• The KillerFrogs

Georgia, Michigan and TCU

Wexahu

Full Member
These percentages make no sense. How does USC only have a 12% chance of making it? As long as they win the pac 12 championship game, they make it. It doesn’t matter what happens in any other game. This isn’t disputed by anyone.
And USC is a “big brand”, aren’t they. Lol.

Ya, it makes no sense. And it doesn’t mean anything anyway.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
In comparison with OSU and Alabama our two strongest arguments are wins over bowl teams and road wins. We are 8/6, OSU is 6/4, and Bama is 4/3.

FWIW in 2014 OSU had the edge over us 9/4 to 6/4.
 

Tshirt Fan

Active Member
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Hemingway

Active Member
Georgia is a 15 point favorite. They’ve beaten Tennessee, ND, and Oregon. Can Kelly pull off the upset. , he already beat Bama.
 

Bob Sugar

Active Member
These percentages make no sense. How does USC only have a 12% chance of making it? As long as they win the pac 12 championship game, they make it. It doesn’t matter what happens in any other game. This isn’t disputed by anyone.
It's dumb. ESPN's "FPI" predictor claims that if LSU, NC, Utah, and Purdue all get the upsets, and TCU and SC win as favorites, OSU is more likely the SC to make the final 4 (69% chance to 52% chance). Might as well throw that model in the garbage.
 

Planks

Active Member
In comparison with OSU and Alabama our two strongest arguments are wins over bowl teams and road wins. We are 8/6, OSU is 6/4, and Bama is 4/3.

FWIW in 2014 OSU had the edge over us 9/4 to 6/4.

I’m positive 11-1 OSU makes it in over us if we are 12-1, but 10-2 Alabama making it in over us just makes no sense. Their resume does not stack up well against TCU in any way. Their best, and likely only top 25 win was against Texas, a team we also beat, and we looked better while doing it.

TCU has the better record, the better win, and the better overall schedule if you do any sort of actual analysis beyond “SEC tough big boi league”
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I’m positive 11-1 OSU makes it in over us if we are 12-1, but 10-2 Alabama making it in over us just makes no sense. Their resume does not stack up well against TCU in any way. Their best, and likely only top 25 win was against Texas, a team we also beat, and we looked better while doing it.

TCU has the better record, the better win, and the better overall schedule if you do any sort of actual analysis beyond “SEC tough big boi league”
I'll bet you anything you want if we lose by less than 10 points Ohio State won't pass us.

How much?
 
I’m positive 11-1 OSU makes it in over us if we are 12-1, but 10-2 Alabama making it in over us just makes no sense. Their resume does not stack up well against TCU in any way. Their best, and likely only top 25 win was against Texas, a team we also beat, and we looked better while doing it.

TCU has the better record, the better win, and the better overall schedule if you do any sort of actual analysis beyond “SEC tough big boi league”
Unless it is a blowout loss we are in at 12-1, IMO.
 

Wexahu

Full Member
I’ll take that action. Assuming we lose by less than 10 and USC wins: $100 says OSU jumps us for top 4.

If I’m wrong and we still go CFP, I’ll gladly pay the $100. If I’m right, at least I get $100 out of the screw job.
Got it.

I'm good for it, as I'm sure you are as well. We'll see how it turns out.
 
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