KillerFrog InD KitchenSink
Active Member
Anyone into data visualization, here are the resumes of the 6 teams generally considered in the running for the playoff:
Georgia, Michigan and TCU
- Thread starter Sebastian S
- Start date
Barium Bomber
New Member
There was a common opponent that TCU and Ohio State had in 2014:
Minnesota vs. TCU - Game Summary - September 13, 2014 - ESPN
Ohio State vs. Minnesota - Game Summary - November 15, 2014 - ESPN
You be the judge.
JogginFrog
Active Member
If you want to see "no sense" and "dumb," look at FiveThirtyEight's model that shows 3-loss K-State as the 3 seed in the CFP if the top 4 teams lose this weekend.
This is an interesting chart, and favorable to us. I don't know how Composite Ranking is determined, but the fact we only have two opponents with a negative bodes well. The number of small circles is the only negative. USC's really is unimpressive relative to the others, and Georgia's is maybe even more impressive than what I would have thought.
Yep. One game. And both teams won.
And I was told by another poster that how many games you win on the road should matter more than anything, because road games are so much harder than home games. Where were these games against Minnesota played?
What people argue is important depends on their horse in the race.
JogginFrog
Active Member
I still think road wins are important.
Mostly I think models that don't make adjustments for where games are played do a poor job of differentiating between a team that plays 8 at home vs. one that plays 6 at home.
This year the number of wins over Bowl teams and number of road wins is important (as they should be), and point margins are not important (but they should be), except last week. In 2014, not so much.I still think road wins are important.
I know how this works.
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink
Active Member
Composite ranking is a composite of ESPN FPI, SP+, kelly ford, FEI, beta rank and CFB winning edge. Those all use the same scale and are more predictive type rankings. So it is isn't an average of ranks but he actually uses the values to average.
Really seems like OSU has a good argument over USC for #4.
Planks
Active Member
I like FiveThirtyEight, but I think this is a pretty good example of one of those times where using a model of some kind just isn’t a good way to make predictions.
The model can say Kansas State has a 20% chance of going to the playoffs, but I can say with 100% certainty that unless about 7-8 schools disband their football programs, effective immediately, then Kansas State has no chance.
I remember in 2014 FiveThirtyEight said we had a 99% chance of making the playoffs after we beat Iowa State in the last game. They had fed the model historical trends, which showed dropping in the rankings multiple spots after winning big never happens. Well it happened.
Only six teams have a greater than 0% chance. Seven if you want to throw Tennessee in there if every game is a 50-0 blowout by the underdogs.
I’d put their odds at about 0.000001%.
This Ain't Chopped Liver
Active Member
The bottom chart shows TCU’s two best wins over Texas and Kansas State are better than either of Ohio State’s, USC’s or Alabama’s two best. If USC wins this Saturday and TCU loses, that will still be the case.
That same chart shows us at #8, so I don't think we should necessarily put a lot of stock in that "best win" stat.
Right now OSU's win at Penn State is probably the best win of TCU, OSU and USC....our second best win is probably better than those two's.....but that 22-point loss to UM and not playing this weekend loom large against OSU.
KillerFrog InD KitchenSink
Active Member
The top chart is averages are all the predictor/ point margin type rankings where we have lagged this year because of close wins. But we've slowly risen by the predictor measure (the Iowa State margin really brought us up). Again you can see USC's issues- they really lag in predictor/ point spread type ranks.
Fred Garvin
I service the entire Quad Cities Area
Any statistical model that ranks Texas 6th this year is a Big Steaming Pile.
DelFrog
Active Member
and completely invalidates the supposed model.
Planks
Active Member
Worth noting that in the rankings from last week the committee had Penn State ranked #11 and Kansas State ranked only 1 spot behind at #12. If Kansas State beats TCU on Saturday and wins the Big 12 championship, I would have to think that Kansas State jumps Penn State in the rankings
Ironically, by losing we will make our “best win” better. How will the committee handle that?
Yes, our loss would be to a Top 10 team, and KSU will pass PSU. Not sure how far KSU can rise, but they'll definitely be in the Top 10.
HFrog1999
Member
The same goes for the committee, except their horse is named Ratings & Attendance.
It’s never been about the four best teams, or the four most deserving teams.
It’s always about generating ratings and ticket sales. That’s why their supposed criteria changes every week.
Cincinnati last year?
If it's always about that, Cincinnati would have never been a playoff team. It would have been so easy to justify their exclusion had they wanted to.
HFrog1999
Member
44,000 students. The second largest University in Ohio.
