlash, at least from a competitive perspective. You don’t want, for instance, senators weighing in on this subject. You also would really want/need to have some relegation happen in that model, with the Vandys and Northwesterns getting cut and some bigger/better powers getting in instead, which so far the conference President’s have resisted like it’s the plague. Now, could you see even more unbalanced REVENUE sharing in the new playoff? Oh yes, and keep in mind we already have unbalanced revenue sharing today… there is the power 5 which get X cut, and then the remaining schools who get comparably less $$ even though their shot of winning is very, very low. Expect in 2026 to see this again, with the BIG and SEC using their leverage to get more of the revenue statutorily and the remaining conferences accepting less… To fight this, we really really want to try and get to 3 or 4 power conferences if possible and make those third and fourth as powerful as possible against the BIG and SEC, to try and offset that leverage, but it will be tough regardless. To be clear, as it stands today, I expect the CFP to expand to 8 teams with no auto-qualifiers, and more unbalanced revenue in exchange for continued access. There will be no “premier league breakaway” as I see it. Will the leagues, economically, be completely separated? Oh yes, that’s all but guaranteed already.

One more note on this… Don’t want the BIG and SEC to break away competitively? You then are a HUGE fan of ND staying independent. Huge.

So where does that leave things with the Big 12 and TCU… From the folks I know at TCU, all options are on the table. I do not, at this point, expect an SEC, BIG, or ACC invite, and neither does VBO. Are we open to it? scheiss yes. But while we work for the best outcome we need to be prepared to execute the most realistic. The biggest variable, as I said, is the BIG… I and my peers in the industry today think there are far fewer “seats” left in the SEC or BIG than people think. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t both expand tomorrow to 20+ each, but from a TV revenue perspective there is clear alignment that there isn’t much left to add incremental or even on-par value to those leagues… Relegation would help, but that isn’t on the table yet. ND? Yes. Oregon? Yes. UW, Clemson, UNC, FSU? Probably. Everybody else is fighting to be on-par in the BIG or SEC from a media value perspective, and it would take those conferences “reaching” to have them be added. Now, keep in mind, conference President’s reach and do things that are weird (from my eyes) all the damn time, so that wouldn’t be too peculiar, but for now there just aren’t many options that are slam dunks, at least vs. what the internet would have you believe.

Clemson is NOT a “slam dunk” in the SEC’s eyes.

As things stand at this very second, the PAC and BIG are in the margin of error re: the better long-term home for TCU, but the PAC has two headwinds: their next media deal is going to be clunky due to the PAC 12 Network, and the viewership for west coast football and those institutions interest in pursuing the new world of college football with full energy is… not great. The Big 12 is all in, and has a much cleaner package to sell (with better relationships with lots of media partners). Add to that the uncertainty in the PAC re: ORE and UW, and you just can’t move if you are TCU… The PAC would take TCU tomorrow, I am told (from TCU sources who know), but TCU isn’t going yet.

Let’s presume ND to the BIG gets consummated, and then the BIG adds only one more (Oregon would be my guess), leaving the PAC with 9, I think they add one to get to 10 and stop… that one could be anybody, but SDSU or BYU seem most likely. The Big 12 hasn’t consummated it’s newest GOR yet, though they have LOI’s from all current members to help them negotiate with… It wouldn’t have been possible years ago, but just keep an eye on it. I don’t see TCU moving in this scenario.

There are literally 1000 more scenarios, so I’m not going to try and get through all of them right now. In summary though: This is all moving both slow and fast at the same time, I don’t expect a breakaway league competitively but financially yes it’s already happened, ND is still the next domino (as they have been) and they will move at their own pace, there are fewer seats at the BIG and SEC than people think, and TCU is doing everything it can to be positioned as best as possible but nobody should be under the illusion that an invite to the BIG or SEC is coming anytime soon.
As always, thanks for your invaluable insight. As I have long thought there aren't many teams left that can bring $100mil to the B1GSEC. 4 or 5 teams, so that's where expansion by the B1GSEC will stop even if it gets that far. Add the ACC GOR and there are even fewer realistic candidates.

Honestly do USC & UCLA really bring $100mil each to the B1G? Oregon? Washington?

Does the Big12 really have a shot at the mountain schools? If the B1G doesn't take Oregon and Washington?

Thanks again, keep it coming. We appreciate you.
 

Hoosierfrog

Tier 1
Ron Burgundy Anchorman GIF

Exactly the same thing…

United States Animation GIF by xponentialdesign
 
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One question...

