• The KillerFrogs

Has anyone seen my specialty plates?

Old Greg

Active Member
I could have sworn I left my keys in here. I can't find them anywhere.

Oh, hi there. It's me, GeoFrog. You may remember me from old posts like "look-a-likes", "my trip to the dentist," and summoning Old Gregg at random times. I know it's been a while since we chatted, but I thought I might stop by and see what has been going on for the last few years. Hopefully you all are all doing well. As much as I like rocks, I feel the one I have been living under for the last few years had grown stale, so I am fighting my introverted tendencies and crawling back out into Frog Society. Hopefully I'll see you around.


Keeping it awkward,

GeoFrog
9K1s.gif

I'm Old Gregg!!
 

Ron Swanson

Ticket Exchange Pass
I could have sworn I left my keys in here. I can't find them anywhere.

Oh, hi there. It's me, GeoFrog. You may remember me from old posts like "look-a-likes", "my trip to the dentist," and summoning Old Gregg at random times. I know it's been a while since we chatted, but I thought I might stop by and see what has been going on for the last few years. Hopefully you all are all doing well. As much as I like rocks, I feel the one I have been living under for the last few years had grown stale, so I am fighting my introverted tendencies and crawling back out into Frog Society. Hopefully I'll see you around.


Keeping it awkward,

GeoFrog
I had two kids and got cancer
 

Purp

Active Member
I could have sworn I left my keys in here. I can't find them anywhere.

Oh, hi there. It's me, GeoFrog. You may remember me from old posts like "look-a-likes", "my trip to the dentist," and summoning Old Gregg at random times. I know it's been a while since we chatted, but I thought I might stop by and see what has been going on for the last few years. Hopefully you all are all doing well. As much as I like rocks, I feel the one I have been living under for the last few years had grown stale, so I am fighting my introverted tendencies and crawling back out into Frog Society. Hopefully I'll see you around.


Keeping it awkward,

GeoFrog
This looser again?
 
A few quick tidbits I’ve picked up on the road recently:

Reminder that my current view on things remains unchanged: https://forum.killerfrogs.com/index.php?threads/big-12-expansion.231728/page-10#post-3165141

- If you assume no more moves are made, I do think the PAC 10 will stick together for now. I see a GOR agreement being unlikely, at least without a very short term, exit clauses, or other poison pills to satisfy ORE/Wash/Cal. More on that shortly.

- Big 12 still working hard on expansion options, including a few non power 5 schools. Don’t see anything happening until the BIG wraps up its work.

- I believe, based on some ongoing analysis work I’ve been a part of or privy to, that NBC is likely willing to rework their ND deal. However, the BIG may win out regardless, as their overall offering will be superior and ND folks are worried about playoff access down the road. They have a lot of leverage right now. The number floating around, $75 million a year for 6-7 ND games on NBC, is not as crazy as folks think. NBC could make money on that deal, but it would mean a substantial move into college football and sports overall, are they ready to do that?

- Lots of work going on right now at NBCUniversal to try and chart their path forward. There is a contingent that would love to see three games a day on NBC Saturday’s leading into their late night comedy content, plus a few games on USA and Peacock. ND would be their tent pole team, and the Big 12 is their other partner preference. However, are they willing to pay the premiums, not to mention all the related support costs around broadcasting and studio shows, hosts, etc.? Big $$ decision at a hard time, big gamble. Even if they say yes, Big 12 would still need another partner for their inventory of remaining Tier 2+3 content, but FOX and ESPN have space.

- It is my belief, based on some research I got my hands on, that the BIG Presidents would like to add Oregon, Washington, and Cal to the BIG along with ND. They think those four would round out the conference “perfectly.” Cal being added to the mix has to do with the $$ added from the Bay Area subs to the BIG network, and the belief that adding Cal would be an “institutional fit” and ward off the coming scrutiny and lawsuits. There hasn’t been enough said about this, there is real risk of turmoil around UCLA, and Cal has been working a TON of back channels re: getting in the BIG. None of these three teams are slam dunks, but I think the BIG will pull the trigger if ND hops on. If not, they may decide to wait for the next cycle. Always remember: This conference convinced itself to add Rutgers, they will do lots of crazy things you or I wouldn’t do.

- Big 12 preference is still ASU, Utah, Colo, and Ariz in that order, and then some G5 schools before other P12 members to be honest. Ariz is the most shaky of that group though, I honestly don’t know how the league feels about it overall. The data is shaky.

Lots of moving parts… NBC decision makers holding many fates in their hands right now.
 

HG73

Active Member
A few quick tidbits I’ve picked up on the road recently:

Reminder that my current view on things remains unchanged: https://forum.killerfrogs.com/index.php?threads/big-12-expansion.231728/page-10#post-3165141

- If you assume no more moves are made, I do think the PAC 10 will stick together for now. I see a GOR agreement being unlikely, at least without a very short term, exit clauses, or other poison pills to satisfy ORE/Wash/Cal. More on that shortly.

- Big 12 still working hard on expansion options, including a few non power 5 schools. Don’t see anything happening until the BIG wraps up its work.