If ND goes to the B1G and then U Dub, Oregon, and Stanford follow, what can the SEC realistically add that could compete with that? We're talking about 2 major conferences after all is said and done, but I'm not so sure UNC, Clemson, FSU or anything else in the ACC could add much to the SEC bc they've already penetrated and own all of those areas. Could we more realistically be looking at 3 different conferences in 3 different tiers? Sure, the SEC is widely viewed to have the best football teams so they wouldn't be left out of playoff inclusion, but they wouldn't be able to get close to the payout per school that the B1G would be getting in this scenario.

It would seem more likely that the SEC doesn't add anybody in response bc the schools that could add real value are already in the B1G. What would make more sense, if I'm the SEC, is to get really aggressive right now. Nobody in the SEC really adds value, but maybe Oregon, Stanford, U Dub, and ND do. Then the SEC could supercede the B1G in payout per school.

Just spitballing here, but it seems like the SEC would be the biggest loser letting the B1G make all these moves uncontested. I could see the B12 being almost as big of a winner if they add 4+ Pac schools. If the B1G snipes some ACC schools like Clemson and UNC then the B12 wins even bigger with 4 PAC schools and 2-4 ACC schools. Unlike the SEC, they'd have multiple institutions in 3 or 4 time zones that could compete directly with the B1G all day every Saturday. And more of those match-ups would actually be good games than what the B1G would be selling.
They have been looking at the ACC schools but that’ll be tough… there are 2, maybe 4 options there.

While all the talk has been about the BIG’s new deal, the SEC’s new deal might pass it to be honest, and that’s just with TX/OU.
 
As always, thanks for your invaluable insight. As I have long thought there aren't many teams left that can bring $100mil to the B1GSEC. 4 or 5 teams, so that's where expansion by the B1GSEC will stop even if it gets that far. Add the ACC GOR and there are even fewer realistic candidates.

Honestly do USC & UCLA really bring $100mil each to the B1G? Oregon? Washington?

Does the Big12 really have a shot at the mountain schools? If the B1G doesn't take Oregon and Washington?

Thanks again, keep it coming. We appreciate you.
USC and UCLA are both great value adds.

Big 12 adding the mountain schools? Of course. Nobody is happy in the PAC.
 

Purp

Active Member
While all the talk has been about the BIG’s new deal, the SEC’s new deal might pass it to be honest, and that’s just with TX/OU.
If that's the case would the SEC get value from Clemson or UNC or FSU? I guess what I'm wondering is if Clemson, for example, has a fixed value regardless of conference or if it's relative based on the conference looking at them. It almost sounds like the SEC could be outgrowing any school from the ACC with the addition of oUt.

I may be missing something, but I don't view UNC as a blue blood in football and Clemson/FSU are really borderline in that regard. The number of blue bloods in football are closer to 1 dozen than 2. Are either of them going to add more per school than the new SEC deal with oUt? If not does the SEC make that move and reduce payout per school? The SEC is already in all of those states, for the most part, so it would seem they don't get as much marginal improvement by adding them.

Meanwhile, the B1G isn't anywhere near those states so it could stand to benefit far more from adding a Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc. than the SEC could.

Where I'm going with all this is the idea that maybe the SEC is superior to the B1G in every regard after the new TV deals and has no incentive to expand further. If that's true then maybe that provides incentive for the B1G to not add any other PAC schools. The only way the B1G could match SEC is to add the best of the ACC when the GOR is less onerous. That could be a very long time and provide a healthy amount of time for a B12 with Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, and U Dub to coalesce into a near peer to the other two.

The thing you've taught me the last week that I hadn't considered much is how big a player Fox is here. We've always focused so much on ESPN as the owner of college football, but as long as Fox owns the B1G they'll be a huge impediment to a super conference break away. And if CBS or NBC build up a valuable 3rd conference it could all but prevent such a breakaway from happening. It'll take a lot of 4D chess and subterfuge to achieve a super league because of Fox.
 
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If that's the case would the SEC get value from Clemson or UNC or FSU? I guess what I'm wondering is if Clemson, for example, has a fixed value regardless of conference or if it's relative based on the conference looking at them. It almost sounds like the SEC could be outgrowing any school from the ACC with the addition of oUt.

I may be missing something, but I don't view UNC as a blue blood in football and Clemson/FSU are really borderline in that regard. The number of blue bloods in football are closer to 1 dozen than 2. Are either of them going to add more per school than the new SEC deal with oUt? If not does the SEC make that move and reduce payout per school? The SEC is already in all of those states, for the most part, so it would seem they don't get as much marginal improvement by adding them.

Meanwhile, the B1G isn't anywhere near those states so it could stand to benefit far more from adding a Clemson, FSU, UNC, etc. than the SEC could.

Where I'm going with all this is the idea that maybe the SEC is superior to the B1G in every regard after the new TV deals and has no incentive to expand further. If that's true then maybe that provides incentive for the B1G to not add any other PAC schools. The only way the B1G could match SEC is to add the best of the ACC when the GOR is less onerous. That could be a very long time and provide a healthy amount of time for a B12 with Arizona, ASU, Utah, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon, and U Dub to coalesce into a near peer to the other two.

The thing you've taught me the last week that I hadn't considered much is how big a player Fox is here. We've always focused so much on ESPN as the owner of college football, but as long as Fox owns the B1G they'll be a huge impediment to a super conference break away. And if CBS or NBC build up a valuable 3rd conference it could all but prevent such a breakaway from happening. It'll take a lot of 4D chess and subterfuge to achieve a super league because of Fox.
Do those ACC schools have “value” to the SEC? Yes, some, just not a slam dunk. As I said before, conference leaders and Chancellors often do things that don’t make perfect sense economically, but might competitively, or regionally, or “traditionally.” That’s where CLEM and FSU fit with the SEC. UNC moreso for the BIG.
 

vicarfrog

Active Member
Well, here we are. Smoke is beginning to clear from this first salvo. A few thoughts to share here, and know I’m going to try to keep to just the two areas that I know well (TV biz and TCU/B12) as I’m just too far from the other leagues politics to comment on some of the finer points out there.

First, I can tell you from a pretty connected position that this move was a shock to just about everybody in the TV industry, and from what I can tell College Athletics overall. The leaders at ESPN I work with were shocked, for instance, they (like me) were under the clear impression the BIG had decided to hold on expansion for now and opt for the group they have for another 5+ years in their new deal.

What changed things? Fox. As I posted elsewhere, this got moving because Fox came to the BIG and said YES this works, and pushed the BIG to consider expansion. A number of teams were considered but USC/UCLA were obviously ahead of the game. This hasn’t been reported, but ND and several other schools have been vetted already by the BIG and Fox folks, and the decision to only move on USC/UCLA was made to “keep powder dry.” Fox/BIG wants to contain this as much as possible and not start a war, but if they can they will take ND. It remains to be seen if they also add a few PAC schools or try to go ACC, but from a network perspective I can tell you USC, UCLA, and ND are all slam dunks for Fox and they are HEAVILY incentivizing the league to get those done. I don’t know every particular of NBC’s deal with ND, but my napkin math tells me that ND could stand to make $30mm+ net more per year in the BIG and the ACC can’t match that without ESPN stepping up big.

The ACC is a mess, and ESPN is in a really tough spot. Their deal with the ACC is really good for ESPN and they have no intention of blowing that up if they can help it. ESPN has even weighed in in recent months with the ACC and some of their more nervous members to emphasize that the GOR is highly enforceable. ESPN is NOT incentivized to trade Clemson from the ACC to the SEC under their new SEC deal terms, and from what I can tell the ACC isn’t going to allow it if it can be helped. I think any notion you see that says “the ACC GOR will fold if/when the ACC loses a bunch of members” is wrong, as they would still have 8-10 remaining & VERY angry members who have incentives in the hundreds of millions of dollars to fight, and they would. Also, remember, the ACC has the ACC network at (almost) full distribution… You think ESPN will fold that? [ deposit from a bull that looks like Art Briles ]. In that hypothetical world where the SEC/BIG try and raid the ACC, ESPN will help the ACC reconstitute by adding membership from the Big 12, PAC, etc. etc. to try and form a primary “third” conference behind the BIG and SEC. In much of my thinking, a lot of roads do tend to lead to this conclusion by the way…

Everyone right now is waiting on the BIG… I, like everybody, was under the impression they were done with their negotiations and things were progressing. Will ND make the call to go? If they do, their paper penalty to the ACC is about $100 million, and I’d guess they would pay $40-80 million after settling. They will make that back in the BIG in net gains after approximately 3-5 seasons, probably survivable. ND is historically very slow to make decisions, that probably won’t change this time around but we shall see. Keep in mind… Most schools would pain to write a check that big, including ND to be honest… It is not an easy decision for a University President. Could TCU write a $80 million check? Honestly, yes, but debt would be involved and I don’t love it.