- I believe, based on some ongoing analysis work I’ve been a part of or privy to, that NBC is likely willing to rework their ND deal. However, the BIG may win out regardless, as their overall offering will be superior and ND folks are worried about playoff access down the road. They have a lot of leverage right now. The number floating around, $75 million a year for 6-7 ND games on NBC, is not as crazy as folks think. NBC could make money on that deal, but it would mean a substantial move into college football and sports overall, are they ready to do that?

- Lots of work going on right now at NBCUniversal to try and chart their path forward. There is a contingent that would love to see three games a day on NBC Saturday’s leading into their late night comedy content, plus a few games on USA and Peacock. ND would be their tent pole team, and the Big 12 is their other partner preference. However, are they willing to pay the premiums, not to mention all the related support costs around broadcasting and studio shows, hosts, etc.? Big $$ decision at a hard time, big gamble. Even if they say yes, Big 12 would still need another partner for their inventory of remaining Tier 2+3 content, but FOX and ESPN have space.

- It is my belief, based on some research I got my hands on, that the BIG Presidents would like to add Oregon, Washington, and Cal to the BIG along with ND. They think those four would round out the conference “perfectly.” Cal being added to the mix has to do with the $$ added from the Bay Area subs to the BIG network, and the belief that adding Cal would be an “institutional fit” and ward off the coming scrutiny and lawsuits. There hasn’t been enough said about this, there is real risk of turmoil around UCLA, and Cal has been working a TON of back channels re: getting in the BIG. None of these three teams are slam dunks, but I think the BIG will pull the trigger if ND hops on. If not, they may decide to wait for the next cycle. Always remember: This conference convinced itself to add Rutgers, they will do lots of crazy things you or I wouldn’t do.

- Big 12 preference is still ASU, Utah, Colo, and Ariz in that order, and then some G5 schools before other P12 members to be honest. Ariz is the most shaky of that group though, I honestly don’t know how the league feels about it overall. The data is shaky.

Lots of moving parts… NBC decision makers holding many fates in their hands right now.
As always, thanks for your insight.

Why would the PAC stick together? Wouldn't they make more money in the Big12?

Who are the G5 teams that the Big12 is interested in?

What are your odds that ND stays independent?
 

Eight

Member
As always, thanks for your insight.

Why would the PAC stick together? Wouldn't they make more money in the Big12?

Who are the G5 teams that the Big12 is interested in?

What are your odds that ND stays independent?

would say tradition, but the four the big 12 are targeting are the 4 newest members

will say until the big 12 gets their next contract they aren't on significantly stronger footing as there are members in the big 12 who would bolt if asked
 

Purp

Active Member
A few quick tidbits I’ve picked up on the road recently:

Reminder that my current view on things remains unchanged: https://forum.killerfrogs.com/index.php?threads/big-12-expansion.231728/page-10#post-3165141

- If you assume no more moves are made, I do think the PAC 10 will stick together for now. I see a GOR agreement being unlikely, at least without a very short term, exit clauses, or other poison pills to satisfy ORE/Wash/Cal. More on that shortly.

- Big 12 still working hard on expansion options, including a few non power 5 schools. Don’t see anything happening until the BIG wraps up its work.

- I believe, based on some ongoing analysis work I’ve been a part of or privy to, that NBC is likely willing to rework their ND deal. However, the BIG may win out regardless, as their overall offering will be superior and ND folks are worried about playoff access down the road. They have a lot of leverage right now. The number floating around, $75 million a year for 6-7 ND games on NBC, is not as crazy as folks think. NBC could make money on that deal, but it would mean a substantial move into college football and sports overall, are they ready to do that?

- Lots of work going on right now at NBCUniversal to try and chart their path forward. There is a contingent that would love to see three games a day on NBC Saturday’s leading into their late night comedy content, plus a few games on USA and Peacock. ND would be their tent pole team, and the Big 12 is their other partner preference. However, are they willing to pay the premiums, not to mention all the related support costs around broadcasting and studio shows, hosts, etc.? Big $$ decision at a hard time, big gamble. Even if they say yes, Big 12 would still need another partner for their inventory of remaining Tier 2+3 content, but FOX and ESPN have space.

- It is my belief, based on some research I got my hands on, that the BIG Presidents would like to add Oregon, Washington, and Cal to the BIG along with ND. They think those four would round out the conference “perfectly.” Cal being added to the mix has to do with the $$ added from the Bay Area subs to the BIG network, and the belief that adding Cal would be an “institutional fit” and ward off the coming scrutiny and lawsuits. There hasn’t been enough said about this, there is real risk of turmoil around UCLA, and Cal has been working a TON of back channels re: getting in the BIG. None of these three teams are slam dunks, but I think the BIG will pull the trigger if ND hops on. If not, they may decide to wait for the next cycle. Always remember: This conference convinced itself to add Rutgers, they will do lots of crazy things you or I wouldn’t do.

- Big 12 preference is still ASU, Utah, Colo, and Ariz in that order, and then some G5 schools before other P12 members to be honest. Ariz is the most shaky of that group though, I honestly don’t know how the league feels about it overall. The data is shaky.

Lots of moving parts… NBC decision makers holding many fates in their hands right now.
Always interesting to hear your insight and I appreciate your willingness to share.