Are we headed for just two super leagues and every other league is excluded from the CFP? I don’t think so, at least not right now. In some prior analysis of this, both Fox and ESPN came to the quick conclusion that excluding ~half of the football teams currently in D1 would result in far too big a backlash, at least from a competitive perspective. You don’t want, for instance, senators weighing in on this subject. You also would really want/need to have some relegation happen in that model, with the Vandys and Northwesterns getting cut and some bigger/better powers getting in instead, which so far the conference President’s have resisted like it’s the plague. Now, could you see even more unbalanced REVENUE sharing in the new playoff? Oh yes, and keep in mind we already have unbalanced revenue sharing today… there is the power 5 which get X cut, and then the remaining schools who get comparably less $$ even though their shot of winning is very, very low. Expect in 2026 to see this again, with the BIG and SEC using their leverage to get more of the revenue statutorily and the remaining conferences accepting less… To fight this, we really really want to try and get to 3 or 4 power conferences if possible and make those third and fourth as powerful as possible against the BIG and SEC, to try and offset that leverage, but it will be tough regardless. To be clear, as it stands today, I expect the CFP to expand to 8 teams with no auto-qualifiers, and more unbalanced revenue in exchange for continued access. There will be no “premier league breakaway” as I see it. Will the leagues, economically, be completely separated? Oh yes, that’s all but guaranteed already.

One more note on this… Don’t want the BIG and SEC to break away competitively? You then are a HUGE fan of ND staying independent. Huge.

So where does that leave things with the Big 12 and TCU… From the folks I know at TCU, all options are on the table. I do not, at this point, expect an SEC, BIG, or ACC invite, and neither does VBO. Are we open to it? scheiss yes. But while we work for the best outcome we need to be prepared to execute the most realistic. The biggest variable, as I said, is the BIG… I and my peers in the industry today think there are far fewer “seats” left in the SEC or BIG than people think. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t both expand tomorrow to 20+ each, but from a TV revenue perspective there is clear alignment that there isn’t much left to add incremental or even on-par value to those leagues… Relegation would help, but that isn’t on the table yet. ND? Yes. Oregon? Yes. UW, Clemson, UNC, FSU? Probably. Everybody else is fighting to be on-par in the BIG or SEC from a media value perspective, and it would take those conferences “reaching” to have them be added. Now, keep in mind, conference President’s reach and do things that are weird (from my eyes) all the damn time, so that wouldn’t be too peculiar, but for now there just aren’t many options that are slam dunks, at least vs. what the internet would have you believe.

Clemson is NOT a “slam dunk” in the SEC’s eyes.

As things stand at this very second, the PAC and BIG are in the margin of error re: the better long-term home for TCU, but the PAC has two headwinds: their next media deal is going to be clunky due to the PAC 12 Network, and the viewership for west coast football and those institutions interest in pursuing the new world of college football with full energy is… not great. The Big 12 is all in, and has a much cleaner package to sell (with better relationships with lots of media partners). Add to that the uncertainty in the PAC re: ORE and UW, and you just can’t move if you are TCU… The PAC would take TCU tomorrow, I am told (from TCU sources who know), but TCU isn’t going yet.

Let’s presume ND to the BIG gets consummated, and then the BIG adds only one more (Oregon would be my guess), leaving the PAC with 9, I think they add one to get to 10 and stop… that one could be anybody, but SDSU or BYU seem most likely. The Big 12 hasn’t consummated it’s newest GOR yet, though they have LOI’s from all 12 current members to help them negotiate with… It wouldn’t have been possible years ago, but just keep an eye on it. I don’t see TCU moving in this scenario.

There are literally 1000 more scenarios, so I’m not going to try and get through all of them right now. In summary though: This is all moving both slow and fast at the same time, I don’t expect a breakaway league competitively but financially yes it’s already happened, ND is still the next domino (as they have been) and they will move at their own pace, there are fewer seats at the BIG and SEC than people think, and TCU is doing everything it can to be positioned as best as possible but nobody should be under the illusion that an invite to the BIG or SEC is coming anytime soon.

Thank you, thank you, thank you!

You keep us sane, but also with our heads on a swivel.

I shall now just chill and let it all unfold and pull for ND to stay independent.
 

vicarfrog

Active Member
USC and UCLA are both great value adds.

Big 12 adding the mountain schools? Of course. Nobody is happy in the PAC.

So would it be fair to say this is ideal:

Notre Dame to stays independent

ACC to stay unraided

Big 12 to solidify itself further through acquiring Arizona/St., Colorado, & Utah?

Pac holds but continues a parachute decline

Is there anything that would fall into the category of "we need these things NOT to happen or it could be bad...very, very bad for TCU and/or college football?
 
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