I'm curious what you think would happen if even one of the current PAC schools bolted to the B12. Would the PAC stay at 9 or would that start a mass exodus? I still feel like the B12's best play is to poach from the PAC b/c even 1-2 defections could sound the death knell for that league. Whether the new additions add financial value to the B12 or not wouldn't matter as much because their transfer would weaken one of the remaining power conferences and strengthen the B12 position. From there I think other more valuable prospective members would suddenly have much more interest in joining the league and potentially on much more favorable terms to the B12 too.

Are the AZ/mountain schools truly that committed to the PAC that they might be willing to risk their own long-terms stability while their conference mates play footsie with the B1G?
 
As always, thanks for your insight.

Why would the PAC stick together? Wouldn't they make more money in the Big12?

Who are the G5 teams that the Big12 is interested in?

What are your odds that ND stays independent?
PAC presidents preferring flexibility of no GOR or a less-rigid one and the $$ gap won’t likely be that significant on the grand scheme.

There are approximately 5 Go5 teams that have been evaluated. You could guess their names.

Better than 50/50.
 
Always interesting to hear your insight and I appreciate your willingness to share.

I'm curious what you think would happen if even one of the current PAC schools bolted to the B12. Would the PAC stay at 9 or would that start a mass exodus? I still feel like the B12's best play is to poach from the PAC b/c even 1-2 defections could sound the death knell for that league. Whether the new additions add financial value to the B12 or not wouldn't matter as much because their transfer would weaken one of the remaining power conferences and strengthen the B12 position. From there I think other more valuable prospective members would suddenly have much more interest in joining the league and potentially on much more favorable terms to the B12 too.

Are the AZ/mountain schools truly that committed to the PAC that they might be willing to risk their own long-terms stability while their conference mates play footsie with the B1G?
Idk what the PAC would do, but I think the odds of only one leaving are low. Safety in numbers.
 

Ron Swanson

Ticket Exchange Pass
Fuuu@&&@, man!!! Congrats on your kiddos!! I think you had a daughter before I left. Ruby, right? Damn, that F ing cancer. I’m sorry I wasn’t here. That was boaty of me. I hope you’re on the mend.
Ha, yep all good for the most part as far as the cancer itself goes. Still some lingering effects, but I’m good.

Had a little boy right at the beginning of COVID. He’s almost 2.5 now…

17AB8516-6538-4135-8B7B-5D41F5E8ECCE.jpeg
 

Hoosierfrog

Tier 1

Big Ten Reportedly 'No Longer as Interested' in Adding Oregon, More Pac-12 Schools​

PAUL KASABIANAUGUST 3, 2022

ke8hawkqik5vdfcqdtpz.jpg

MICHAEL HICKEY/GETTY IMAGES
THE BIG TEN WAS REPORTEDLY "EVALUATING THE WORTHINESS" OF ADDING A QUARTET OF PAC-12 TEAMS (OREGON, CAL, STANFORD AND WASHINGTON) INTO THE CONFERENCE, BUT DENNIS DODD OF CBS SPORTS REPORTED THAT INTEREST HAS SINCE COOLED DOWN:
"AFTER THE ANXIETY CAUSED LAST WEEK REGARDING FURTHER BIG TEN EXPANSION, INDUSTRY SOURCES HAVE INDICATED THE BIG TEN IS NO LONGER AS INTERESTED IN ADDING CALIFORNIA, OREGON, STANFORD AND WASHINGTON. RIGHTSHOLDERS WERE BALKING AT PAYING THE SAME AMOUNT FOR THOSE SCHOOLS AS THE 16 BIG TEN SCHOOLS GOING FORWARD ($80 MILLION-$100 MILLION).
"WHILE THOSE FOUR PROGRAMS MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE OPTIONS, THE BIG TEN IS CONCENTRATING ON ITS NEW DEAL IN 2023 WHILE TRYING TO LURE NOTRE DAME, WHICH HAS AN OPEN INVITATION. MORE AND MORE STAKEHOLDERS NOW BELIEVE THE FIGHTING IRISH WILL ULTIMATELY STAY INDEPENDENT."


THE BIG TEN CURRENTLY HAS 14 INSTITUTIONS, BUT THE CONFERENCE IS ADDING USC AND UCLA INTO THE FOLD IN 2024.
THE BIG TEN FINDS ITSELF IN A POSITION OF GREAT POWER BY ADDING TWO POWERHOUSE COLLEGE SPORTS PROGRAMS IN CALIFORNIA, EXPANDING THE CONFERENCE'S FOOTPRINT TO THE WEST COAST. THE LEAGUE DOESN'T NECESSARILY HAVE TO EXPAND ANY FURTHER AFTER PICKING UP USC AND UCLA, ALTHOUGH THE NOTRE DAME RUMORS STILL PERSIST.
THE BIG TEN AND SEC, WHICH WILL ALSO HAVE 16 TEAMS AFTER OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS JOIN THE MIX IN 2025, ULTIMATELY WILL STAND AS A PAIR OF SUPERCONFERENCES IN A FEW YEARS TIME.

















 
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